Gold message reading:
Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at a revised 339,000 in May, above consensus of 190,000 versus 253,000. The U.S. unemployment rate came in at 3.7 percent in May, above market expectations of 3.5 percent and a previous reading of 3.4 percent.
Commentary: US Treasury yields moved higher after the non-farm report. It will be interesting to see if this knee-jerk sell-off just after the data is released can continue. Headline job growth and revisions are making waves, and wages are weak. We have not yet seen the market fully recover to the 25 basis point rate hike in July, while a pause in June remains the base case with a 9 basis point rate hike forecast. A lot depends on the CPI and how hard the Fed hawks can push their case.
Commerzbank said the May jobs report showed a mixed picture. While job growth was a surprising 339,000, other details pointed to a slowdown. In addition to strong job creation, the data point to a cooling labor market. That leaves the Fed on the sidelines at the June 13/14 FOMC meeting, or at least on hold. The Fed can then wait and see how things play out, and tighten more at a later date if necessary.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls report did little to change the Fed's debate about whether to hold interest rates steady this month, writes Nick Timiraos, the Fed's voice. But it increases the likelihood that officials will combine a pause in rate hikes in June with a greater inclination to raise rates later this year, with a continued strong labor market likely to lead officials to raise rates more than expected. The US Labour Department said on Friday that 339,000 jobs were added in May and revised figures showed the economy added 93,000 jobs in March and April, indicating strong demand for Labour. But a separate survey of households showed employment fell in May, pushing the unemployment rate up to 3.7 per cent. At the same time, the report suggests that tight labor markets aren't currently leading to an acceleration in pay growth. Taken together, the data underscore the challenge facing Fed Chairman Colin Powell in rallying the central bank's rate-setting committee around the idea of 'skipping' a rate hike this month, and officials who already support a June move may become more convinced of the need for a move.
Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the Federal Reserve should be open to raising interest rates by half a percentage point in July if it opts to sit on its hands at this month's policy meeting. Overheating is once again the main risk for the Fed to watch out for. He said the May jobs data released on Friday was generally strong. Although the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 per cent from 3.4 in April, the unemployment data from the household survey can be "noisy", especially in May when schools are out.
US President Joe Biden signed into law a bill on the federal government's debt ceiling and budget on Wednesday, temporarily averting a default on the country's debt. The bill suspends the debt ceiling until early 2025 and caps spending for fiscal years 2024 and 2025.
According to CME's Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in June is 74.7%, while the probability of a quarter-point hike is 25.3%. The probability of keeping rates at their current level by July is 32.1 per cent, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rise is 53.5 per cent and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rise is 14.4 per cent.
Technical analysis of gold:
Gold had a swallowing pattern on Friday, with the day's strong negative line swallowing the positive line of the previous two sessions. This pattern is seen as a reversal signal, indicating that gold's rally may be over and could fall further. Monday's action is expected to extend the decline, while the upper area between 1955-1960 will be an area of resistance. Guide personal opinion, gold even if there is a backstep, it may be weak backstep, rather than a reasonable backstep.
The 4-hour chart shows the price movement of gold. According to Friday's chart, the horizontal pressure above is around 1985 and the support below is around 1930, creating a range between 1930 and 1985. The current board shows a volatile downward movement in gold prices, and this volatile downward trend is expected to continue. The guide thinks gold is likely to retest the 1930 support level. The price of gold has already fallen below the 1950 level, so it is more likely that it will continue to test 1930.
In the 1-hour cycle, a double top shape was recorded near the periodic peak 1983, and a series of spindle lines and small solid lines were subsequently recorded as consolidation, and then the overall structure of the tower top shape was recorded again, with a partial peak and a short rebound ended. At present, the market near the support level 1948 recorded a series of 4 small Yin shocks down, short - term trend to stop falling, low caution to chase empty. In summary, today's gold short-term operation ideas on the guide gold division suggested to rebound short, call back to do more is auxiliary, above short-term focus on 1955-1958 line resistance, below short-term focus on 1930-1932 line support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Gold operation strategy refer to the sell strategy:
Strategy one: gold rebound near 1955-1958 batch sell, two tenths of the position, stop losses of 6 points, the target is near 1945-1940, break to see 1930 line;
Buying strategy:
Strategy two: gold pullback near 1930-1932 batch buy, two tenth position, stop loss 6 points, the target near 1940-1945, break to see 1950 line;
Just entered the gold market, capital suffered serious shrinkage, income is not ideal friends, you can pay attention to me, I will according to your entry point, capital size, give you a reasonable operation plan.
Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at a revised 339,000 in May, above consensus of 190,000 versus 253,000. The U.S. unemployment rate came in at 3.7 percent in May, above market expectations of 3.5 percent and a previous reading of 3.4 percent.
