XAUUSD possible path to 1300 : Gold to rise from uncertainty ?

Gold was due for a bounce per my previous analysis.
The FED rate decision started it, now Trade Wars adding.
If the Trump -vs- China rhetoric escalates, 1300 should be easy.

So we have a perfect 12345 impulse for wave possible wave (I).
ABC retrace is requisite but may be shallower than the plotted.
Key is try and catch wave (III) where most of the gains will reside.

My last plot looking for 1267-70

Previous short call

My bigger picture looking for 1370-80

Comment:

Here we are in the support zone with a wee bit of a bounce thus far

US markets are about to open, lets see if the risk-off sentiment continues....

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Comment:

Current status shows that my plot of support zone was off a bit, but we did get a bounce after piercing it as Gold often does

So looking back I see my mistake. In previous Fib of wave up, I had the 1.764 as green zone boundary, but the 1.618 is generally prefered as it did this time

Zooming into the Bounce on 3min chart

looks like we have a decent set of Ripples going, but that Band 4 (likely end of this small wave up) is right in line with previously established resistance. So am currently thinking we hit 1285 and retrace again, but hopefully will be shallow retrace to say the 2.618 at 1282-ish, then proceed to break resistance. But lets see how it goes.

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Comment:

Under the microscope (1min) there are nice confirmations of the red zone on live chart above

confirmed both boundaries.

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Comment:

Bounce looks promising

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Comment:

Still on Track. Kinda-Sorta i must admit, but just hit first anticipated resistance (zone was in light red as minor resistance)

in theory, the next leg up should be a strong move for a wave (3)

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Comment:

This wave might be about done here, just in time for NY open

Preparing for a pullback maybe...

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Comment:

Well that wave got squashed badly by the US session :( Now we are getting stuck under the previous resistance again.

But the Asia and UK sessions did put in a very nice Impulse to bring it back to that resistance. Now we just need US to break that again....

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