Gold's general commentary: As expected Gold found Support again on the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,792.80 - #1,794.80 zone and rebounded back near the #1,808.80 semi-Resistance throughout yesterday's session. This will be the #5th test of that Resistance level since July #19 and it is no surprise that Price-action reached ahead of FOMC minutes session. Even though Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are historically one of the most important readings (having direct impact on Gold), I may see movement below #1,796.80 after today’s U.S. session as the Daily chart’s RSI is relatively High. The consolidation within roughly the #1,795.80 - #1,815.80 zone is one of the tightest and strongest in recent Month (the Daily chart Volatility is very High fuelled by a Buying pressure (Gold as a safe-haven) and Selling pressure equally (Technically Gold is strongly Overbought). This is of course the outcome of the Delta virus outbreak/uncertainty and sharp Sell-off on the Bond Yields (due to the virus pessimistic outlook on the quickness of the recovery), as Investors are caught in the middle of Buying because of Gold's safe-haven status when riskier assets decline and due to yesterday's strong rise on DX currently on #6-session Resistance. I have mentioned my case on the DX, that normally it prevails as the main safe-haven (as it happened in late March #2020) in times of Stock markets crashes - which engages correction with Gold that both assets (Yields and DX) rises and Stock markets decline. This puts significant Buying pressure on Gold. For current session, best to do is stay on the safer side (without an order) and wait for Support break. Personally, Gold is near the Top and I should see #1,800.80 break, but is so far holding and is the level I am focusing at. The Fundamental side down-played the quick fair Technical value Price-action hopes which the Investors had, especially since May, and the sharp Yields Sell-off benefited Gold, and Buying pressure Traders see is the outcome of Yields trending downwards and DX rejection on #6-session Resistance.
Technical analysis: Tight balance for Gold as despite the pullback, which is a direct consequence of the DX decline (Intra-day), the Price-action is being well Supported due to the current strong red Daily chart candle on Bond Yields. The Selling trend on the Bond Yields is getting more and more favorable to Gold, Buying every dip from July #6. Hourly 4 chart remains an Sell marginally and as long as the Hourly 4 chart’s Support zone holds (#1,796.80 - #1,800.80 on Spot prices), I expect Gold to recover #1,805.80 - #1,812.80 again, which is the case at the moment. If the Daily chart’s #MA50 breaks though (#1,833.80), the Medium-term trend turns Bullish again towards #1,845.80 - #1,857.80 (less likely, small chances for mentioned variance).
Fundamental analysis: The #1,812.80 continues to offer stiff Resistance (as it can represent session High) and in the meantime, Price-action made a Higher Low zone with the #1,808.80 - #1,812.80 containing the uptrend. The Lower Low Upper zone is at #1,789.80 - #1,782.90 (Spot prices) and as long as it Supports, the Price-action will be Neutral/Bullish (Short-term) above the Higher Low trendline of the Hourly 4 chart's Channel. There is strong #1,778.80 test probability throughout today’s session if market closes below #1,800.80 psychological barrier again, while DX broken the Support zone, generally the Daily chart timeframe is pointing on a steady slide. I am still expecting #1,778.80, probably through after tomorrow’s session or when the markets resumes on the FOMC aftermath. Hourly 1 chart constitutes Selling continuation aswell, as Investors are cautious, speculating how market will digest FOMC speech (catalyst of the week), and what kind of impact it will have on Gold. Base case scenario and market configuration are pointing that Price-action will continue to Trade below Lower Low Upper zone. Bond Yields on main stage, along with DX to a lesser extent.
My position: As I couldn't afford to be without a position in case of aggressive Support break, I engaged my Selling order on #1,800.80 psychological barrier break, Targeting #1,775.80. Since Bond Yields are, yet again Trading on losses, I would't be surprised to see Bullish spike Intra-day, but within my model. I will keep applying strict Risk management until market regains normal conditions.
Technical analysis: Tight balance for Gold as despite the pullback, which is a direct consequence of the DX decline (Intra-day), the Price-action is being well Supported due to the current strong red Daily chart candle on Bond Yields. The Selling trend on the Bond Yields is getting more and more favorable to Gold, Buying every dip from July #6. Hourly 4 chart remains an Sell marginally and as long as the Hourly 4 chart’s Support zone holds (#1,796.80 - #1,800.80 on Spot prices), I expect Gold to recover #1,805.80 - #1,812.80 again, which is the case at the moment. If the Daily chart’s #MA50 breaks though (#1,833.80), the Medium-term trend turns Bullish again towards #1,845.80 - #1,857.80 (less likely, small chances for mentioned variance).
Fundamental analysis: The #1,812.80 continues to offer stiff Resistance (as it can represent session High) and in the meantime, Price-action made a Higher Low zone with the #1,808.80 - #1,812.80 containing the uptrend. The Lower Low Upper zone is at #1,789.80 - #1,782.90 (Spot prices) and as long as it Supports, the Price-action will be Neutral/Bullish (Short-term) above the Higher Low trendline of the Hourly 4 chart's Channel. There is strong #1,778.80 test probability throughout today’s session if market closes below #1,800.80 psychological barrier again, while DX broken the Support zone, generally the Daily chart timeframe is pointing on a steady slide. I am still expecting #1,778.80, probably through after tomorrow’s session or when the markets resumes on the FOMC aftermath. Hourly 1 chart constitutes Selling continuation aswell, as Investors are cautious, speculating how market will digest FOMC speech (catalyst of the week), and what kind of impact it will have on Gold. Base case scenario and market configuration are pointing that Price-action will continue to Trade below Lower Low Upper zone. Bond Yields on main stage, along with DX to a lesser extent.
My position: As I couldn't afford to be without a position in case of aggressive Support break, I engaged my Selling order on #1,800.80 psychological barrier break, Targeting #1,775.80. Since Bond Yields are, yet again Trading on losses, I would't be surprised to see Bullish spike Intra-day, but within my model. I will keep applying strict Risk management until market regains normal conditions.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
