XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details

Gold price retreated and closed at the $2,000 mark for the first time since November 24, extending its losses. This decline follows the latest US employment report, indicating an improving labor market. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the creation of 199K jobs, exceeding forecasts, while the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.7%. Additionally, University of Michigan (UoM) data showed increased optimism among American households about the economy and a downward revision of inflation expectations. Market focus turns to the upcoming US inflation report and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Inflation is expected to remain at 3.1% annually, with no change in monthly inflation, while the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to stay at 4% unchanged YoY and 0.3% monthly. Traders anticipate the US central bank to maintain current interest rates. As we gear up for a busy week filled with high-impact events from the US economic docket, how should we prepare?

XAUUSD Technical Analysis:
In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities.

The $2,000 zone will be our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullish momentum is sustained then a continued buying pressure above this zone will serve as a platform for new highs. However, if price action drops below the $2,000 level and selling pressure persists below the zone, we could witness renewed selling pressure back into the demand zone at the $1,960 zone.

Dive into the latest Gold market dynamics! Stay informed for strategic investment decisions.
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It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.

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Comment:

The price of Gold continues to linger around the pivotal 2,000 zone, highlighting the significance of this area. Geopolitical uncertainties are acting as a buffer, potentially curbing further declines ahead of crucial economic events scheduled for this week.
However, it's important to recognize that Gold is still facing selling pressure, attributed to the stability in equity markets, reduced expectations for a March Fed rate cut, and a modest uptick in the USD, all of which are weighing on the safe-haven asset. Market sentiment appears cautious to make aggressive moves ahead of this week's key data and central bank events. As a result, caution is advised and it's essential to closely monitor how the market responds to the support line around the 1,995 zone; Should the price demonstrate resilience and avoid breaking down this level, a reversal scenario could be in the making.
We will delve deeper into this market condition in our upcoming live session. Stay tuned for further discussion.

Good Morning

Trade active:

#XAUUSD

UPDATE

Sell position triggered but I am beginning to notice buying pressure resume around the 1,991.50 level; if this persists a breakout/retest of the key level at the 2,000 level will be welcoming buying opportunities.

Trade active:

UPDATE

Two sell positions triggered with 140pips in profit; protect all positions while we look out for more trading opportunities.

Trade active:

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200 pips running from two positions; protect positions as we look out for more trading opportunities.

Trade closed manually:

As selling pressures ease, all short positions on this asset have been closed with a reasonable amount of profit, marking a respite for the precious metal during the Asian session. As a result, market participants are now adopting a cautious stance, anticipating the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is expected to provide a new sense of direction.
Amidst the backdrop of a belief that the US central bank has concluded its tightening policy and could initiate rate cuts by the first half of 2024, the previously bullish momentum in the US Dollar, spurred by positive job data, appears to be tempered. Concurrently, concerns about the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East act as a catalyst, providing a supportive backdrop for the safe-haven appeal of Gold.
Given these developments, our attention remains fixed on the unfolding price dynamics as market participants brace for the CPI data today. The pivotal $10 trading range, spanning from $1,991.50 to $1,981.00, will be closely monitored, serving as the focal point for today's trading activities.

Good Morning

Comment:

Gold appears to have relinquished its momentum, following the release of US CPI figures that aligned with market expectations. The recent ascent of the benchmark 10-year US T-bond yield is also limiting the upside for XAUUSD. In navigating this scenario, I lean towards exploring potential selling opportunities only at the breakdown/retest of the 1,976 level. Conversely, a breakout/retest of the 1,991.50 mark would signal a favorable entry point for potential buying opportunities. Please exercise patience as the delicate balance between economic indicators and market dynamics remains a key factor in shaping our strategic approach.

Trade active:

As Gold faces persistent selling pressure, it descends to a three-week low, breaching the crucial 1,976 level and activating a sell position. The release of US consumer price data, coupled with a robust jobs report last Friday, diminishes prospects for an early Federal Reserve policy easing. Consequently, funds appear to be moving away from safe-haven assets, fueled by optimism for additional stimulus measures in China.

However, geopolitical uncertainties act as a counterbalance, offering potential support to bullish sentiments. Our stance remains bearish as long as prices are below both the 1,976 level and the descending trendline. As attention now shifts to the upcoming US Retail sales data, the levels indicated on the chart will serve as our guiding reference for today's trading activities.

Good Morning

Trade active:

#XAUUSD

UPDATE

Three buy positions triggered; protect positions as we look out for new trading opportunities. We shall discuss this development during our live session tomorrow.

Good Night

Trade active:

Amidst the surge in Gold prices, our four buy positions have yielded over 1,400 pips in profit as price action surpassed $2,000 during the Asian session. The weakening US Dollar and Treasury yield, following the Federal Reserve meeting, have bolstered safe-haven assets. The Fed's decision to maintain the interest rate at 5.25%–5.50% aligned with market expectations. During the press conference, Powell's statement about the Fed's willingness to cut rates, even without a U.S. economic recession in 2024, resonated with market participants.

Today, the focus will be on key US economic data, such as the weekly Jobless Claims and Retail Sales reports, which will likely guide market movements. Given this landscape, it's imperative to secure our existing positions while remaining vigilant for new trading opportunities.

Good Morning

Trade active:

UPDATE

Trade active:

#XAUUSD

UPDATE

Trade active:

All buy six buy positions are still intact and running with a total of over 1,700 pips in profit; protect all positions as we look out for new opportunities.

Trade active:

Our journey continues to be marked by success as our buy positions thrive, accumulating over 1,650 pips. as the price of Gold remains in a consolidative phase during the Asian session. Market sentiment reflects a nearly 60% likelihood of the Fed initiating interest rate cuts in March 2024, with the odds of a May rate cut currently standing at 90%. This expectation is capping significant upside for US bond yields and continues to weaken the US Dollar (USD), consequently lending support to safe-haven assets like gold. We will maintain a watchful eye on our buy positions while remaining open to new opportunities. However, we are mindful of the potential for a sell-off, as market participants may opt to secure profits from their positions ahead of the weekend hence we are committed to safeguarding our current buy positions.

Happy Friday!