Gold weekly/monthly update 04-08.09
Liquidity is coming back and so am I. My bias is bullish in the short term but bearish in the longer term.
The NFP was a very interesting event, but did not change the price significantly. Gold had a chance to form a bearish manipulation, but instead ended the day as a doji.
The price took the buy side liquidity and fell, but only to take the sell side. It is still in consolidation and still in the bullish channel. Gold is bullish until it breaks this channel.
In my opinion, the price will rise to form the third swing and then turn to close the monthly wick. CPI could provide the volume for this as NFP failed.
Macroeconomics
At the Jackson Hole meeting, J.P. was very hawkish about future monetary policy. Interest rates are expected to remain at this level, possibly even higher.
For now, the employment situation seems to be improving (for the FED). Unemployment is on the rise, NFP is on the decline. Tight monetary policy is working.
Inflation has come down significantly in recent months, but it is still very high. In fact, I expect it to go higher, which will give the FED reason to be even more hawkish.
Top-Down Analysis
Last month, I thought that gold would not break out of the tight consolidation and this held the price.
The monthly chart formed a weak bullish manipulation, but in my opinion the price will try to take some liquidity from the wick if the real move is bullish.
There are no signs of bears at the moment, but next week could close as a doji and give us the confirmation to sell.
I still expect gold to fall and close the imbalance, retesting the weekly double manipulation.
It seems to me to be preparing for the next bearish move. The double bottom also suggests some weakness.
Gold approached a concentrated area, but I think it will go up to reach it.
Swing projection
In recent years, September has always been a red month. I see no reason to argue with the data.
There is a pattern to the last few swings - 30 days down, 20 days up. Next week gold will reach these 20 days. At the end/middle of the week the price should turn.
Benchmark
A bit of mixed data, but for now I am more bearish.
Although gold finished the month bullish against other currencies, the metal benchmarks look bearish.
COT Reports
Professional traders seem to be bullish on gold. Lets see how next week will be.
US Yields
Yields are still very bullish.
XAUUSD vs GDX
GDX is moving exactly like gold, even more bearish.
Gold vs Silver
Gold failed to form a bearish manipulation, but silver did. This is another clue for us to sell.
The NFP was a very interesting event, but did not change the price significantly. Gold had a chance to form a bearish manipulation, but instead ended the day as a doji.
The price took the buy side liquidity and fell, but only to take the sell side. It is still in consolidation and still in the bullish channel. Gold is bullish until it breaks this channel.
In my opinion, the price will rise to form the third swing and then turn to close the monthly wick. CPI could provide the volume for this as NFP failed.
Macroeconomics
At the Jackson Hole meeting, J.P. was very hawkish about future monetary policy. Interest rates are expected to remain at this level, possibly even higher.
For now, the employment situation seems to be improving (for the FED). Unemployment is on the rise, NFP is on the decline. Tight monetary policy is working.
Inflation has come down significantly in recent months, but it is still very high. In fact, I expect it to go higher, which will give the FED reason to be even more hawkish.
Top-Down Analysis
Last month, I thought that gold would not break out of the tight consolidation and this held the price.
The monthly chart formed a weak bullish manipulation, but in my opinion the price will try to take some liquidity from the wick if the real move is bullish.
I still expect gold to fall and close the imbalance, retesting the weekly double manipulation.
Swing projection
In recent years, September has always been a red month. I see no reason to argue with the data.
There is a pattern to the last few swings - 30 days down, 20 days up. Next week gold will reach these 20 days. At the end/middle of the week the price should turn.
Benchmark
Although gold finished the month bullish against other currencies, the metal benchmarks look bearish.
COT Reports
Professional traders seem to be bullish on gold. Lets see how next week will be.
US Yields
Yields are still very bullish.
XAUUSD vs GDX
GDX is moving exactly like gold, even more bearish.
Gold vs Silver
Gold failed to form a bearish manipulation, but silver did. This is another clue for us to sell.
Strategy:
-Macroeconomics
-Market manipulation
-Liquidity calculation
-Economic and price action indicators
-MTF Pivot points
*Fundamental analysis
*Technical analys
*Quantitative analysis
Free group:
t.me/serpentforexclub
-Macroeconomics
-Market manipulation
-Liquidity calculation
-Economic and price action indicators
-MTF Pivot points
*Fundamental analysis
*Technical analys
*Quantitative analysis
Free group:
t.me/serpentforexclub