PlazoSullivanRocheCapital

1.1800 Final Destination Before Fall

Short
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Multi Timeframe Analysis

Trading philosophy: We don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do we long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the D1 master trend.

Recommendation:

In my previous analysis I expected XAUUSD to possibly fall at 17580. It didn't despite great news for the USD released end of week. This reinforces my stance that XAUUSD is being manipulated to force retail traders to go long and assume the bearish trend has ended.

It hasn't. XAUUSD faces a confluence of resistance at 1.1800 plus a massive bearish order block left by institutions. Once this level is reached and liquidity is grabbed, the pair can drop to 16800 and lower.

Consulting the Commitment of Traders reports last Tuesday, Gold maintains 189k net positions from 167k signifying continued bearish pressure

As the daily and 4H downtrend looks forthcoming, I’m looking at short opportunities- but only after price touches around the 1.1800 levels, retests and drops.

Take a Short market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.

-=ENTRY RULES=-

For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price has dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA. For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line

For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA. For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line

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