XAU/USD breaks long-term channel up
Morning outlook - XAU/USD breaks long-term channel up
Even though information released about the US Core Retail Sales appeared to be worse than analysts expected, the pair did not manage to stay in a long term-ascending channel. It seems that the breakout was triggered by a combined pressure from the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
It should be noted that such outcome was in line with a daily chart, which suggested that the rate was going to continue to plunge at least until the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96.
Accordingly, today the pair is likely to continue to move to the bottom, trying to reach the updated weekly S1 at 1,310.77. A recovery of the yellow metal is not expected to follow, as the northern side is reliably secured not only by the above 55- and 100-hour SMAs, but also by the updated weekly PP at 1,325.63 as well as the upper boundary of a new junior channel down.
Even though information released about the US Core Retail Sales appeared to be worse than analysts expected, the pair did not manage to stay in a long term-ascending channel. It seems that the breakout was triggered by a combined pressure from the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
It should be noted that such outcome was in line with a daily chart, which suggested that the rate was going to continue to plunge at least until the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96.
Accordingly, today the pair is likely to continue to move to the bottom, trying to reach the updated weekly S1 at 1,310.77. A recovery of the yellow metal is not expected to follow, as the northern side is reliably secured not only by the above 55- and 100-hour SMAs, but also by the updated weekly PP at 1,325.63 as well as the upper boundary of a new junior channel down.
Comment:
Daily perspective:
Comment:
XAU/USD prepares to test 1,300.00
In line with expectations, the yellow metal continued to lose value against the buck yesterday, in the process crossing the weekly S1 at 1,310.77.
From a daily perspective, the downfall should continue today as well. But in order to do that, the exchange rate has to break through a combined support set up by the weekly S2 at 1,301.03 and the monthly PP at 1,300.04.
The fact that this barrier is located at the psychological level and also coincides with the bottom edge of a descending channel suggests that a rebound might happen at least in the short run.
However, even in the case of a rebound recovery of the gold is unlikely to last for long due to pressure from the slipping 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
In line with expectations, the yellow metal continued to lose value against the buck yesterday, in the process crossing the weekly S1 at 1,310.77.
From a daily perspective, the downfall should continue today as well. But in order to do that, the exchange rate has to break through a combined support set up by the weekly S2 at 1,301.03 and the monthly PP at 1,300.04.
The fact that this barrier is located at the psychological level and also coincides with the bottom edge of a descending channel suggests that a rebound might happen at least in the short run.
However, even in the case of a rebound recovery of the gold is unlikely to last for long due to pressure from the slipping 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
Comment:
XAU/USD makes premature rebound
Contrary to expectations, the pair did not try to test a strong support level near the 1,300.00 mark. In contrast, it made a premature turn-around and bypassed the weekly S1 at 1,310.77 as well as the 55-hour SMA.
Such outcome suggests that at least first half of this trading day the gold might spend in further advance against the buck. However, it is unlikely that the pair will manage to break through the upper trend-line of a guiding descending channel that is additionally backed up by the 100-hour SMA.
This assumption is also supported by the general picture on a daily chart.
However, there is a need to notice that the eventual outcome will greatly depend on decision and comments made by the Federal Reserve later this day.
Contrary to expectations, the pair did not try to test a strong support level near the 1,300.00 mark. In contrast, it made a premature turn-around and bypassed the weekly S1 at 1,310.77 as well as the 55-hour SMA.
Such outcome suggests that at least first half of this trading day the gold might spend in further advance against the buck. However, it is unlikely that the pair will manage to break through the upper trend-line of a guiding descending channel that is additionally backed up by the 100-hour SMA.
This assumption is also supported by the general picture on a daily chart.
However, there is a need to notice that the eventual outcome will greatly depend on decision and comments made by the Federal Reserve later this day.
Comment:
XAU/USD bypasses psychological level at 1,300.00
As it was expected, most of the previous trading day the pair spent in a surge, trying to reach and break through a barrier set by the 100-hour SMA and the upper edge of a descending channel.
A decision made by the Fed to leave the interest rate unchanged an impulse strong enough to push the rate through a significant support, which was located near the 1,300.00 mark.
From a general perspective, further movement of the pair is expected to continue to be guided by bears.
As regards the current situation, after crossing the above psychological level the rate has not significant obstacles on its way up until the weekly S3 at 1,286.17, which is located at the intersection with the bottom boundary of the active formation.
Hence, the gold is likely to lose some more value against the buck today.
As it was expected, most of the previous trading day the pair spent in a surge, trying to reach and break through a barrier set by the 100-hour SMA and the upper edge of a descending channel.
A decision made by the Fed to leave the interest rate unchanged an impulse strong enough to push the rate through a significant support, which was located near the 1,300.00 mark.
From a general perspective, further movement of the pair is expected to continue to be guided by bears.
As regards the current situation, after crossing the above psychological level the rate has not significant obstacles on its way up until the weekly S3 at 1,286.17, which is located at the intersection with the bottom boundary of the active formation.
Hence, the gold is likely to lose some more value against the buck today.
Comment:
XAU/USD returns to 1,300.00 mark
A suggestion expressed yesterday was basically confirmed. The yellow metal indeed continued to lose value against the buck. The only exception was that it made a rebound not from the weekly S3 but a little bit earlier from the bottom trend-line of a senior descending channel.
However, a recovery of the gold is not expected to last for long today. Most probably, the pair is going to make another turn around somewhere between the 1,300.00 and 1,302.35 levels, as this area represents a location of multiple technical indicators, such as the monthly PP, weekly S2 and the 55-hour SMA. An aggregate of those indicators supports this assumption via sending strong sell signal.
A suggestion expressed yesterday was basically confirmed. The yellow metal indeed continued to lose value against the buck. The only exception was that it made a rebound not from the weekly S3 but a little bit earlier from the bottom trend-line of a senior descending channel.
However, a recovery of the gold is not expected to last for long today. Most probably, the pair is going to make another turn around somewhere between the 1,300.00 and 1,302.35 levels, as this area represents a location of multiple technical indicators, such as the monthly PP, weekly S2 and the 55-hour SMA. An aggregate of those indicators supports this assumption via sending strong sell signal.