GOLD Extends Declines in Moody Markets as Risk-Off Sentiment...

Gold Extends Declines in Moody Markets as Risk-Off Sentiment Prevails

Amidst turbulent market conditions characterized by risk-off sentiment, the price of gold continues its decline. The precious metal is facing headwinds primarily driven by concerns related to interest rates and the persistent rise in US Treasury yields. Gold spot prices are on the verge of challenging eight-month lows, with further downside potential looming.

Gold's Recent Performance

Gold spot prices have faced a consistent downturn, declining by $20 per ounce on Monday to reach $1,830.00 on the charts. This marks the sixth consecutive trading day of losses for gold, and the XAU/USD has closed either flat or bearish in nine of the last ten daily trading sessions.

The decline in gold prices is largely attributed to market concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. As a result, investors have been seeking refuge in safer assets, contributing to the downward pressure on gold.

Interest Rate and Yield Concerns

One of the primary drivers behind gold's recent struggles is the rising interest rates and US Treasury yields. The continued ascent of these indicators has led to uncertainty and risk aversion in the market, prompting investors to reevaluate their portfolios.

Investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance on interest rates. While the Fed is expected to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, it would require a significant increase in inflation expectations to trigger a new rate hike cycle. Investors are hopeful that the lack of significant shifts in the Fed's rate expectations, often referred to as the "dot plot," will help cap further losses for gold.

Hawkish Fed and Elevated Yields

The Fed's commitment to a "higher-for-longer" interest rate strategy has driven US Treasury bond yields to multi-decade highs. This has, in turn, bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which has contributed to the decline in gold prices. The market consensus is that the Fed will continue to pursue its hawkish stance, with expectations of at least one more rate hike by the end of the year.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's remarks further reinforced these expectations. Mester emphasized that inflation risks remain skewed to the upside, and the central bank will need to maintain restrictive rates to achieve its 2% inflation target. This reaffirms the Fed's commitment to tightening monetary policy and diverts flows away from non-yielding assets like gold.

Risk-Aversion vs. Safe-Haven Status

Despite the generally weaker risk tone in the market, which typically favors safe-haven assets like gold, the precious metal has struggled to find support. Factors such as mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) and the passage of a US stopgap funding bill have failed to provide sustained backing for gold. Concerns about a deeper economic downturn have overshadowed these developments, highlighting the dominance of interest rate and yield concerns.

In conclusion, gold's recent decline reflects a complex interplay of factors, including interest rate expectations, elevated US Treasury yields, and USD strength. While gold retains its safe-haven status, it remains under pressure due to prevailing market conditions. Investors will continue to closely monitor the Fed's stance on interest rates and other macroeconomic developments to gauge the future direction of gold prices.


Our preference

Short positions below 1841.00 with targets at 1815.00 & 1807.00 in extension.