The last powerful upward trend in gold , which started in late 2016, led to an increase in the asset prices from 1100 up to 1360 and even slightly higher. Accordingly, if we take it as the basis of the analysis and construct the Fibonacci correction lines, we can see that the current prices correspond to the corrective moment of 0.382 with a possible test of 0.50.
Yes, the current technical picture is entirely on the side of sellers, but so far it is more like a reaction of prices on the market sentiment. It is the mood, not the basic background.
Recall gold is the main safe-haven asset in financial markets. It is used primarily when there are problems on the horizon of financial markets or the world economy.
And now there is a lot of such problems. Starting from the US trade wars, threatening the entire world economy, ending with a mild panic in the financial markets of emerging countries, which may well turn into a full panic.
The sharp decline in the US stock market and the stock markets of the developing countries, the same sharp increase in the Fear Index (the VIX index, which grew by 50% over the last month) is just a small fraction of the signals predicting a possible panic in the financial markets.
And against the background of all this, gold is falling. We consider this situation abnormal, and the only way to eliminate this anomaly is seen in the growth of gold prices. This is the main motivation for our recommendation to "buy" gold .
The plan is designed to be "under water" for a while, because we go against the local trend and this must be borne in mind, that is, the inertial moment may well suffice to descend to the bottom of 1200.
So, the first purchases can be started already from the current prices, the next call is about 1240 and, finally, the final one at the bottom of 1200. With the goals at least around 1290. If the fundamental background will be favorable (the panic wave will gain momentum), then the take-profits can easily be transferred up to 1350.