Silver's daily downtrend should hold the mid-$14 level then $16+

FX:XAGUSD   Silver / U.S. Dollar
1515 4 22
Using the building blocks of trends (my "Time at Mode" methodology), I have constructed a logical "forecast" for the next month for the price of silver             .

The amount of accumulation that occurred under $14.50 suggests to me that those buyers are in control and that RE-TESTS of $14.30-$14.10 are going to be unlikely. For now, the current daily and weekly decline is a shake-out of the latest run-up in prices .
Commercial hedgers have re-established their largest short positions and have now trapped short term bulls in long positions. If you refer to Commitments of Traders data you can see how reluctant prices are to rise when Commercial Hedgers have large short positions on in silver             .

The TIME AT MODE system reveals 9-days of distribution at the 15.20-15.30 level, and that means 9-days of downside action ending on March 8th. What we can look for is a drop in price that equals the range of trading around the 9-day mode, so that implies a drop to the 14.50-14.40 level.

Last week was also a range expansion decline week, so that implies a drop of the same within the next three weeks or else it is a failure and a "trap".

I'm going to assume that the downside targets fail on all levels, daily and weekly and that the massive support zone 14.30 and below holds.

We can use 14.10 as our stop and then move that up by 10 cents a week or about 2 cents a day once we establish positions.

This is an early call and it isn't my normal method to provide a chart right at the time of action. If you can handle a bit of losses along the way, you could average into your position for the next 5 days and then place a stop under the 5-day low once complete.

All the best,


14.76 last XAGUSD            
Trade closed: target reached: Well, how about that! It made it. Very nice.
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Nice rally Tim
+1 Reply
Nice call TIM!
You are already in the black. Who would have thought? I bet not many
+1 Reply
bracken bracken
To take contrarian views obviously doesn't give you many thumbs up (agrees). How could it? That is just too bad.
In my humble opinion off course
+1 Reply
Love your work Tim and appreciate you sharing. Realise I need to hit you up about getting a better Time at Mode understanding. Over simplistically trend line set ups also support bullish sentiment
+3 Reply
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