Engaged my Selling order near #1,900.80 psychological barrier

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Gold's general commentary prior to last #2 last sessions: As expected Gold reached and broken in the same manner the #1,900.80 Daily chart’s psychological barrier and in the same tIme / Resistance (former Ascending Triangle ) as the emerging Hourly 4 chart Channel Up kept consolidating until major move is revealed (range #1,892.80 - #1,917.70). In my opinion, Gold should be timed for an downswing / correction as I cannot expect cooling down the Overbought levels with DX struggling to make Bullish comeback and Bond Yields on parabolic downtrend (on a small Hourly 1 chart recovery). Seems like the Fed is keeping Bond Yields on Yearly Low’s to encourage Investors to have more trust in equities. Technically, the Channel Up has an upside Higher High limit within #1,917.80 extension before it makes a new High and confirm that Buying is in continuation. If however #1,892.80 breaks first, I expect an aggressive take down to the #1,871.80. The Daily chart’s Support rests near this configuration and is where the Daily chart should Resist once again the Medium-term Bearish trend within the new Bear Cycle. Note that Wednesday’s session pull back on DX assisted Gold's Price-action and prevented further collapse, but on early Wall Street opening Bell it appeared to be reversing. As discussed, I believe the market will present the dominant move after today’s U.S. opening and with the DX (main correlation I have at the moment along with Bond Yields), Gold is still Neutral and ready to confirm the Short-term shift to Bearish .

Fundamental analysis:
Evident sideways Price-action extension on the Hourly 4 chart as the consolidation patterns providing the safest framework for dip Buying strategy. As Gold was critically Overbought, it was totally Natural to expect Sellers to arise and extend the Hourly 4 chart correction towards my Support and below #1,900.80 psychological barrier. The Hourly 4 Resistance has been rejected twice already which gives an updated Targets with a potential extension towards #1,927.80 if #1,917.80 breaks. Only if #1,917.80 breaks, I will contemplate Buying the market as at the moment / Hourly 1 configuration points that it Buying is strongly limited. I don't expect today’s session reports to be relevant, as I await #1,850.70 Selling extension (Selling on every High) once Bond Yields engage more serious recovery. Gold broke the #1,905.80 Hourly 1 chart Support with ease, which has now turned into a Short-term Resistance as the first test on the previous Hourly 4 candle was unsuccessful. The next barrier on my focus is the #1,892.80 level, which I expect to break with relative ease as the DX (# +0.46) just formed the very Bullish formation and if broken, next stop should be #1,871.80 configuration, and break of should eye #1,840.80 (February #10 variance). As a result I believe the current level of #1,900.80 is a solid new Sell order opportunity, as everything depends on today’s session market closing. If my pattern is postponed and Gold breaks the #1,892.80 Support then Buy back the decline, I then have to wait for potential contact with the #1,871.80 Support, to Sell again on Medium-term.

Technical analysis: Gold has finally entered the #1,900.80 - #1,910.80 Zone which has seasonally been the strongest Selling accumulation point since September #2020. Daily chart is Naturally stabilized as I shift my focus on Weekly and Monthly chart, both of which are calling for a long term Bearish reversal. The Fed loan rate climate is the main driver behind this aggressive rise and should be Sold immediately when #1,871.80 Main Support gets invalidated (thus Bond Yields engage the Weekly chart (#1W) full scale reversal, which can be identified as an trend switch on Gold ). There is always an outside factor that drives the Price-action to the Resistance seasonally (reversal on Yields and DX ) but all are Sold there. It is possible to have a #10 session period Trading within #1,920.80 - #1,880.80 before the Price-action breaks downwards though based on the #2020 / #2021 cycle. If Gold does not recover the #1,917.80 Higher High Resistance and restores Bullish Short-term trend within #2 sessions, I can Sell with certainty on Medium-term. New Bearish outlook on Gold will come as no Technical surprise since other assets should Trade favorably for Gold’s decline. Keep in mind that my approach is swing Trading (Long-term positions) within quarterly cycles and my goal is identifying the correct trend for a longer period of time, even if it lags to a small extent.

My position: I engaged my Selling order on #1,900.80 break, calling for #1,871.80 extension. I will move my Stop-loss every #3 points as weekend break is near as I don't want to remain with a position over the weekend and endanger my #6 Profits row and #1 Stop-loss hit.
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Professional market analyst and Financial consultant with over #8 Years experience. I specialize Gold market using specific proven mathematical models. I provide market insights and Professional guidance.


Your idea is great
+1 Reply
goldenBear88 myounuskhan492
@myounuskhan492, Many thanks for your input!
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+1 Reply
goldenBear88 ebrahimkhalil
@ebrahimkhalil, Thank you, much appreciated!
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+1 Reply
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+1 Reply
goldenBear88 MarketLord
@MarketLord, Pleasure to read such words!
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+1 Reply
goldenBear88 BadihNaamani
@BadihNaamani, Well noted, thank you!