Gold weekly update 05-09.06

Gold was heavily manipulated to the upside last week, but the price action negated the manipulation. The NFP provided the necessary volume and here we are - bearish again.


Macroeconomics


The debt ceiling drama is not over. A higher debt ceiling will come, but it is not clear when.

NFP is 12M high, more job were opened, ADP was also higher than expected. All these readings suggesting that labour market is very strong.
On the other hand, jobless claims are higher and unemployment rate is higher, suggesting that labour market is getting weaker.
Very mixed data, I don't know how the big players will react.


Top-Down Analysis

The monthly bearish manipulation was respected.

Last week, gold had a chance to form a bullish manipulation but failed to do so, instead closed as a doji.

Last week the price formed a double bullish manipulation, but on Friday the second one was negated. There is still a change that the price is in a very tight trading range, but a negation is a very strong sign of a change in direction.


Benchmark

All metals and benchmark indices are bearish. This means that the true direction is bearish and this is not just a temporary manipulation.



COT Reports

In my opinion big players are bearish.



Yields
Yields are bullish again, especially 2Y.


XAUUSD vs GDX

GDX also fell, confirming the bearish direction.


Gold vs Silver

Silver formed a high probability bearish manipulation, leaving behind double top liquidity.


Retail Support and Resistance

Price is far from its mean (the orange moving average). More bearish moves are expected.



Momentum

The price is in the middle of the band, meaning it could go either way.
The RSI is still very bearish. It is floating in the bearish territory.