Who woulda thought there'd be a drop x) - where do we go next?
As gold bulls start out their ideas out with today, I will keep the beginning short - yada yada yada fed pumping liquidity, yada yada yada new bear markets, yada safe haven assets, yada global crisis, yada dollar going to zero.
Now that we got that out of the way, I want to talk about the medium-term game:
I think currently, the whole world economy is in a reconciliation/mourning phase. Most young people are not yet privy to what economic disaster looks like, and the old people are just wanting their free money and big lakehouse/beachhouse to retire in. No one really understand that we have been in a low-interest rate bubble for several decades, and have allowed zombie corporations to run amock with little more than a slap on the wrist for god-awful choices that would pummel them in a real free market. (look at any major car company's history and try to justify bailing them out lmfao). The coming commercial real estate bubble poppage might be enough to knock everyone into reality, but I'm not hedging my bets. Point is, there's no way anyone can justify we will see a return to normalcy this year, next year, or even 5-10 years. There's too much zombification of our economy, unmet promises for every special interest group under the sun, and countless unskilled morons who could barely flip burgers let alone work a real job.
So, with the extension of the same magic tricks central banks have been playing for over a century, there will now be a reckoning for this ponzi scheme that has been allowed to grow everso lenient so that burgermericans can buy overpriced houses that their inflation-destroying paychecks could never afford even if these houses dropped 50% in price. If you look at the chapwood index, realize how shrinkflation and stagflation has continued to ruin peoples' lives, you'll understand why gold has climbed the wall of worry recently.
See gold is nothing but a measure of inflation, and when central banks are very privy to the idea of prolonging inflation (and even promising to create an app where you can get instant welfare checks im not fucking kidding look it up), and probably moving towards negative interest rates, then the idea of gold going to unseen, ridiculous highs is not out of the box thinking. In fact, it's straight up common sense. If you understand where this debt bubble is going, then you can just make an inverse correlation between that and gold.
Now I'm not going to say everything will go to zero and commodities will rise. That's just not true. In fact, they'll all go up. The Fed, and other central banks in tandem, will work to keep velocity up and the stock market rising for as long as the bad money can continue to chase out the good. Sure, this will lead to an incredibly downgraded lifestyle (especially for Americans, cuz we make nothing and consume everyting lol), but that's just par for the course with being a slave to the precious fiat tokens.
So after the longwindedness, if I think gold is so great and explained why, well then where is the when in this scenario? I'm glad you asked! I think gold will crash out to its last real support, which is the 1700-1750 zone. That's the last time it consolidated and wouldn't drop. That's the last time we saw real fed action and when I's were dotted and T's were crossed. After it was obvious that the bubble popped and all governments were scrambling to hand out the free monies to everyone under the sun and go as hard with martial law as possible, I think the market realized the gold wasn't going anywhere but up. But, if you look, over a couple week period or so, gold skyrcoketed 250 bucks, barely hanging around 1800-1900, to fly passed 2000 and nearly break 2100 before absolutely getting owned hard by the shortsellers. Why is that? People got too excited, thought the crash was around the corner, and bought up gold when it was showing signs of life. Everyone wanted the 2000 number. it was the big psychological number to show that the goldbugs won and that they're right. But really, if you want to be long-gold, you've gotta be ready to play the /long/ /game/.
Gold will crash to its last true support, and as markets continue to sway to-and-fro, gold will try and reach back up to the 1900s, and then proceed to get pwnt x(. We will see this into the next year, right around when the commercial real estate bubble crashes, demand for most commodities weakens, people continue to be unemployed, most retail businesses are underwater or have already drowned, riots are spreading, and bagholders are left with their dick in their hand wondering "but i thought le stock bull market was forever :'(". Get ready for bumpy roads, because gold is going down, but as the world continues to try and keep pushing the covid mantra along while the real crash happens, the realization that this crash wasn't caused by a virus but decades and decades of low interest rates and unjustified military industrial complex dollar hegemony, then people will be running to their safe havens. DXY could see a rise, but don't hedge your bets x). Only the real monies will see a rise in this crisis - gold and silver.
