3750, DRAFT 12, FINAL BINARY THESIS
Introduction - This is closure for binary forecasting for the people who follow it. Consider this draft as clarification for these two months as it relates to the standing long term forecast in Rumors of a Pivot, Part 3:
Details - These are two most likely routes to June FOMC. In theory, whatever ultimately happens should be simple variations of these two routes. In the situation it's not, just use classical technical analysis, and you should be fine.
Details - These are two most likely routes to June FOMC. In theory, whatever ultimately happens should be simple variations of these two routes. In the situation it's not, just use classical technical analysis, and you should be fine.
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WARNING ON VARIATION:
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4/26 12:40 PM ET
a) closing notes, vertical lines are FOMC (blue) and NFP (black)
b) horizontal dashed line is 43-year trend line
c) in both out comes, 6/12 FOMC should be an explosive move up through JULY 4TH
a) closing notes, vertical lines are FOMC (blue) and NFP (black)
b) horizontal dashed line is 43-year trend line
c) in both out comes, 6/12 FOMC should be an explosive move up through JULY 4TH
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1:02 PM ET, 2332.XX base case is bear route to 2195
a) should come around 5/23
b) and bull outcome would check top of channel around that time
a) should come around 5/23
b) and bull outcome would check top of channel around that time
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c) 2520-ish
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d) last note on a question I forgot answer a few days ago:
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1) in chart above, the "moment of truth or decisiveness for this timeframe"
2) is 2382 on April NFP release on Friday, May 3rd
3) back on the second round of Israel-Iran news
4) when price spiked to 2417-ish, my first call was for a retag of 2382
5) after which I changed it to 2422 first AND IF THAT DIDN'T WORK, then 2382
6) the reason is for trend mean reversion define by LRC waves
7) so we will hit a similar situation but on a bigger bar size
8) that moment should be 2382 again on 05/03
9) this is where odds actually favor yellow outcome in both trend/pattern
10) but classical TA insists that if red line doesn't break, then IT DOESN'T BREAK
11) and even it did break, it would need a retest later
12) so by the following Wednesday, 05/08 is the resolution of this binary outcome
13) in which either price will check-down from the top
14) or check up from underneath it
15) THE END.
2) is 2382 on April NFP release on Friday, May 3rd
3) back on the second round of Israel-Iran news
4) when price spiked to 2417-ish, my first call was for a retag of 2382
5) after which I changed it to 2422 first AND IF THAT DIDN'T WORK, then 2382
6) the reason is for trend mean reversion define by LRC waves
7) so we will hit a similar situation but on a bigger bar size
8) that moment should be 2382 again on 05/03
9) this is where odds actually favor yellow outcome in both trend/pattern
10) but classical TA insists that if red line doesn't break, then IT DOESN'T BREAK
11) and even it did break, it would need a retest later
12) so by the following Wednesday, 05/08 is the resolution of this binary outcome
13) in which either price will check-down from the top
14) or check up from underneath it
15) THE END.
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16. last revision of base case, here is gray route which starts bullishly, but fades into bear route:
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3:30 PM TO CLOSE THIS RIGHT, I CAN NOT PROVE IT.
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a) would enough computing power solve the problem?
b) I am not sure (like chart above:
c) because even if it plays gray to 5/8...
d) it can still finish bullishly like red, from a trend stand point, favored to
e) so for bears to truly be favored, it would be like this:
b) I am not sure (like chart above:
c) because even if it plays gray to 5/8...
d) it can still finish bullishly like red, from a trend stand point, favored to
e) so for bears to truly be favored, it would be like this:
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f) that's it
g) end of the road for me
h) if anyone want to hire a good forecaster (as full-time desk-job)
i) send me a message and we can work it out
j) otherwise have a good week!
g) end of the road for me
h) if anyone want to hire a good forecaster (as full-time desk-job)
i) send me a message and we can work it out
j) otherwise have a good week!
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4/26, 8:31 PM ET, STOP BEING SILLY!
a) from here to November 2025 is 19 MONTHS
b) 3700/2338=58.25% or 36.79% ANNUALIZED
c) since $250 in year of 2001, gold is 40.57% ANNUALIZED
d) so we are not talking about "SOMETHING BIG HAPPENING"
e) case in point in case you calling me out for cherry picking:
>>1) since $42 in August of 1971 (Nixon killed gold standard) gold is 105% ANNUALIZED
2) that's THE AVERAGE FOR LAST 53 YEARS, ok?
