🔥 XAUUSD - The effect of WAR on the GOLD (READ THE CAPTION)

By re-examining gold in the 12-hour time frame, we can see that the price on Friday was accompanied by heavy buying pressure with the announcement of Israel's ground attack on Gaza (Hamas) and considering that gold is a popular and low-risk asset in war conditions. It is considered to have created this amount of demand in the price! The important thing that happened on Friday was that the price attacked the top of the POC Line without any specific reaction to it and closed above this important level ! This important level was $1925 when we saw that the price broke this resistance with great strength and moved towards higher targets, But the important point is that according to my personal strategy, this flow can be given high credibility if the price can be stabilized in at least 1 to a maximum of 3 candles, which means that if the price moves below $1925 again in these 3 days and closes, probably we'll see the drop to $1885 as the first downward target! Pay attention that the most important condition for changing the Bearish to Bullish trend is to stabilize above $1925 and break the price of $1955, in which case we can expect the price to grow even up to $1976 and $2020 ! So this week is very important for gold and we have to monitor the behavior of the price! With the growth that the price had on Friday from 1868$ to 1932$, a large liquidity void has been created, and the probability that this FVG will be filled soon is high! All this will depend on the trading process on Monday and Tuesday! The important supply zone in front of the price is from $1929 to $1954 and we have to see if the price will be rejected from this zone or not, and to fill this gap we must see the consolidation of the price below $1925! I hope this comprehensive analysis will be useful for you!

Best Regards , Arman Shaban

Trade active

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Market Opened , Gold is Falling , Lowest Price so far is $1921.5 , +100 Pips in less than 15 minutes ! Cheers

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Now the price fell to 1919$ and trading below the important resistance range which was 1925$ ans 1933$ ! We have to see if the price can consolidate below this zone or What ! please wait for the next update before the NY session !

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$1908 Reached so far ✅ , It’s Falllllllllinnnng , +240 Pips ✅

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Considering that gold is supported at $1909, the price will probably grow to $1920 as the first target! If the support of $1909 will be broken , the price will drop to $1890! Consider this analysis!

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Important Update : With the support and stabilization of the price above $1909, if the price hits the first target, i.e. $1920, and we do not see a specific rejection from the price, we will probably see the price increase to $1932 again!

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As you can see, gold managed to hit the $1920 target by maintaining the $1909 support and is currently trading in the $1925 range, we may see the price reach the $1931 to $1933 target !

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As you can see, in the 12-hour time frame, after the fall from $1932 to $1908, gold faced renewed demand and was able to grow from the support range of $1909 to $1927 to this moment, However, the first scenario is that the price will grow again to the range of $1931 to $1933 and in case of a strong rejection, it will be accompanied by correction and fall again, the important condition for the fall to $1885 is to break and consolidation of the price below $1908! Otherwise, we should consider the second scenario, in which the price stabilizes above the range of $1907 to $1909, and with the growth of the price and the breaking of the resistance of $1933, we can see the growth of the price to higher targets, The bullish targets of the second scenario will be $1954, $1987, and $2020, respectively!

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As you can see, the price went exactly according to the first scenario and by reaching $1931, it was accompanied by a strong rejection to this level and has been able to correct by more than 110 pips to the $1920 range ! The efficiency of this analysis up to this moment : +110 pips ✅

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New Update : By re-examining gold, we can see that the price again faced demand pressure with the announcement of the attack on the Gaza hospital and the intensification of the war, and this caused the price to grow up to $1950! If this flow continues, we will probably see the price rise to higher levels such as $1954, $1988 and $2020 as the next targets!

Best Regards , Arman Shaban

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Hey guys ! Ready for the new Update of GOLD ?

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NEW Forecast of GOLD : By examining gold, we can see that yesterday the price managed to grow to the level of $1962 and after that it was accompanied by correction, but finally it was able to close at the price of $1947.8! Today's price is again trying to hit new highs , but the most important condition for this is to break and stabilize above $1962, because the entire range from $1947 to $1962 is a new supply zone ! The previous analysis is still valid! Based on the previous TA , the next possible targets will be $1962, $1988, and $2020, respectively!

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GOLD hit the target of $1962 and is now trading in the range of $1985! I hope you have used the most of it!

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By examining gold in the 12-hour time frame, we see that the price was corrected after reaching 1997.5 and finally managed to fall to $1964! Now the price has reacted positively to this range and we have to see if it can start its next move to hit the target of $2000 and $2020 by stabilizing the price above the support of $1963 or not!

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As you can see, considering that the price lost the important support of 1963$, it was able to correct up to 1953$, and the possibility that the price can fall to the range of 1907$ to 1933$ has greatly increased! So, the important price resistance is the psychological level of $1999 and $2000, and until these two resistances are not broken, we cannot expect more price growth!

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New and Important Update of GOLD :

First lets have an Fundamental Analysis on tommorow's important news , which is Advanced GDP ! Advance GDP or Advance Gross Domestic Product is an economic indicator that shows how much an economy has grown in a period of time. It is calculated based on preliminary and incomplete data and may change in the future. This indicator is important for policymakers, investors and analysts because it shows how much economic activity is in a country.

Tomorrow , the Advance GDP rate for the US will be announced for the third quarter of 2023. The previous rate for the second quarter was 2.1 percent and the forecast for the third quarter is 4.5 percent. This forecast shows that the US economy is improving and recovering from the negative impacts of the trade war with China and the coronavirus outbreak. Some of the positive factors for the US GDP growth are :

- Increase in consumer spending , which is the largest component of GDP and shows that people are buying more.
- Increase in business fixed investment , which shows that companies are investing more in equipment, buildings and inventory.
- Decrease in exports and imports , which shows that domestic demand is higher than foreign demand and improves the trade balance.

After the announcement of the Advance GDP rate for the US, the forex market will be strongly affected. If the Actual Advance GDP rate is higher than the forecast, the US dollar will maintain its strength and rise against other currencies. If the Actual Advance GDP rate is lower than the forecast, the US dollar will show its weakness and fall against other currencies. Of course, other factors such as FOMC, NFP, CPI and so on also affect the behavior of the US dollar Index.

Our forecast for the Advance GDP rate for the US for the third quarter is 4.3 percent. This forecast is slightly lower than the official forecast because I think that the negative effects of the trade war and the coronavirus are not completely gone and may affect some sectors of the US economy. If Our forecast is correct, the US dollar may show some weakness and fall against other currencies. (DYOR) Now, if the dollar index falls, we will probably see the relative growth of gold !
I hope Our analysis is useful for you.

Best Regards , Arman Shaban

Comment:

As you can see, the price managed to grow up to the price of $1993 and faced selling pressure from the same area. As I had specified in the analysis of the 15-minute time frame, The range of $1993 was introduced as a zone for SELL, and by reaching this Zone , the price was corrected by 180 pips to $1975 ! Still, this area has stopped the price from falling further and we have to see if this support will remain or not! If this support is maintained, the price can grow up to levels above $2000, otherwise we will first see a range and then fall to $1930!