CBOE:VIX3M   CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index
I have been finding VIX3M provides a lot smoother and cleaner version of the vix. As you can see before significant vix spikes there are signals that take 6 months+ to develop. Before vix spikes we can see the loss in momentum when vix starts to base failing to make new lows or significant new lows as well as MACD starts up-trending on the weekly chart. I have marked off the key significant levels on the vix. We appear to be at one of those levels that so happens to be the same level the vix first found a reaction off coming off the 2009 vix spike.

I would expect the vix to start basing here but always remain open to anything. If we do start basing here that could indicate we will get a large vix spike later this year or early next and a give back of 15-20% in the S&P500. I remain net long the market but have bids in to pick up vix calls in Jan-March 2022.

MACD still remains in a downtrend so we have yet to see the momentum start to shift bullish in vix which keeps my bullishly biased until this changes. We still should expect the possibility of minor single digit percentage pull back and possible vix spikes up to 30 while the general uptrend in the S&P500 continues. Hedging these smaller spikes still remains a consistently profitable strategy by buying vix calls on the bottom channel of the trend we are currently in.

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