🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 15 - April 19]

International gold prices surged this week due to central banks' gold demand, expected interest rate cuts by the FED and other central banks, and heightened geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. Rising tensions in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, have increased gold's safe haven status. Central banks, including those in the BRICS bloc, are buying gold to diversify away from the US and the West. Lower interest rates by central banks like the FED are expected to drive up gold prices.

The unexpected growth of the US labor market in March, with 303,000 jobs added, gives motivation for the FED to cut interest rates in June. International gold prices have increased by 17% since the beginning of 2024 and have room to rise further when the FED cuts interest rates.

March CPI and PPI data, to be released next week, may strongly affect gold prices. Forecasts suggest that US CPI will rise by approximately 0.2% in March. If the actual data meets or falls below this expectation (below 0.3%), it will be favorable for gold prices. This would bolster the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in June. Conversely, if March CPI exceeds 0.4%, it could delay the Fed's rate cut plans and negatively impact gold prices.

📌Technically, if we refer to the monthly time frame technical chart, the gold price has formed wave 5 according to the Elliott wave pattern, continuing to dissect the Elliott wave on the weekly chart, we can see with the naked eye. Currently, the gold price is in wave 3, and the price is approximately touching the 161.8 fibo mark around the 2431 threshold. If wave 3 is officially completed and enters the adjustment cycle, but we need to see the gold price trading above the 2200 threshold to expect it. Gold maintained its upward momentum and formed another wave 5, continuing to conquer a new high price level.
Another perspective with the fibo time zone, the gold price may peak and reverse at the end of April or through May, corresponding to the peak of wave 3 and reduce and adjust wave 4, which is also considered appropriate. ly.

The trading plan for next week will first consider selling around 2383 and buying if the price adjusts to 2250.

Comment:

Over the past week, gold prices have experienced an impressive increase to $2,400 despite the strength of the US dollar and currently XAU/USD is trading around $2,360. The reason for this partly comes from the market's risk aversion as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to increase.

Comment:

Comment:

Gold falls below $2,349

Gold turned down to below $2,349 from above $2,362 in the European session

The market awaits US retail sales data and Empire State manufacturing data released this evening

Comment:

Gold prices have been supported by other factors including strong buying by central banks, rising demand from Chinese consumers and rising geopolitical risks.

Comment:

🟢Gold prices rose to approach the record high level recorded last week

- The rise was supported by concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel

- Gold in spot transactions rose 0.2% to $2,387.11 per ounce, and US gold futures contracts increased 0.9% to $2,403.90.

Comment:

Fed data showed output at factories, mines and utilities rose 0.4%, matching the previous month's revised gain. Mining and energy extraction decreased, while public service output increased.

Comment:

On the daily chart, after gold received support from readers in yesterday's edition at $2,365, it continued to rise but was limited by the original price level of $2,400 which was also a resistance point. target for short-term increase expectations.

At this time, the $2,400 level is also the closest notable technical resistance level and once this level is broken it will open up expectations towards the previously established all-time high. Will consider selling around the Fibo 100 mark, corresponding to the resistance threshold of 2430USD. Technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the long-term trend from EMA21. As long as gold remains above the 21 EMA, it remains in a long-term bullish trend.
In the short term, influenced by fundamental factors, gold may enter an accumulation phase with main resistance at 2,400 USD and support at 2,365 USD. It is worth noting that if the $2,365 level is broken below gold will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci extension of the $2,331 price point.
Recently, gold has been traded at a very large margin, so preparations are needed from managing trading volume and open positions/protecting open positions.

Comment:

✴️ - ECB's Schnabel : It may be prudent to continue to treat the Baseline Forecast as just an input for policy decisions or consider other changes to the framework, including in communications information, even as inflation continues to decline.

Comment:

This official still expects inflation to fall further but wants more data to strengthen confidence that inflation will return to the Fed's 2% target. "A strong economy and labor market are enabling the Fed to be patient with policy," she said.