goldenBear88

Keeping my Selling order ahead of FOMC minutes

Short
FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Gold's general commentary: The Hourly 1 chart Channel Down (that started on July #20) remains the pattern to focus on and a closing below #1,800.80 psychological barrier (possible messenger of Selling continuation) will also be the first time to completely confirm a major move (along with #1,796.80 break) in #17 sessions, which can devalue Gold towards #1,753.80. That would restore the Medium-term Bearish sentiment. The Lower Low Target extension on the Channel Down remains #1,778.80 - #1,772.80, the Buying zone remains the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,808.80 - #1,812.80. Gold continues to Trade on losses regarding the Hourly 4 chart as the #1,792.80 - #1,796.80 Support zone still holds. The Bearish U.S. data were unable to stop the DX from making another parabolic rise as it continues to monopolize the safe-haven status. But on the bright-side Gold is holding and isn't rising more. As I have been mentioning, this only shows the underlying strength and how Long-term Investors defend the current level. My perspective is unchanged and all my previous models remain valid. If the Support zone breaks, then by market closing it is possible to see an aggressive Hourly 4 Selling continuation towards #1,778.80. As long as DX is Trading on High’s and above the Resistance, Gold will be without a recovery, but on the contrary, Bond Yield’s constant Resistance rejection and Bearish Gap fill are adding enormous Buying pressure on Gold and preventing full scale Bearish rebound.


Technical analysis: As end of the yesterday's session approached, Gold seemingly printed (#2nd in a row) Bullish Hourly 4 candle (# +0.14% on Neutral MACD gradient). On a side-note, this marks the biggest Hourly 1 chart #3 - #4 candle Bullish cohesion since July #19. The Weekly candle closes on a near # +0.97% but the Monthly is still on an encouraging # +0.36%. I don’t need to consult the charts more than once to understand that current fractal (Daily chart’s Neutral consolidation Rectangle) will allow a symmetrical #1,778.80 extension (the Monthly MA period) by end of the Trading week if today’s U.S. session opening don’t disappoint. This is of course very speculative even from a Technical standpoint as I will be reviewing my configuration session-by-session and Hour-by-Hour, but I cannot deny that Gold is on Neutral/Bearish Short-term momentum (my estimations shows even #1,753.80). However it is important to consider that Buying near Monthly rejection points is Technically not advised, especially when Bollinger bands/Williams# on both Weekly and Monthly chart’s on a clear Overbought condition and clear possible Ultimate Top rejection on Weekly chart. This suggests than only if July #23 Low symmetrical to #1,792.80 - #1,796.80 is crossed, I can spot with certainty that Selling opportunity is worth taking. As I mentioned and Technically on the Medium-term, Buying is not favored unless #1,812.80 - #1,818.80 benchmarks break. Strong DX will add Selling pressure on Gold as I maintain my #1,775.80 Target.


My position:
I am currently holding my #1,775.80 Target Sell (engaged on #1,800.80 barrier break), and most likely I will keep it throughout FOMC minutes, as the Rate will most likely remain unchanged.

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