3) that means if I am taking the average for the last 53 YEARS to forecast, I would call for $6458 by Nov 2025
4) I am not calling that
5) I am calling $3700 (so not a special 19 months, an under the average 19 months)
6) and please understand this is not "bull market average"
7) this is ALL TIME AVERAGE
8) if I was calling bull average, I would be calling WAY HIGHER THAN 6500
9) if there was a BIG WAR (U.S. goes into Iran) I would be calling 10-12K
10) so don't let them sell you on "big war needed for $3000 gold)
11) for 3700 (nothing has to happen, AT ALL, because we talking UNDER ALL TIME AVERAGES)
a) from here to November 2025 is 19 MONTHS
b) 3700/2338=58.25% or 36.79% ANNUALIZED
c) since $250 in year of 2001, gold is 40.57% ANNUALIZED
d) so we are not talking about "SOMETHING BIG HAPPENING"
e) case in point in case you calling me out for cherry picking:
>>1) since $42 in August of 1971 (Nixon killed gold standard) gold is 105% ANNUALIZED
2) that's THE AVERAGE FOR LAST 53 YEARS, ok?
3) that means if I am taking the average for the last 53 YEARS to forecast, I would call for $6458 by Nov 2025
4) I am not calling that
5) I am calling $3700 (so not a special 19 months, an under the average 19 months)
6) and please understand this is not "bull market average"
7) this is ALL TIME AVERAGE
8) if I was calling bull average, I would be calling WAY HIGHER THAN 6500
9) if there was a BIG WAR (U.S. goes into Iran) I would be calling 10-12K
10) so don't let them sell you on "big war needed for $3000 gold)
11) for 3700 (nothing has to happen, AT ALL, because we talking UNDER ALL TIME AVERAGES)
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12) for the record, if I was using "bull market averages"
13) that would be $7950 for November 2025
14) and if you are wondering... YES, WE ARE IN A BULL MARKET
15) consider this issue settled
13) that would be $7950 for November 2025
14) and if you are wondering... YES, WE ARE IN A BULL MARKET
15) consider this issue settled
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16) wait stats are WRONG!
17) 3700 IS bull market average....
18) MY BAD... looking at wrong table
17) 3700 IS bull market average....
18) MY BAD... looking at wrong table
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19) in which case, do we still need a war?
20) makes me think bc we did from 71-75, that was Vietnam
21) and then whole entire war on terror
22) hm
20) makes me think bc we did from 71-75, that was Vietnam
21) and then whole entire war on terror
22) hm
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4/27, 11:48 PM ET, I HATE SPECULATING ON GEOPOLITICS:
1) but I can't avoid this one
2) the six major tops since 1971, was 74, 80, 06, 08, 11, and 20
3) excluding 1980, the last 19 months of the other 5 average 71% from the low
4) we exclude 1980 bc that time it was 381%
5) and also NO WAR that time, just a lot of tensions with... Iran
6) 74 was Vietnam
7) 06, 08, 11 was Iraq, Afghanistan, and a number of military operations in war on terror
8) 20 was global COVID, which is a war from a spending perspective
9) everything I have pointing at 3750 for next NOVEMBER
10) which leaves us 4 options
a) Taiwan
b) Iran
c) COVID round 2
d) to borrow from Rumsfeld, a known unknown
1) but I can't avoid this one
2) the six major tops since 1971, was 74, 80, 06, 08, 11, and 20
3) excluding 1980, the last 19 months of the other 5 average 71% from the low
4) we exclude 1980 bc that time it was 381%
5) and also NO WAR that time, just a lot of tensions with... Iran
6) 74 was Vietnam
7) 06, 08, 11 was Iraq, Afghanistan, and a number of military operations in war on terror
8) 20 was global COVID, which is a war from a spending perspective
9) everything I have pointing at 3750 for next NOVEMBER
10) which leaves us 4 options
a) Taiwan
b) Iran
c) COVID round 2
d) to borrow from Rumsfeld, a known unknown
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e) in other words, that's my way of accepting possible war thesis
f) bc odds favor war 4 out 5 times excluding outlier
f) bc odds favor war 4 out 5 times excluding outlier
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g) meanwhile I ran the incoming 45 days enough to call yellow route overwhelming favorite
