I managed to carry out a deeply laid plan since 2018, although it could easily have been refuted since sellers have been handicapped in a well known risk-off environment. Moreover, I understand no macro swing ending is exactly ideal but rather one that is more clearly illustrated with time.
Things developed with the highlights as follows:
(1): The Ladder is empty
Buyers were threatening control since $1,200. The key takeaway from this is to understand that sharp speculators have been riding this for some time. The simple and clear flow has been higher. Here buyers took charge and began the march towards sellers outpost at $1,970.
Note that instead of playing for intraday moves and banking pips, the correct approach was to swing the bat for a Long-term fundamental trade and continue loading the moment it started working. Pips are for pipsqueaks!
(2): Large Triangle Forming
In the flows, there followed after a few handles higher very little resistance from sellers who could not be liberated at the time. An interesting notion as to how keen sharp hands were to trade the moves higher in Gold and how much of a leading indicator it has been for the entire Covid flows.
(3): Delights and Torments/b]
The examples continue to show a simple case of flanking and riding the pig until the trend exhausts itself. Until now, sellers have not posted a credible threat. The macro swing worked perfectly in spite of allowing some minor overshoots at $1,970.
Play went on... Buyers begin to take profit and sellers attempt their first credible advance since Covid chapter I as Fed have implemented AIT as a somewhat backward solution to an inevitable problem. The technical pullback sellers wish to create opens up $1,750 and $1,550 as main targets before anything else can be opened. I think this pragmatic correction is a demonstration of when the boat becomes too crowded on one side. Positioning dominates play as takes the backseat for now, the struggle to hold $1,925 will imply the highs are here for the year because of the $1,970 blockade.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
In my humble opinion, a gold investor should not flinch.
Because the very long-term things are working to his advantage and to me it looks like it will stay that way for a while.
See S&P500/Gold ratio chart below.
The red dotted almost horizontal line is the very long-term resistance and the price has dipped below it since October 2018.
Sure there will be short week/month fluctuations along the way but it won't probably be until 2025 before the new low is reached and a long-term move back from Gold to S&P 500 is reasonable.
In any case, IMHO, nothing should be done until at least the first red moving average line has been crossed from bottom to top, and that is not what it looks like at the moment.
If you want to sleep well, just sit on your hands, that is the hardest thing for most people in investment. ;-)