Looking at the big picture again. Gold looks to have several key price points that it will encounter on the way down.
Here is how i see it. Given the ENERGY poised in the market, there is a high potential for price to collapse to the downside : Fundamentally the US dollar is strong
( Fed Restrictive Monetary Policy ) and Technically the US Dollar index is at ATH.
1. 1723 - this is the Fibonacci .382 level. Given the present monthly ATR = 115 , this should see gold break the Fib .382 in this month and move to 1700. (1815 - 115)
2. 1670 - the present consolidation low price ( March and August 2021). This break could take place within the next 2 months. This will be key to decision making with the break of support.
3. 1614 - the Fibonacci .50 level , certainly doable by September 2022.
4. 1570 - the longer term Fair Price ( 5 year moving average)
5. 1505 - the Fibonacci .618 , which was a level reached in the last major downtrend in 2014.
6. 1446 - My long term target for GOLD. A level that may act as the final support zone. We are talking 300 points here . This could be traversed by the monthly ATR in 3 bars.
However, I think this will take the better part of 30 bars.
Please comment if you have a similar , or diametrically opposing view.
Here is how i see it. Given the ENERGY poised in the market, there is a high potential for price to collapse to the downside : Fundamentally the US dollar is strong
( Fed Restrictive Monetary Policy ) and Technically the US Dollar index is at ATH.
1. 1723 - this is the Fibonacci .382 level. Given the present monthly ATR = 115 , this should see gold break the Fib .382 in this month and move to 1700. (1815 - 115)
2. 1670 - the present consolidation low price ( March and August 2021). This break could take place within the next 2 months. This will be key to decision making with the break of support.
3. 1614 - the Fibonacci .50 level , certainly doable by September 2022.
4. 1570 - the longer term Fair Price ( 5 year moving average)
5. 1505 - the Fibonacci .618 , which was a level reached in the last major downtrend in 2014.
6. 1446 - My long term target for GOLD. A level that may act as the final support zone. We are talking 300 points here . This could be traversed by the monthly ATR in 3 bars.
However, I think this will take the better part of 30 bars.
Please comment if you have a similar , or diametrically opposing view.