Hello Traders,
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of GOLD - XAUUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 42 - 12 Oct
M > After reaching its all all time high and ending the said month in Doji price pulled back for correction. After massive impulse we expect price to correct at least till 0.382 FIB level on last monthly impulse. Price did make an attempt to drop till 0.382 level but could not reach it. We can expect price to drop till this level.
W > Placing FIB on last weekly impulse we can see that 0.382 and 0.618 coincide perfectly with previous (2011) high and candle open position respectively. Price dropped in between 0.5 and 0.618 level of weekly impulse and started moving upwards.
D > Price has now reached weekly supply zone and expect test of this level with 2 possible scenario. Price can drop till 0.382 Fib level after rejection or it can break the level and return to test the level as support before making a move to the upside.
As per COT GOLD has been adding Long for past 2 weeks and Short closed, increasing net positions, making Gold improve its position for the said week. Overall open positions for Gold has been reducing for past 4 weeks. Gold improved its position last week.
4H > We must observe an important point that market respects structure and 0.382 level cannot be an absolute level, price will respect a nearby structure, hence if you look in detail price has currently created support by dropping till a 4H demand zone.
What does this tells us?
Scenario 1 > We are still in bearish move where price has been making LH and LL, hence current break could just be an attempt by institutions to exit their Long positions and add more Short to their portfolio. Price can drop to test last support that it has created or can break it to test weekly demand zone.
Scenario 2 > Price can break current supply zone and return back to test it as support before continuing with its upward move.
Long Term > Due to strong inflation across all economies Gold will continue to be Bullish for Long Term.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section you can share your view and ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of GOLD - XAUUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 42 - 12 Oct
M > After reaching its all all time high and ending the said month in Doji price pulled back for correction. After massive impulse we expect price to correct at least till 0.382 FIB level on last monthly impulse. Price did make an attempt to drop till 0.382 level but could not reach it. We can expect price to drop till this level.
W > Placing FIB on last weekly impulse we can see that 0.382 and 0.618 coincide perfectly with previous (2011) high and candle open position respectively. Price dropped in between 0.5 and 0.618 level of weekly impulse and started moving upwards.
D > Price has now reached weekly supply zone and expect test of this level with 2 possible scenario. Price can drop till 0.382 Fib level after rejection or it can break the level and return to test the level as support before making a move to the upside.
As per COT GOLD has been adding Long for past 2 weeks and Short closed, increasing net positions, making Gold improve its position for the said week. Overall open positions for Gold has been reducing for past 4 weeks. Gold improved its position last week.
4H > We must observe an important point that market respects structure and 0.382 level cannot be an absolute level, price will respect a nearby structure, hence if you look in detail price has currently created support by dropping till a 4H demand zone.
What does this tells us?
Scenario 1 > We are still in bearish move where price has been making LH and LL, hence current break could just be an attempt by institutions to exit their Long positions and add more Short to their portfolio. Price can drop to test last support that it has created or can break it to test weekly demand zone.
Scenario 2 > Price can break current supply zone and return back to test it as support before continuing with its upward move.
Long Term > Due to strong inflation across all economies Gold will continue to be Bullish for Long Term.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section you can share your view and ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX