Gold on critical crossroads / Neutral Short-term

Gold's general commentary: No big surprises so far throughout today’s session as the Price-action is pulling back on an Hourly basis having been rejected just above the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,800.80 Support / psychological barrier, as expected. As I've mentioned previously, Gold is basically Neutral on all charts within roughly #1,795.80 - #1,805.80 Rectangle and Scalpers of the Bollinger Bands are getting the most return out of this Price-action. I will continue utilizing my Medium-term Selling pattern and Trading this for as long as it lasts but keep in mind that on the Medium-term the Price-action is still Bearish within the Daily Rectangle, able to test #1,752.80 within this Trading week, if variance allows. Capital moved from Bond Yields is Buying back every dip on Gold and that sequence can turn Short-term from Bearish to Bullish and invalidate Selling patterns as it was the case lately. Still I haven’t got confirmation for Medium-term opportunity and it is still not worth entering the market without tight Risk management. My Selling bias is unchanged as I will treat Bullish spikes as an oscillation from Overbought to Neutral (Williams%), which created new space for Bearish aggressive correction. Friday’s market opening delivered strong Selling pressure on Gold but still not enough since Hourly 4 chart’s Support zone is still not compromised, and break of can aswell deny emerging Golden Cross which is decent Bullish factor. Also on the other side, Gold failed to break above the Double Top zone and was rejected (already being around # +0.36%). With Hourly 4 chart now turning Neutral, the Spot price (which is always the focus of my analysis) is close to my #1,812.80 (strong Resistance) and the Hourly 4 chart’s Support zone as mentioned on the #4 previous posts. As discussed, Gold can go both ways as I am not taking excessive risk, placing wild bets on the market. The correlation of Gold with Bond Yields is very strong (and diagonally correlated). The upside extension remains #1,812.80, so if the Support breaks, Gold could slide downwards, if the case is opposite, #1,827.80 should be next. I am not expecting much from today’s session, as it most likely points to an corrective movements and #6 - #8 point consolidation.


Technical analysis: Gold has hit (even marginally crossed) the #1,800.80 Support on the Hourly 4 chart and in my opinion, Bullish consolidation should be over (or at least near exhaustion). Even though the Weekly chart’s Support is untouched, currently #1,798.80 represents the new Support and is close to the ultimate Bottom holding on #17 session horizon. Bond Yields are still on Bearish gradient overall and the DX is still on majority charts pressing the Resistances, I see no reason for Gold to move Higher than today’s session (or more than #1,812.80), unless those cross instruments start moving to favorable directions for Gold's uptrend. I see current dip on Gold mostly as filling the Gap and in my opinion, #1,778.80 should be next if #1,798.80 gets invalidated. See also an interesting fractal, which resembles a lot the current price action: November #2019 and the bounce from the #1,445.80 bottom, cross of Hourly 4 #MA50, failure to break #MA200 and then back down to #1,450.80. There is also possible Double Top rejection (Hourly 4 chart September #20 - #21, and October #1 - #2), and Hourly 4 chart still on a solid Channel Down. All in all, this is a “no call” for me as current market sentiment offers me no clear pattern to Trade by.


My position: As I am not interested in Buying Gold on both Short and Medium-term, I will Sell only if #1,800.80 - #1,798.80 breaks, calling for #1,778.80. On the other hand, if #1,812.80 breaks and adds Buying pressure towards #1,824.80, I will utilize Selling within #1,815.80 -#1,820.80 ultimate Top zone, calling for the #1,798.80 extension.