I remain on gold medium and long term (as I have been all year) with a year-end price target of $1400-1425 following a correction. In the short term over the coming quarter I would not be surprised to see gold contained within a 100 point range of $1300-1400, presenting an attractive risk/reward skew for longs.
What is most interesting is that the 1327 retracement level appears to be acting as support for gold having successfully tested (and held) during Asian trading.
A new intraday high above 1337 would set a higher-high (hourly) with a higher-low (hourly) established overnight around the 1327 area of interest, suggesting that the longer-term (daily) correctional move from the 23rd June low to 6th July high is complete, heralding new highs and run at $1400
Notably, gold failed to see 1337 intraday and as such has not established a higher-high on an intraday basis (negative bias remains). Therefore, 1327 should remain an area of attraction heading into the start of trading next week, with a decisive move in either direction away from this level signalling either a continued correction towards 1297 on the downside, or a run up towards the June 6th high at 1375.
A stronger dollar and resurgent US yields seen today suggest that the probabilities are tilted in the favour of a deeper correction.
To be reassessed Monday. Flat, still buyer at 1297 if seen.
The market appears to be viewing the incident as a contained situation and safe haven assets are offered.
1347.05 provides the upside pivot for bulls this week, otherwise expect price to re-test 1327 with the odds slightly in favour of a deeper correction towards the 62% retracement level at 1297 (where my technical bias will confirm my fundamental view and favour buying).