long UVXY, data play
Quick summary of current market environment:
Current Macro event
The global economy slowed down in the first quarter due to, among others, the resurgence of COVID-19, growing geopolitical tensions, and faster tightening of monetary policy in the major advanced economies. Overseas inflationary pressures continued to rise, and the price of energy, metals, and agricultural products surged. Volatility has increased in global financial markets, and the prospects for a global economic recovery have become increasingly complex and uncertain.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank revised downward their global growth forecasts for this year, both expressing concerns about the economic slowdown.
The recovery of labour supply was sluggish in the advanced economies, and inflation continued to rise.
Trigger
Geopolitical conflicts between Ukraine/Russia war induced a series of food/commodity supply chain disruption combined with U.S covid19 massive QE (Quantitative Easing) packages have led to super charge in U.S inflation to historical high. Growing trade and supply chain disruptions further push up global inflation and derail the economic recovery, adding more uncertainties to the global economy whose recovery has already been uneven and insufficient.
VIX - known for volatility, fear indicator, surprise indicator, serves negative correlation with market direction
Trading Rationale:
CPI print higher than previously reported 8.6% = sticky inflationary environment = Fed need to be more aggressive to chase inflation rate = economic contraction - temporarily
Hence a short term long ultra-vix aiming to target $17 - $19 level
Current Macro event
The global economy slowed down in the first quarter due to, among others, the resurgence of COVID-19, growing geopolitical tensions, and faster tightening of monetary policy in the major advanced economies. Overseas inflationary pressures continued to rise, and the price of energy, metals, and agricultural products surged. Volatility has increased in global financial markets, and the prospects for a global economic recovery have become increasingly complex and uncertain.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank revised downward their global growth forecasts for this year, both expressing concerns about the economic slowdown.
The recovery of labour supply was sluggish in the advanced economies, and inflation continued to rise.
Trigger
Geopolitical conflicts between Ukraine/Russia war induced a series of food/commodity supply chain disruption combined with U.S covid19 massive QE (Quantitative Easing) packages have led to super charge in U.S inflation to historical high. Growing trade and supply chain disruptions further push up global inflation and derail the economic recovery, adding more uncertainties to the global economy whose recovery has already been uneven and insufficient.
VIX - known for volatility, fear indicator, surprise indicator, serves negative correlation with market direction
Trading Rationale:
CPI print higher than previously reported 8.6% = sticky inflationary environment = Fed need to be more aggressive to chase inflation rate = economic contraction - temporarily
Hence a short term long ultra-vix aiming to target $17 - $19 level
Trade closed: stop reached:
lost on this one