Macroeconomic Outlook
Unfortunately, the market is not going well. The high course of global inflation threatens the economies. Rising interest rates cause liquidity and recession risk.
Inflation seems to be permanent for a long time. Even if central banks increase interest rates, they may need to continue with high interest rate policies for a long time to bring inflation down. I don't think the economies and sectors are that durable.
The hard sales we see in the markets do not seem like a price correction. I think we are entering a long-term bear market. Unfortunately, this may take 2-3 years. It seems difficult to expect a new peak during this time.
If we look at the bottom of this situation; FED's sharp increase in interest rates caused sharp increases in the dollar. DXY is at the peak of the last 10 years.
People are starting to wait in cash because interest rates are rising and things are not going well in the market.
Technical analysis
Weekly:We have seen very hard sales in gold this week. Increasing candle volumes in weekly candles may mean hardening of sales. If we number the decline starting from 2070 as 5 waves. If we examine these waves according to the elliot wave theorem, the 5th wave should end at the level of 1700 dollars.
Unfortunately, the market is not going well. The high course of global inflation threatens the economies. Rising interest rates cause liquidity and recession risk.
Inflation seems to be permanent for a long time. Even if central banks increase interest rates, they may need to continue with high interest rate policies for a long time to bring inflation down. I don't think the economies and sectors are that durable.
The hard sales we see in the markets do not seem like a price correction. I think we are entering a long-term bear market. Unfortunately, this may take 2-3 years. It seems difficult to expect a new peak during this time.
If we look at the bottom of this situation; FED's sharp increase in interest rates caused sharp increases in the dollar. DXY is at the peak of the last 10 years.
People are starting to wait in cash because interest rates are rising and things are not going well in the market.
Technical analysis
Weekly:We have seen very hard sales in gold this week. Increasing candle volumes in weekly candles may mean hardening of sales. If we number the decline starting from 2070 as 5 waves. If we examine these waves according to the elliot wave theorem, the 5th wave should end at the level of 1700 dollars.