Next week's headlines, commentary and technical outlook analysis
Despite the late Friday rally, gold continued to come under pressure and posted a weekly loss of more than 1%, driven mainly by strong macro data and some comments. hawkish comments by Fed officials.
Next week's highlights
Tuesday: US Existing Home Sales, Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: Minutes of FOMC February meeting, speech by New York Fed President Williams
Thursday: US Q4 GDP, US initial jobless claims
Friday: US PCE, US New Home Sales
Among them, the following data will be notable and below is a commentary on their impact on the market.
- S&P Global will publish US manufacturing and services PMIs for February. The overall Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is expected to be below 50, suggesting business activity in the private sector is continuing. continue to decrease.
If data shows rising wages continue to weigh on services sector input prices, the dollar could remain strong and put limited pressure on gold's already insignificant rally.
On the other hand, weaker-than-expected PMI data and employment-related comments suggesting a decline in private sector payrolls are likely to provide support for gold prices and put pressure on gold prices. with the US Dollar.
- Minutes of the FOMC February meeting will also be interesting as we will need to see if there are any signs of a temporary slowdown in inflation. If there is any signal that the inflation deceleration is only temporary, gold will be under pressure because this stimulates the psychology of betting on the Fed will maintain high interest rates to control inflation in the future. Of course this is good for the Dollar and bad for gold.
- The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will also release fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, which is expected to create great volatility in the market.
Finally, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, will be released later in the week.
The core PCE index is expected to grow 0.4% monthly, but the annual growth rate is expected to slow to 4.1% in January from 4.4% in December.
For this data, it is easy to make a decision because lower than expected PCE inflation data will be seen as pressure on the Dollar and vice versa, it also has a correlation effect on gold price.
Gold price technical outlook analysis
On the short-term technical chart (H4), although gold corrected late last Friday's session, it was still capped by key resistance at 1,845 USD price point of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement.
The MACD is crossing and curving up, but the crossover is very low and the histogram volume is negligible, so this is not considered a strong bullish signal. On the other hand, the RSI is upward but bent when testing the 50% position, which would normally be a bearish signal.
Also, the mid-term trend is a downtrend with trendline (b) on the technical chart, as long as this trendline is not broken above then gold does not qualify for more upside technically. .
The technical outlook for gold is currently bearish with some notable price positions below, and the short-term target for the early part of the week is $1,825.
Support: 1,825 – 1,815 – 1,791USD
Resistance: 1,845 – 1,850USD
It can be said that, from a technical point of view, the current position is a positive and beneficial position for short sellers of this metal.
Next week's highlights
Tuesday: US Existing Home Sales, Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: Minutes of FOMC February meeting, speech by New York Fed President Williams
Thursday: US Q4 GDP, US initial jobless claims
Friday: US PCE, US New Home Sales
Among them, the following data will be notable and below is a commentary on their impact on the market.
- S&P Global will publish US manufacturing and services PMIs for February. The overall Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is expected to be below 50, suggesting business activity in the private sector is continuing. continue to decrease.
If data shows rising wages continue to weigh on services sector input prices, the dollar could remain strong and put limited pressure on gold's already insignificant rally.
On the other hand, weaker-than-expected PMI data and employment-related comments suggesting a decline in private sector payrolls are likely to provide support for gold prices and put pressure on gold prices. with the US Dollar.
- Minutes of the FOMC February meeting will also be interesting as we will need to see if there are any signs of a temporary slowdown in inflation. If there is any signal that the inflation deceleration is only temporary, gold will be under pressure because this stimulates the psychology of betting on the Fed will maintain high interest rates to control inflation in the future. Of course this is good for the Dollar and bad for gold.
- The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will also release fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, which is expected to create great volatility in the market.
Finally, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, will be released later in the week.
The core PCE index is expected to grow 0.4% monthly, but the annual growth rate is expected to slow to 4.1% in January from 4.4% in December.
For this data, it is easy to make a decision because lower than expected PCE inflation data will be seen as pressure on the Dollar and vice versa, it also has a correlation effect on gold price.
Gold price technical outlook analysis
On the short-term technical chart (H4), although gold corrected late last Friday's session, it was still capped by key resistance at 1,845 USD price point of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement.
The MACD is crossing and curving up, but the crossover is very low and the histogram volume is negligible, so this is not considered a strong bullish signal. On the other hand, the RSI is upward but bent when testing the 50% position, which would normally be a bearish signal.
Also, the mid-term trend is a downtrend with trendline (b) on the technical chart, as long as this trendline is not broken above then gold does not qualify for more upside technically. .
The technical outlook for gold is currently bearish with some notable price positions below, and the short-term target for the early part of the week is $1,825.
Support: 1,825 – 1,815 – 1,791USD
Resistance: 1,845 – 1,850USD
It can be said that, from a technical point of view, the current position is a positive and beneficial position for short sellers of this metal.