Commentary: US Treasury yields moved higher after the non-farm report. It will be interesting to see if this knee-jerk sell-off just after the data is released can continue. Headline job growth and revisions are making waves, and wages are weak. We have not yet seen the market fully recover to the 25 basis point rate hike in July, while a pause in June remains the base case with a 9 basis point rate hike forecast. A lot depends on the CPI and how hard the Fed hawks can push their case.
Commerzbank said the May jobs report showed a mixed picture. While job growth was a surprising 339,000, other details pointed to a slowdown. In addition to strong job creation, the data point to a cooling labor market. That leaves the Fed on the sidelines at the June 13/14 FOMC meeting, or at least on hold. The Fed can then wait and see how things play out, and tighten more at a later date if necessary.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls report did little to change the Fed's debate about whether to hold interest rates steady this month, writes Nick Timiraos, the Fed's voice. But it increases the likelihood that officials will combine a pause in rate hikes in June with a greater inclination to raise rates later this year, with a continued strong labor market likely to lead officials to raise rates more than expected. The US Labour Department said on Friday that 339,000 jobs were added in May and revised figures showed the economy added 93,000 jobs in March and April, indicating strong demand for Labour. But a separate survey of households showed employment fell in May, pushing the unemployment rate up to 3.7 per cent. At the same time, the report suggests that tight labor markets aren't currently leading to an acceleration in pay growth. Taken together, the data underscore the challenge facing Fed Chairman Colin Powell in rallying the central bank's rate-setting committee around the idea of 'skipping' a rate hike this month, and officials who already support a June move may become more convinced of the need for a move.
Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the Federal Reserve should be open to raising interest rates by half a percentage point in July if it opts to sit on its hands at this month's policy meeting. Overheating is once again the main risk for the Fed to watch out for. He said the May jobs data released on Friday was generally strong. Although the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 per cent from 3.4 in April, the unemployment data from the household survey can be "noisy", especially in May when schools are out.
US President Joe Biden signed into law a bill on the federal government's debt ceiling and budget on Wednesday, temporarily averting a default on the country's debt. The bill suspends the debt ceiling until early 2025 and caps spending for fiscal years 2024 and 2025.
According to CME's Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in June is 74.7%, while the probability of a quarter-point hike is 25.3%. The probability of keeping rates at their current level by July is 32.1 per cent, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rise is 53.5 per cent and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rise is 14.4 per cent.
Technical analysis of gold:
Gold had a swallowing pattern on Friday, with the day's strong negative line swallowing the positive line of the previous two sessions. This pattern is seen as a reversal signal, indicating that gold's rally may be over and could fall further. Monday's action is expected to extend the decline, while the upper area between 1955-1960 will be an area of resistance. Guide personal opinion, gold even if there is a backstep, it may be weak backstep, rather than a reasonable backstep.
The 4-hour chart shows the price movement of gold. According to Friday's chart, the horizontal pressure above is around 1985 and the support below is around 1930, creating a range between 1930 and 1985. The current board shows a volatile downward movement in gold prices, and this volatile downward trend is expected to continue. The guide thinks gold is likely to retest the 1930 support level. The price of gold has already fallen below the 1950 level, so it is more likely that it will continue to test 1930.
In the 1-hour cycle, a double top shape was recorded near the periodic peak 1983, and a series of spindle lines and small solid lines were subsequently recorded as consolidation, and then the overall structure of the tower top shape was recorded again, with a partial peak and a short rebound ended. At present, the market near the support level 1948 recorded a series of 4 small Yin shocks down, short - term trend to stop falling, low caution to chase empty. In summary, today's gold short-term operation ideas on the guide gold division suggested to rebound short, call back to do more is auxiliary, above short-term focus on 1955-1958 line resistance, below short-term focus on 1930-1932 line support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Gold operation strategy refer to the sell strategy:
Strategy one: gold rebound near 1955-1958 batch sell, two tenths of the position, stop losses of 6 points, the target is near 1945-1940, break to see 1930 line;
Buying strategy:
Strategy two: gold pullback near 1930-1932 batch buy, two tenth position, stop loss 6 points, the target near 1940-1945, break to see 1950 line;
Just entered the gold market, capital suffered serious shrinkage, income is not ideal friends, you can pay attention to me, I will according to your entry point, capital size, give you a reasonable operation plan.
Trade active:
Today, gold is running in the range we forecast. We bought gold in 1940 in advance and finally closed trading in 1955, which also made a very good profit. Now 1955 has been effectively broken, and gold will continue to run upward
Trade active:
Today, gold is running in the range we forecast. We bought gold in 1940 in advance and finally closed trading in 1955, which also made a very good profit. Now 1955 has been effectively broken, and gold will continue to run upward
Trade active:
Today gold is in 1955-58 buy, tp1975-1980