VVV | Forecast

HGCRD Updated   
NYSE:VVV   Valvoline Inc.
Bias: Positive.

Sentiment: Optimistic.

Emoji (emotion): Confident 🏌️‍♂️ .

Null Hypothesis: Buy.

Alternative Hypothesis: Sell.

Signals: ..

Position: A short term swing trade.

Notes: I'm anticipating an earnings surprise.

Other: ..

Disclaimer: My journal entry is not a complete prospectus, please consider it accordingly.

About the Author:
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About the Security: "Valvoline, Inc. engages in producing, marketing and supplying of engine & automotive maintenance products and services. The firm operates through the following segments: Quick Lubes, Core North America and International. The Quick Lubes segment provides services to passenger car and light truck quick lube market through company-owned and independent franchised retail quick lube service center stores and independent express care stores that service vehicles with valvoline products. The Core North America segment sells engine and automotive maintenance products in the United States and Canada to retailers, installers and heavy-duty customers to service vehicles and equipment. The International segment sells engine and automotive products in more than 140 countries outside of the United States and Canada for the maintenance of consumer and commercial vehicles and equipment. Its products include motor oil, gear oil, pro-v racing and antifreeze and radiator. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Lexington, KY."
(Analysis) My 5 week target price is in the $38 territory.
"I could easily see VVV trading above $35 by the end of this week, let alone next week."
(Follow up) I'm going to hold my journal entry open until the tolerance range is reached.
(Portfolio Management) I recommend buying into any current position held, or buying to open a new position; the upside for VVV will last all quarter.
(Analysis) The 2/18 Calls at a $35 strike price are an excellent investment to make, they are currently price at 15 cents and offer over %100 ROI. Unfortunately the option chain has been frozen all morning, and the only chance of pulling VVV's options out of the garbage is to increase their liquidity. None the less I think it's an explosive situation otherwise I wouldn't tarnish my reputation by documenting it in my open journal.
"One drop of volume in the option chain, and we're going to see Valvoline logo's on NASA rockets!"
(Reference) Attached is a nice tutorial for small capital traders:
(Follow up) At the end of the day it seems all the option prices got left behind, I can only reason the incident was caused by illiquidity not the Option Greeks. Going into tomorrow I believe there is a greater chance for option liquidity because of the attention VVV's stock chart will receive in the press tonight; after all it was a profitable day for shareholders. To put things into perspective the $35 calls were initially priced around the 35 cent range at the open of $32.67 the stock closed at $1.24 higher at $33.91, a valuation that should have increased the option contract from 35 cents to the neighborhood of 80 cents. The volatility was limited but the low volume and lack of bid/ask orders stands out the most, truly the options are about $1.00 away from being in the money and have over a week left until expiration but regardless still reflect a substantial loss in extrinsic value. To me it sounds like the doing of the market maker, even scarier is the fact that if the contracts were in the money the only function they could serve is exercising them for the stock because there's no one in the market interested in trading the contracts (no buyers for the sellers or sellers for the buyers).
"Always remember the world is too small for the market every time you go up to bat against a stock option chain."
(Follow up) the option volume is still low this morning and the implied volatility is fluctuating around 1%, although there is a good chance the $35 calls will expire in the money.
"Personally, if I shorted the $35 calls I wouldn't be sitting comfortably right now and the room temperature would be well beyond warm."
(Portfolio Management) I recommend to keep buying into VVV's upside because I think it will continue making positive changes for the rest of the week.
(Analysis) to reiterate my 5 week target is set at $38 minimum.
(Follow Up) I think the recent negative changes in SPY may have had a broad impact on some of the industries within the market.
(Follow up) the data has reached the end of my tolerance and is still within an acceptable profit range, although it didn't hit my ceiling I will accept the current target. I believe the lack of performance was largely contributed by the S&P 500's recent dispensation.
Trade closed: target reached:
"The null hypothesis was accepted, journal entry concluded."

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