Two Near-Term Possibilities: Eyes on Geopoliticals
Next week we will have to closely monitor updated information on the trade front, Brexit and the ECB and whether they ease or not.
The blue line represents my bullish scenario where there is no positive news next week regarding Brexit and USA/China Trade. Further, in this scenario it is assuming an ECB cut.
The yellow represents my bearish scenario. For the first time during this run I am proposing a potential bearish scenario as I said if we fell below 1520 (which we clearly have) there would be a near-term bearish possibility. This does not change my long-term extreme bullishness on Gold (and Silver), but rather, a simple correction which was possible from the mid 1550s anyways. Keep in mind though, once we eventually breach 1600, the moves will be exponentially positive. The 1600 mark will be the pivot point from meandering and corrections to parabolic moves to 1800-1900.
Moreover, in this yellow scenario it is based on positive news from trade and/or positive news from Brexit and no ECB easing.
I am slightly leaning to my bullish scenario as a result of Gold holding 1505 very comfortably and not slipping below 1500 today (finishing over 1507). Further, I believe ECB will likely ease this week which may rollover and increase the chance of a FOMO cut despite a hawkish talk today. Overall, I believe the markets are overly optimistic for the USA/China trade talks and the higher the general market goes, the increased likelihood of a no trade deal and some sort of Trump escalation to increase rate cut chances. Additionally, I saw today as an excellent position to re-enter longs for Gold/Silver as the potential we bounce next week. Should we fall further by ~15.00, that gives an even more excellent entry for longs. I do not see Gold falling below 1484 even in my most bearish predictions.
Monitor the geopoliticals carefully. I suspect those who are short will always be shorting and those who are long will likely be long almost indefinitely. Stay patient and stay true to your philosophy.
- zSplit
The blue line represents my bullish scenario where there is no positive news next week regarding Brexit and USA/China Trade. Further, in this scenario it is assuming an ECB cut.
The yellow represents my bearish scenario. For the first time during this run I am proposing a potential bearish scenario as I said if we fell below 1520 (which we clearly have) there would be a near-term bearish possibility. This does not change my long-term extreme bullishness on Gold (and Silver), but rather, a simple correction which was possible from the mid 1550s anyways. Keep in mind though, once we eventually breach 1600, the moves will be exponentially positive. The 1600 mark will be the pivot point from meandering and corrections to parabolic moves to 1800-1900.
Moreover, in this yellow scenario it is based on positive news from trade and/or positive news from Brexit and no ECB easing.
I am slightly leaning to my bullish scenario as a result of Gold holding 1505 very comfortably and not slipping below 1500 today (finishing over 1507). Further, I believe ECB will likely ease this week which may rollover and increase the chance of a FOMO cut despite a hawkish talk today. Overall, I believe the markets are overly optimistic for the USA/China trade talks and the higher the general market goes, the increased likelihood of a no trade deal and some sort of Trump escalation to increase rate cut chances. Additionally, I saw today as an excellent position to re-enter longs for Gold/Silver as the potential we bounce next week. Should we fall further by ~15.00, that gives an even more excellent entry for longs. I do not see Gold falling below 1484 even in my most bearish predictions.
Monitor the geopoliticals carefully. I suspect those who are short will always be shorting and those who are long will likely be long almost indefinitely. Stay patient and stay true to your philosophy.
- zSplit
