Gold opens higher, does not chase the rise, is still expected to

Yuliya10 Updated   
FXOPEN:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar

The crisis situation in the Middle East attracted global attention over the weekend. Although it seems to be in danger, it is actually on the verge of danger. All parties are working hard to turn the crisis around, and the impact on the market seems limited.

After Iran launched a large-scale attack, it quickly announced the end of the operation, and Israel subsequently issued a tough verbal response. The market then looked forward to how the "Eagle" would express its stance. The result was no support for Israel's counterattack and market jitters were eased.

The golden weekly line records a positive column with a long upper shadow line, which is a "shooting star". This is a common top signal. At present, the price remains above the moving average of each cycle, and the cycle indicators continue to maintain an upward trend. , initially deviated from the development of the K line. From a weekly perspective alone, gold still has demand and room to fall.

On the daily line, a negative column with a long upper shadow was recorded last Friday. The physical part broke through the support of the five-day moving average. Prices ended lower. All cycle indicators maintain an upward trend, but the momentum has slowed down. The red energy column of short-term indicators shrinks. Once a dead cross is formed and trading volume increases, the trend will continue to fall in the short term.

The higher open this morning was a result of the geopolitical situation over the weekend. Be sure to pay attention to the subsequent evolution of the situation at the beginning of the week, because it will have a greater impact on the market than technical guidance.

We now give our expectations mainly based on technical adjustments. As of this morning, the price of gold hit a maximum of $2,372 and a minimum of $2,346, an increase of about $26, which was in response to and digestion of the weekend's geopolitical events.

I continue to retain the expectation given at the weekend that there is limited room for gold to rise again in the short term, and I do not rule out the possibility of continued downward adjustment.

Major resistance at the day’s top is seen at $2,372 (this morning’s high), with further extension resistance near $2,380. Short-term bottom support is seen at $2,346 (this morning’s low). Further support lies at $2,333, below which the support will be extended. Support is located in the $2320-2318 area.

The current expected upper and lower space is a bit wide, because the volatility has intensified recently due to various factors, so the expected space has also widened accordingly. However, I want to be clear today that we will not be increasing our purchases in the short term. Trading remains high as we expect the phased adjustment to not be fully over yet.

Special reminder: The above are all expectations if the geopolitical crisis does not break out or worsen. If emergencies occur again and trigger the precious metals market, we will make timely adjustments and follow up.

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