h) but prior to 5/10 it should develop like red route in most recent chart above
h) but prior to 5/10 it should develop like red route in most recent chart above
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i) so despite a bear reaction to moment of truth's 2382
j) bulls come in hard 2330-2360 zone and drive this all the way back up
k) you would target 2480-2525 before a retest of 43 year trend line before 6/12 FOMC
l) that's a wrap on the wrapper
j) bulls come in hard 2330-2360 zone and drive this all the way back up
k) you would target 2480-2525 before a retest of 43 year trend line before 6/12 FOMC
l) that's a wrap on the wrapper
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04/28, 11:01 AM ET, LAST CALL FROM A MACRO PERSPECTIVE:
a) yesterday I discussed geopolitics in relation to the last "19 months" of a gold top
b) and stated that thorough trend engine break down overwhelmingly favors bull outcome
c) but that is weak analysis because it does not cover all the views well
d) so the gold's all time high was 875-ish on 01/20/1980
f) that's about 3625 for now and 3750 for next year
g) while keeping in mind other arguments, this number is really strong for 2 reasons
e) this was when Federal funds were between 13-14% on their way to 20%+
f) and 75 days into the Iranian hostage crisis which started in November of 1979
g) so it's very hard to imagine a scenario that is worse
h) both geopolitically and fiscally for the U.S.
i) so why does that matter for this time frame between now and May 23rd?
j) because the next four weeks eliminate "any remaining unknowns that is possible to make known"
k) in order to call what the top should be next November
l) meaning if the top is 3750+/-140 (3610-3890), then 2432 intermediate top is in = before 6/12
m) and I WOULD HAVE TO CALL BLUE ROUTE AS THE OUTCOME
n) against trend engine's overwhelming call for 2520 around 5/23
o) because what 2520 would mean is a 3890-4180 next November (with extra 1000 possible for unforeseen craziness)
p) so essentially, if I call yellow route at top
q) I would be forecasting something worse than war with Iran and that's really hard to imagine
r) why?
s) because war with Iran would drive up oil which adds a premium to gold
t) whereas war with China would drive up oil the first week
u) but a u.s. blockade of maritime oil shipments to China ...
v) COULD get oil cut in half, which makes that premium into a discount
w) and there's no reasonable scenario that Fed fund rates would rocket that high next year
x) even in a theoretical response to inflation driven by war time economy in Russia, China, AND the United states
y) so to sum it up, here is my last call for this zone:
a) yesterday I discussed geopolitics in relation to the last "19 months" of a gold top
b) and stated that thorough trend engine break down overwhelmingly favors bull outcome
c) but that is weak analysis because it does not cover all the views well
d) so the gold's all time high was 875-ish on 01/20/1980
f) that's about 3625 for now and 3750 for next year
g) while keeping in mind other arguments, this number is really strong for 2 reasons
e) this was when Federal funds were between 13-14% on their way to 20%+
f) and 75 days into the Iranian hostage crisis which started in November of 1979
g) so it's very hard to imagine a scenario that is worse
h) both geopolitically and fiscally for the U.S.
i) so why does that matter for this time frame between now and May 23rd?
j) because the next four weeks eliminate "any remaining unknowns that is possible to make known"
k) in order to call what the top should be next November
l) meaning if the top is 3750+/-140 (3610-3890), then 2432 intermediate top is in = before 6/12
m) and I WOULD HAVE TO CALL BLUE ROUTE AS THE OUTCOME
n) against trend engine's overwhelming call for 2520 around 5/23
o) because what 2520 would mean is a 3890-4180 next November (with extra 1000 possible for unforeseen craziness)
p) so essentially, if I call yellow route at top
q) I would be forecasting something worse than war with Iran and that's really hard to imagine
r) why?
s) because war with Iran would drive up oil which adds a premium to gold
t) whereas war with China would drive up oil the first week
u) but a u.s. blockade of maritime oil shipments to China ...