It's a waiting game, and those too faint of heart will sell here soon and gold will see a drop, but I'd say by spring of next year, as the slow improvement continues and reality that a vaccine doesn't mean shit to a zombie world economy will ferment in the minds of the average joe. I'm holding and buying, and I see no reason to freak out over gold stagnating for a few months to a year. In the longrun, we are in a shitstorm, homelessness will grow, unemployment will grow, extremism to both sides will grow, America will experience massive civil unrest worse than the 1850s/1860s, and only le shorts will survive.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure, that just ain't so!" - Josh Billings
Now that we got that out of the way, I want to talk about the medium-term game:
I think currently, the whole world economy is in a reconciliation/mourning phase. Most young people are not yet privy to what economic disaster looks like, and the old people are just wanting their free money and big lakehouse/beachhouse to retire in. No one really understand that we have been in a low-interest rate bubble for several decades, and have allowed zombie corporations to run amock with little more than a slap on the wrist for god-awful choices that would pummel them in a real free market. (look at any major car company's history and try to justify bailing them out lmfao). The coming commercial real estate bubble poppage might be enough to knock everyone into reality, but I'm not hedging my bets. Point is, there's no way anyone can justify we will see a return to normalcy this year, next year, or even 5-10 years. There's too much zombification of our economy, unmet promises for every special interest group under the sun, and countless unskilled morons who could barely flip burgers let alone work a real job.
So, with the extension of the same magic tricks central banks have been playing for over a century, there will now be a reckoning for this ponzi scheme that has been allowed to grow everso lenient so that burgermericans can buy overpriced houses that their inflation-destroying paychecks could never afford even if these houses dropped 50% in price. If you look at the chapwood index, realize how shrinkflation and stagflation has continued to ruin peoples' lives, you'll understand why gold has climbed the wall of worry recently.
See gold is nothing but a measure of inflation, and when central banks are very privy to the idea of prolonging inflation (and even promising to create an app where you can get instant welfare checks im not fucking kidding look it up), and probably moving towards negative interest rates, then the idea of gold going to unseen, ridiculous highs is not out of the box thinking. In fact, it's straight up common sense. If you understand where this debt bubble is going, then you can just make an inverse correlation between that and gold.
Now I'm not going to say everything will go to zero and commodities will rise. That's just not true. In fact, they'll all go up. The Fed, and other central banks in tandem, will work to keep velocity up and the stock market rising for as long as the bad money can continue to chase out the good. Sure, this will lead to an incredibly downgraded lifestyle (especially for Americans, cuz we make nothing and consume everyting lol), but that's just par for the course with being a slave to the precious fiat tokens.
So after the longwindedness, if I think gold is so great and explained why, well then where is the when in this scenario? I'm glad you asked! I think gold will crash out to its last real support, which is the 1700-1750 zone. That's the last time it consolidated and wouldn't drop. That's the last time we saw real fed action and when I's were dotted and T's were crossed. After it was obvious that the bubble popped and all governments were scrambling to hand out the free monies to everyone under the sun and go as hard with martial law as possible, I think the market realized the gold wasn't going anywhere but up. But, if you look, over a couple week period or so, gold skyrcoketed 250 bucks, barely hanging around 1800-1900, to fly passed 2000 and nearly break 2100 before absolutely getting owned hard by the shortsellers. Why is that? People got too excited, thought the crash was around the corner, and bought up gold when it was showing signs of life. Everyone wanted the 2000 number. it was the big psychological number to show that the goldbugs won and that they're right. But really, if you want to be long-gold, you've gotta be ready to play the /long/ /game/.
Gold will crash to its last true support, and as markets continue to sway to-and-fro, gold will try and reach back up to the 1900s, and then proceed to get pwnt x(. We will see this into the next year, right around when the commercial real estate bubble crashes, demand for most commodities weakens, people continue to be unemployed, most retail businesses are underwater or have already drowned, riots are spreading, and bagholders are left with their dick in their hand wondering "but i thought le stock bull market was forever :'(". Get ready for bumpy roads, because gold is going down, but as the world continues to try and keep pushing the covid mantra along while the real crash happens, the realization that this crash wasn't caused by a virus but decades and decades of low interest rates and unjustified military industrial complex dollar hegemony, then people will be running to their safe havens. DXY could see a rise, but don't hedge your bets x). Only the real monies will see a rise in this crisis - gold and silver.
It's a waiting game, and those too faint of heart will sell here soon and gold will see a drop, but I'd say by spring of next year, as the slow improvement continues and reality that a vaccine doesn't mean shit to a zombie world economy will ferment in the minds of the average joe. I'm holding and buying, and I see no reason to freak out over gold stagnating for a few months to a year. In the longrun, we are in a shitstorm, homelessness will grow, unemployment will grow, extremism to both sides will grow, America will experience massive civil unrest worse than the 1850s/1860s, and only le shorts will survive.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure, that just ain't so!" - Josh Billings