XAUUSD new double bottom and potential price movement
This is the same double bottom from yesterdays rushed idea. Thursday 10th and 11th saw a rise from 1706 to 1764. Consequently, due to strong bullish pressure i have changed the neckline from 1706 to 1800. This will be determined in the coming days, if price challenges 1800, with XAUUSD needing to fill in from fib line 0.236 to 0 (This is nearly 4500 pips which seems like a lot however over the 10th and 11th of November price increased by a similar amount). If this occurs it can be considered a good indication for lasting bullish movement to come. If the arrow does get filled in and there are other strong indicators of bullish market pressure (such as candle types or chart patterns) i would look out for support and resistance and place buy signals for a semi long D1 entry and exit.
NEWS:
Friday 11th November:
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment came out at 3:00PM in the afternoon uk time.
FROM UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
This measures the level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.
The survey is of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions.
THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE FINANCIAL CONFIDENCE IS A LEADING INDICATOR OF CONSUMER SPENDING.
CONSUMER SPENDING ACCOUNTS FOR A MAJORITY OF OVERALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.
USUALLY: The 'Actual' is greater than 'Forecast' which is good for currency
(GREATER CONSUMER SPENDING THEN FORECASTED = MORE MONEY IN CIRCULATION + HIGHER BUSINESS CONFIDENCE = STRONGER USD
HOWEVER, ON THE 11th NOVEMBER:
ACTUAL LEVEL=54.7 FORECASTED LEVEL=59.5
THIS IS BAD FOR THE USD AS IT MEANS THERES LESS CONSUMER SPENDING WHICH WOULD DECREASE FINANCIAL CONFIDENCE WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE USD AND THEREFORE HELP DRIVE UP GOLD PRICES. THIS COULD BE THE CLUE BULLS ARE LOOKING FOR TO KEEP PRICES UP.
IMPORTANT NOTE:
THE LAST TIME ACTUAL WAS LOWER THEN FORECASTED WAS SEPTEMBER 16TH AND WHEN THE NEWS CAME OUT AT 3, THE DOWNTREND STOPPED AND PRICE STARTED CONSOLIDATING BEFORE HAVING A SMALL BEARISH EPISODE AND EVENTUALLY HAVING BULLISH MOVEMENT OUT OF THE PRICE ZONE.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT ALTHOUGH THIS DATA HAS A SLIGHT EFFECT TO BOOST BEARISH PRESSURE, IT ISNT A STRONG EFFECT AND SO MAY NOT EFFECT PRICE AS MUCH.
NEWS:
Friday 11th November:
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment came out at 3:00PM in the afternoon uk time.
FROM UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
This measures the level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.
The survey is of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions.
THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE FINANCIAL CONFIDENCE IS A LEADING INDICATOR OF CONSUMER SPENDING.
CONSUMER SPENDING ACCOUNTS FOR A MAJORITY OF OVERALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.
USUALLY: The 'Actual' is greater than 'Forecast' which is good for currency
(GREATER CONSUMER SPENDING THEN FORECASTED = MORE MONEY IN CIRCULATION + HIGHER BUSINESS CONFIDENCE = STRONGER USD
HOWEVER, ON THE 11th NOVEMBER:
ACTUAL LEVEL=54.7 FORECASTED LEVEL=59.5
THIS IS BAD FOR THE USD AS IT MEANS THERES LESS CONSUMER SPENDING WHICH WOULD DECREASE FINANCIAL CONFIDENCE WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE USD AND THEREFORE HELP DRIVE UP GOLD PRICES. THIS COULD BE THE CLUE BULLS ARE LOOKING FOR TO KEEP PRICES UP.
IMPORTANT NOTE:
THE LAST TIME ACTUAL WAS LOWER THEN FORECASTED WAS SEPTEMBER 16TH AND WHEN THE NEWS CAME OUT AT 3, THE DOWNTREND STOPPED AND PRICE STARTED CONSOLIDATING BEFORE HAVING A SMALL BEARISH EPISODE AND EVENTUALLY HAVING BULLISH MOVEMENT OUT OF THE PRICE ZONE.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT ALTHOUGH THIS DATA HAS A SLIGHT EFFECT TO BOOST BEARISH PRESSURE, IT ISNT A STRONG EFFECT AND SO MAY NOT EFFECT PRICE AS MUCH.