supere

Phoenix returns in centurion form

Long
TVC:VIX   Volatility S&P 500 Index
Never did I imagine it would take so many months for the Phoenix to recover from the March battle. Yet, what I observe now is that it has evolved into yet another deadlier form that could now devastate the market for eternity. (Not joking.)

I was right about the first wave up in February. While this market rally has been so strong it has turned even most bears into bulls, or capitulated them, there were always undercurrents of a low lying and deceptive bear market hiding in the shadows. Today, it might have come out to play.

One day is not enough data to claim anything, but if I don't throw out a warning, everything could be lost in three
days. This is the power of the bear and Phoenix combined.

Comments

@supere Still too early IMO. October is less than a month away which was my original forecast back in April. Real take-off is in 2-4 weeks, this is just the warning shot. GL :)
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supere Throwthethrowaway11
@Throwthethrowaway11, why a set month? Everything already nice and lined up now.
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@supere, i feel like that has been stated many times leading up to now. I would argue it’s not. Momentum is building, that is for sure but I don’t think it has begun to climax yet. I believe Indicies rally back to ATH violently, maybe make minor new ones before stalling and truly free falling.
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supere Throwthethrowaway11
@Throwthethrowaway11, Always a possibility. However, dropping hard now would be allow the market to achieve maximum destruction: lay waste to 500 billion$ worth of speculative call options and leave the majority of bears wide-eyed in shock. Most bulls at this point are buying every dip still and most bears I know are waiting for a double top no matter what. The double top does not need to come imho.
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tfinavia Throwthethrowaway11
@Throwthethrowaway11, Can you update or create a VIX and VVIX idea mate? The one in March was an awesome plus. It's time to ride the holy horses now. Thanks!
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supere tfinavia
@tfinavia, My friend, I have been wrong for 9 months! Why are you even looking at my posts??? The FED has taken complete control of the markets. There is nothing organic remaining.
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tfinavia supere
@supere, friend, I know things are unreal looking but all markets have to come back to reality at some point. To my knowledge, all professionals players do expect that. I am not one of them, but I do read about it and one of such great player is Jeremy Grantham. I'm just trying to catch a short trade and don't want to get sucked into the false bull hope. Please see the daily and weekly VIXM and share insight if you happen to spot any. On weekly, it has touched and tested 50 MA and I'm trying to trace its daily and weekly footsteps these days. Also, I'm watching and following VVIX but don't have much clues on weekly basis unless it starts rising rapidly. Thanks and hang in there!
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supere tfinavia
@tfinavia, I created an update for the heck of it. :P
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Back to Ashes.
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The pin burst the VIX bubble today ending beneath June 15th high. The stock indices exceeded .786 retracement of 3rd wave but no longer, is probable Wave C ending this morning. Expect an A-B-C countertrend correction then stocks will rally in 5th Wave probably for several months. Another false start to a bear market.
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