v) COULD get oil cut in half, which makes that premium into a discount
w) and there's no reasonable scenario that Fed fund rates would rocket that high next year
x) even in a theoretical response to inflation driven by war time economy in Russia, China, AND the United states
y) so to sum it up, here is my last call for this zone:
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z) in chart above there are 5 points worthy of note:
1) 2382 on 5/3 NFP, again, is "moment of truth" (the response should be a move under 2292 by Monday 5/6)
2) the low should be 2195 from Thursday 5/16-Monday 5/20, ***THIS IS WHERE YOU WOULD GO LONG AG/SILVER***
3) bottom of channel expected to hold, and price on morning of 6/12 FOMC should be 2250 (6/12-7/04 is where you leverage long)
4) July 4 top should be 2600-ish
-- FINALLY, THAT'S A TOTAL WRAP UP FOR THIS POST, GOOD BYE! --
1) 2382 on 5/3 NFP, again, is "moment of truth" (the response should be a move under 2292 by Monday 5/6)
2) the low should be 2195 from Thursday 5/16-Monday 5/20, ***THIS IS WHERE YOU WOULD GO LONG AG/SILVER***
3) bottom of channel expected to hold, and price on morning of 6/12 FOMC should be 2250 (6/12-7/04 is where you leverage long)
4) July 4 top should be 2600-ish
-- FINALLY, THAT'S A TOTAL WRAP UP FOR THIS POST, GOOD BYE! --
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3:12 PM, missing notes:
* above in d), I meant all time high on inflation adjusted basis
** in z) 5th point left out was September check down is 2430-2500, which means 3000 gets hit before November election
* above in d), I meant all time high on inflation adjusted basis
** in z) 5th point left out was September check down is 2430-2500, which means 3000 gets hit before November election
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Trade closed manually:
a) so no one gets hurt from my ending it here
b) forecasts need updating, I think I've made that clear
c) so I would feel guilty if you lose money because I stopped updating
d) so please don't use this post for day-trading
e) this post's purpose is to determine intermediate trend ahead of 6/12 fomc
f) which is still binary
g) the only true call for this post is to be long 6/12 to 7/04
h) if that changes, I will make that clear on 6/12
b) forecasts need updating, I think I've made that clear
c) so I would feel guilty if you lose money because I stopped updating
d) so please don't use this post for day-trading
e) this post's purpose is to determine intermediate trend ahead of 6/12 fomc
f) which is still binary
g) the only true call for this post is to be long 6/12 to 7/04
h) if that changes, I will make that clear on 6/12
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1) we will pick it up back here the week before 6/12
2) that's the only route I have back to this again
3) and it's not even likely
2) that's the only route I have back to this again
3) and it's not even likely
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BINARY DECISION, IT'S PROBABLY OVER:
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a) in chart above dark blue is adjusted route
b) barring a major shift after FOMC that keeps price over the median of channel
c) this is settled, and next move is long 2195-2200
b) barring a major shift after FOMC that keeps price over the median of channel
c) this is settled, and next move is long 2195-2200
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d) bc the 6/12 low looks like 2250
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9:22 AM, ceiling dropped to 2318.
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10:48, 2300. I only need 50 more people to make this private service work
1) first, the rejection at 2312-13 makes that today's ceiling
2) the tag of 2296 makes floor 2278 until 4 AM ET
3) I only need 50 more people now
4) again, if you are reading this and want 16+ hours a day coverage like this
5) I can start that service at 100/month
6) but I need 50 more people to breakeven
7) if you are interested, please send me a message so I can keep track of demand
1) first, the rejection at 2312-13 makes that today's ceiling
2) the tag of 2296 makes floor 2278 until 4 AM ET
3) I only need 50 more people now
4) again, if you are reading this and want 16+ hours a day coverage like this
5) I can start that service at 100/month
6) but I need 50 more people to breakeven
7) if you are interested, please send me a message so I can keep track of demand
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a) for chart above, just watch those 2 lines
b) its really hard to see this under 89 during NY session which ends in 4+ hours
c) I think lower for overnight
f) in which case I can see 2282
g) but for now pushing under 92 a reversal risk
h) be aware
b) its really hard to see this under 89 during NY session which ends in 4+ hours
c) I think lower for overnight
f) in which case I can see 2282
g) but for now pushing under 92 a reversal risk
h) be aware
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1:34 PM ET, 4/30/24, THIS POST HAS ENDED, THIS IS PRELIMINARY WORK FOR CONTINUOUS FORECASTING:
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