XAUUSD ANALYSIS - Fundamentals

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
The dollar remained in a range on Monday as we have seen for a couple of days now. As markets prepare for major events later in the week, my bias is 65% bearish as at the time of writing this review.

Upcoming events to look out for:
The Federal Open Market Committee's two-day policy setting meeting, which begins on Tuesday, and concludes with Wednesday's announcement. This event is the highlight of the week, where markets will be looking for incremental movement toward asset price tapering (Tapering refers specifically to the initial reduction in the purchasing of and accumulation of central bank assets).

Other Major news to look out for are:
- First estimate of Q2 US GDP growth will be released Thursday.
- Personal income , spending and price data Friday.

My outlook on XAUUSD , I would probably wait for the range to break see a retest and join the continuation. The breaking of the range from my bias will be below 1791 support, however there are a lot of things that can counter this bias. One is if there are no clear cut discussion of quantitative easing tapering by the Federal reserve , secondly there are other news to watch out for and lastly the delta variant of Corona virus.
However I am pretty strong on my bearish bias. This can easily be fueled by hints of tapering by the Fed. Reserve.

COT Report
Net position on dollar being held by non-commercial(s) have steadily increased over 2 – 3 weeks. Long positions have also seen a gradual increase over couple of weeks. Shorts have however reduced significantly over the past 6 weeks.

So i'll be waiting for the break of 1791 -1790 to get involved.

Please dont take this as financial advice, i could be wrong!!!


very good analysis
+1 Reply
@noyimosman thanks