XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!

KOG Report:

In last weeks KOG Report we suggested caution on the markets as the structure had broken and the higher KOG targets were open. We were looking for support to hold around the 1850 and below that 1835 levels for the price to propel to the upside with our first target being 1872 and above that 1888. We gave a level of 1865-70 to look for resistance in the early part of the week which we said would represent an opportunity to short the market into the immediate support levels below. All in all the short gave traders over 300pips down and the long from support gave traders over 500pips to the upside into the KOG targets. During the course of the week, we updated traders with the weekly levels and analysis suggesting these higher levels will be achieved which they now have.

We’ve tried to keep it level to level thus far highlighting key regions to short the market and key regions to long the markets. We hope you’ve benefited from the analysis and ideas shared.

So what can we expect in the week ahead?

We’ll start by saying this is going to be a difficult week for retail traders as long as the threat of war is looming. Although technical levels are achieved its the volatility and aggressiveness of the movement that catches traders out. We can expect more of this whipsaw price action with the market reacting to news updates., so play this on the defensive for a the beginning of the week and control your lot sizes. Always have a risk strategy in place!

So we’re going to go a little further in depth today and plan for each scenario that we can see potential for.

Our plan:

Scenario 1:

Price opens with and targets the upside. We have Excalibur targets above which are sitting around the 1905 , 1912 and 1917 price regions. We will want to see how the price reacts at these levels and potentially target the short trade back down into the immediate support levels as illustrated on the chart. We feel the retracement after the movement can be a little deeper than what traders will expect so we will be looking for the 1880 level first, then 1870 and below that 1855.

Scenario 2:

The price ranges here for a day or so to bring its mean up. This scenario entails caution, as if it does this its likely we will see another push to the upside targeting the Excalibur levels and potentially beyond that into the 1920 and above that 1935-42 levels which is the top of the trend. The fractal shows that there is potential for a double top around the 1940-50 price point so lets keep this in mind while we’re trading over the next couple of weeks. If this scenario plays out we will be trading this level to level only using Excalibur targets above as our destinations.

Scenario 3:

Price opens, stays below the 1900 level, shows signs of reversal which and breaks below the 1880 level with a 4H close. This will be the first opportunity to short the market back down into immediate support regions 1870, 1865 and below that 1845. Based on these support levels holding we feel an opportunity to long the market back up to target that 1900 level and above would be reasonable.

Our personal thoughts are this move to the upside could be limited with the high being around the 1940-55 price region, if it gets there! We still have targets below which we want to see completed in the months ahead so we’re not convinced we’re going to all time highs at the moment. However, lets trade it as we see at and continue with our plans.

As we usually do we will update traders with the daily reviews and levels keeping them in the right way of the markets.

Below is the chart we've shared on a few occasions showing the targets we had open, it was also shared on the KOG report last week. You can see we have the open target above so please keep an eye on this!


Daily chart structure:


We’re sharing the daily chart which we have been using to show you the market structure. Within this chart are the daily trends, support and resistance levels as well as the key levels. We’re sharing this so traders can see the importance of charting on the higher time frames and how the levels shown can be used to gauge potential movement. Alongside this you can use the trading strategy that we have shared on TradingView and look for the breaks and closes of daily candles within the trend. Trends are powerful so always use what ever comes first, the trend line of the support and resistance level!

This chart shows there is still room to the upside, however, there is still a lot of room to the downside to create the higher low. What we’re looking for here is how the price reacts to the trend along with the resistance levels above. For those who use “W” and “M” patterns you can also see there is potentially a very large W pattern that on the break of the trend to the upside could complete at the ATH!!

Please do support this analysis with your likes and comments.

As always, trade safe.

KOG