Cyclial Path Research in Gold
Highly complex to have an opinion about how waves will unfold over time - and the complexity increases with time.
Nevertheless, I have to have a bigger outlook as a basis for the trades I take.
This is not by any means an exact science, it is solely based on what I perceive as a likely outcome of golds price-path in 2017.
Do your own research to trade, no one can trade for you.
Nevertheless, I have to have a bigger outlook as a basis for the trades I take.
This is not by any means an exact science, it is solely based on what I perceive as a likely outcome of golds price-path in 2017.
Do your own research to trade, no one can trade for you.
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To keep closer track (with some finer adjustments)
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We might head into the daily cycle low at this point. Expect this to be at max to 1257. If gold manages to hold above 1257, it is no reason to be worried, but if it closes below, it is more concerning for bulls.
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According to Gann, important price resistances and supports were set at particular trading days during the course of time. Currently, in gold, we are in a such range of prices, spanning between approx 1257 and 1281. Above this range it's clearly bullish and below bearish, while in the range price can be considered more neutral.
Many traders will become very bearish as soon as price drops one or two days and forget about the underlying main trend. Keep the big picture in mind, and buy into weakness, sell into strength.
Many traders will become very bearish as soon as price drops one or two days and forget about the underlying main trend. Keep the big picture in mind, and buy into weakness, sell into strength.
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Correction: The expected zone is between 1267 and 1251. Hence, as long as we close above 1251, there are no problems with trend. Minimum pullback is expected to 1267.
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Gold reached the minimum pullback level of 1267 and some cents and bounced nicely off the level.
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Many will try to re-short. But they forget its the 10 year anniversary of the trend-change in 2007 AND an end to a 4 year consolidation cycle. I think they will get their heads ripped off.
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The trend is your friend :)
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Gold is out on a rampage to take shorts. Now it met a critical resistance zone. Only because it made a new high doesn't validate a breakout. It must close some dollars above the zone to validate. We are at a critical zone right now.
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Resistance zone crushed. 1300 touched. Bull is set free. 132X-133X is first real challenge.
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Today is the first real challenge of the goldbull. After harsh profit-taking at the 1300 area it retraced sharply. If now it manages to re-capture the 1295-area its promising for longs.
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Today at Jackson Hole event it is expected that focus on the QE programme is brought up. Reduction in the QE programme, all other things equal, should raise nominal interest rates. You often hear that gold is inversely related to the interest rates. That is partly true. However, it is the case with the real interest rate, which is the nominal adjusted for inflation.
While I think that there is a chance for a reduction in QE and increased nominal interest rates, the unknown variable is the rate of inflation.
By studying several commodity cycles, I have come to conclusion that in the 2nd part of 2017 and in 2018, many cycles should start to turn upwards, in other words, gold may rise on the basis of increasing commodity prices.
Furthermore, reduction in QE, is also removal of cheap liquidity, putting pressure on the stock market, reducing stocks relative attractiveness as an investment vehicle.
Let's see what the future bring.
While I think that there is a chance for a reduction in QE and increased nominal interest rates, the unknown variable is the rate of inflation.
By studying several commodity cycles, I have come to conclusion that in the 2nd part of 2017 and in 2018, many cycles should start to turn upwards, in other words, gold may rise on the basis of increasing commodity prices.
Furthermore, reduction in QE, is also removal of cheap liquidity, putting pressure on the stock market, reducing stocks relative attractiveness as an investment vehicle.
Let's see what the future bring.