Gold road-map to the end of Oct 2020.
I published a Gold's road-map in 25 Aug and I will keep my road-map because Gold price actions are still respecting my bullish continuation channel (Pitchfork).
Market structure:
Fundamental analysis:
1. From 16 Sept to 29 Sept will be the key in Gold: FOMC, Brexit and other major economic prospects. ( YES, I will update and modify my road-map if FOMC annoucement is not favorable fot the WHOLE markets, Indexes, Metal assets and Bitcoin)
2. US Indexes have been consolidating their retracement, a pullback and new bullish trend will happen soon from the end of Sept to at least the end of Oct.
(before 03 Nov US election.)
3. Market sentiment and liquidity are still the KEY now. Imo, they will be '' a major force'' to pull metal assets or Indexes down to a second Black swan or Legging down.
4. DXY will find its resistance around 94 and will drop in my bearish channel.
( Please note: THERE would be no BULL confirmation in DXY, if DXY can not break above 94)
5. Gold/ Silver have been showing a very good resistance/ consolidation to DXY's surge last week, that is a very impressive point to see! Decoupling the correlation would likely happen in my viewpoint.
Technical analysis:
1. No body price actions in daily candles of Gold below 1925, that is what I am still interesting in a bullish trend in Gold. ( you can count how many wicks are there?! I marked the red zone now and in June to compare as well)
2. COT report: Big Guys have closed their Shorts and added their LONG in Gold, last week from 08 Sept to 11 Sept there were a huge Open interest in Gold, but we did not see any big drop or crash in Gold? So what does it mean? What I see is that Sellers are trying to BUYING all the dips.
3. Symmetrical triangle in Gold now could be also dangerous for the downside to below 1900 or deeper to 18xx etc. However, as far as the support zone 1909 and 1925 are still there, I evaluate my bias: 20% bearish and 80% bullish continuation to ATH.
Pivotal area: 1950 to 1963 that area is now the KEY for GOLD this week in order to have a nice Bull at the end of Sept or in Oct.
Target: 1978, 1990, 2015 and even ATH again ( 2078 to 2100).
Entry:
S2: 1909 ( support extreme 0) below this one, should not LONG but rather than waiting to see Price actions, even changing the Road-map.
S1: 1925-1932
S0: 1938-1940 LONG to retest the resistance 1956 (R0), 1963-1978 (R1), 1990 (R3) and 2015 = KEY pivotal price in Gold to ATH. ( if you want to short, taking short at those resistance R0, R1, and R2)
Exit: Stop loss could vary, depending on your scalp trade or swing trade, imo I often put below my Support and avoid the Fibs level. Drawing your two or three consecutive days to avoid the Fibs level in putting your stop loss. Gold loves to hunt your stop loss exact at your Fibs levels :D.
Risk/ Reward: 1: 2 to 4 in a swing trade for Bulls, but Bears will be very profitable in scalping SHORT at those resistance, but imo bears should not hold their short due to my analysis above.
Please this analysis is just for sharing, contribution to the Trading community. It is not a financial advice or Trade signals.
Thank you very much and cheers to all Bulls and Bears :)
P/S: my own bias: Gold 2100 in Sept or just early of Oct 2020. Publication on 14 Sept 2020.
Market structure:
Fundamental analysis:
1. From 16 Sept to 29 Sept will be the key in Gold: FOMC, Brexit and other major economic prospects. ( YES, I will update and modify my road-map if FOMC annoucement is not favorable fot the WHOLE markets, Indexes, Metal assets and Bitcoin)
2. US Indexes have been consolidating their retracement, a pullback and new bullish trend will happen soon from the end of Sept to at least the end of Oct.
(before 03 Nov US election.)
3. Market sentiment and liquidity are still the KEY now. Imo, they will be '' a major force'' to pull metal assets or Indexes down to a second Black swan or Legging down.
4. DXY will find its resistance around 94 and will drop in my bearish channel.
( Please note: THERE would be no BULL confirmation in DXY, if DXY can not break above 94)
5. Gold/ Silver have been showing a very good resistance/ consolidation to DXY's surge last week, that is a very impressive point to see! Decoupling the correlation would likely happen in my viewpoint.
Technical analysis:
1. No body price actions in daily candles of Gold below 1925, that is what I am still interesting in a bullish trend in Gold. ( you can count how many wicks are there?! I marked the red zone now and in June to compare as well)
2. COT report: Big Guys have closed their Shorts and added their LONG in Gold, last week from 08 Sept to 11 Sept there were a huge Open interest in Gold, but we did not see any big drop or crash in Gold? So what does it mean? What I see is that Sellers are trying to BUYING all the dips.
3. Symmetrical triangle in Gold now could be also dangerous for the downside to below 1900 or deeper to 18xx etc. However, as far as the support zone 1909 and 1925 are still there, I evaluate my bias: 20% bearish and 80% bullish continuation to ATH.
Pivotal area: 1950 to 1963 that area is now the KEY for GOLD this week in order to have a nice Bull at the end of Sept or in Oct.
Target: 1978, 1990, 2015 and even ATH again ( 2078 to 2100).
Entry:
S2: 1909 ( support extreme 0) below this one, should not LONG but rather than waiting to see Price actions, even changing the Road-map.
S1: 1925-1932
S0: 1938-1940 LONG to retest the resistance 1956 (R0), 1963-1978 (R1), 1990 (R3) and 2015 = KEY pivotal price in Gold to ATH. ( if you want to short, taking short at those resistance R0, R1, and R2)
Exit: Stop loss could vary, depending on your scalp trade or swing trade, imo I often put below my Support and avoid the Fibs level. Drawing your two or three consecutive days to avoid the Fibs level in putting your stop loss. Gold loves to hunt your stop loss exact at your Fibs levels :D.
Risk/ Reward: 1: 2 to 4 in a swing trade for Bulls, but Bears will be very profitable in scalping SHORT at those resistance, but imo bears should not hold their short due to my analysis above.
Please this analysis is just for sharing, contribution to the Trading community. It is not a financial advice or Trade signals.
Thank you very much and cheers to all Bulls and Bears :)
P/S: my own bias: Gold 2100 in Sept or just early of Oct 2020. Publication on 14 Sept 2020.
Trade closed: target reached:
Two first long target is reached, as mentioned above for Long entries ! From 1940 to 1956 and 1963 today. My expectation is we should see a pullback to retest the support at 1940 or even 1925 before a new bullish trend.