4800, DRAFT 8-1, NEXT STEP SHOULD BE 2275
Intro - This should be the next step on our way to 4800. 5500 is now unlikely considering what Friday's top means going forward.
Details - Will break it down as we go. But be aware, I am not going to as helpful as I usually am.
Details - Will break it down as we go. But be aware, I am not going to as helpful as I usually am.
Comment:
4/15, 12:03 AM ET - Trends in play:
Comment:
a) these things are obvious
b) if they are not obvious to you, that's a problem
c) ok so bold black is medium term support
d) bold gray is short term support
e) bold red is previous short term support, now resistance
f) bold blue is "pattern resistance", or what is usually MAJOR resistance for this pattern
g) and the two dotted black lines are usually WHAT GETS HIT NEXT for this pattern
h) it just happens that most trend maps also agree that this is what should happen next
i) zooming in:
b) if they are not obvious to you, that's a problem
c) ok so bold black is medium term support
d) bold gray is short term support
e) bold red is previous short term support, now resistance
f) bold blue is "pattern resistance", or what is usually MAJOR resistance for this pattern
g) and the two dotted black lines are usually WHAT GETS HIT NEXT for this pattern
h) it just happens that most trend maps also agree that this is what should happen next
i) zooming in:
Comment:
j) so on small bars, bold red IS STILL SUPPORT
k) yes zooming in matters
l) earlier in DRAFT 7-9, I said that bulls had 3-4 hours window to make a move up
m) so to break past blue resistance
n) that time has not expired
o) but odds of this happening have been dropping like a rock
p) its 12:11 AM ET, give em 90 minutes to be safe'
k) yes zooming in matters
l) earlier in DRAFT 7-9, I said that bulls had 3-4 hours window to make a move up
m) so to break past blue resistance
n) that time has not expired
o) but odds of this happening have been dropping like a rock
p) its 12:11 AM ET, give em 90 minutes to be safe'
Comment:
q) I don't post entry/exit levels generally bc I want you to decide that for yourself
r) if you need help doing that, I don't think you are ready to trade yet
s) in some situations that are high value, I do but usually when its a big move I'm posting live
t) otherwise that's what I see now
u) furthermore, u are expected to understand the opposite scenario
v) even though I think it's a massive dog:
r) if you need help doing that, I don't think you are ready to trade yet
s) in some situations that are high value, I do but usually when its a big move I'm posting live
t) otherwise that's what I see now
u) furthermore, u are expected to understand the opposite scenario
v) even though I think it's a massive dog:
Comment:
Comment:
w) for those w/ me long, it's usually a mirror image
x) but can be easily understood as BREAKING BLUE RESISTANCE AND THEN
y) HOLDING RED SUPPORT
z) it should be OBVIOUS that in that scenario, you exit under 2400
1) so if you don't have a lot of experience
2) I've said this before, but will again, this material is probably not for you
3) because I make posts with the expectation that you have the basic classical TA down
4) if you don't have that down, please consider following the top 10 on TradingView
5) in my opinion, they are THE BEST period, but especially when you are new to this game
x) but can be easily understood as BREAKING BLUE RESISTANCE AND THEN
y) HOLDING RED SUPPORT
z) it should be OBVIOUS that in that scenario, you exit under 2400
1) so if you don't have a lot of experience
2) I've said this before, but will again, this material is probably not for you
3) because I make posts with the expectation that you have the basic classical TA down
4) if you don't have that down, please consider following the top 10 on TradingView
5) in my opinion, they are THE BEST period, but especially when you are new to this game
Comment:
12:23 AM ET, To sum it up, I expect all those lines to break except the last one.
a) and MAYBE THAT ONE WILL BREAK TOO
b) but it may be at stick-save or a save in general
c) meanwhile further out is bold blue meets bold black
d) here:
a) and MAYBE THAT ONE WILL BREAK TOO
b) but it may be at stick-save or a save in general
c) meanwhile further out is bold blue meets bold black
d) here:
Comment:
Comment:
12:28 AM, MEANWHILE, you are also expected to understand if the lower dotted line doesn't break:
Comment:
a) then, the evolution of that move would be like this chart above
b) bc I am not going to be around updating like before
c) so be aware and have a good one
b) bc I am not going to be around updating like before
c) so be aware and have a good one
Comment:
d) again so you understand the evolution of moves
e) WHILE BASE CASE IS A MOVE TO 2275
f) the BASE CASE + EVOLUTION WOULD BE FLOOR AT 2303 LIKE THIS:
e) WHILE BASE CASE IS A MOVE TO 2275
f) the BASE CASE + EVOLUTION WOULD BE FLOOR AT 2303 LIKE THIS:
Comment:
g) but this move CANNOT BE BE CURRENT BASE CASE, because both pattern and trend
h) say that light blue SHOULD BE BASE CASE UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE
i) that's a wrap for Sunday night, but now Monday AM
h) say that light blue SHOULD BE BASE CASE UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE
i) that's a wrap for Sunday night, but now Monday AM
Comment:
4/15, 8:33 AM ET, 2357.XX BINARY UPDATE, HERE WE ARE:
Comment:
a) what can be said about overnight price action?
b) within realm of our expectations BUT STRONGER BECAUSE PRICE NEVER REACHED BOLD GRAY LINE
c) so at first look, light blue OR SOME VERSION OF IT remains base case as price is under BOTH RED AND BLUE RESISTANCE
d) but you MUST ACCOUNT for the extra strength in price, what it means now, and WHAT IT COULD MEAN
b) within realm of our expectations BUT STRONGER BECAUSE PRICE NEVER REACHED BOLD GRAY LINE
c) so at first look, light blue OR SOME VERSION OF IT remains base case as price is under BOTH RED AND BLUE RESISTANCE
d) but you MUST ACCOUNT for the extra strength in price, what it means now, and WHAT IT COULD MEAN
Comment:
e) for now, it makes this move possible:
Comment:
c) but overall strategy concerning a move above 2370 remains the same
d) while we to "watch out for this move" the odds of follow through with respect to Friday's rug pull have not changed meaning fully
e) and as last night's clock on a break higher, this one has a clock too
d) while we to "watch out for this move" the odds of follow through with respect to Friday's rug pull have not changed meaning fully
e) and as last night's clock on a break higher, this one has a clock too
Comment:
f) the timer for this move is 1-2 PM ET and requires that it must hold trend
g) meaning if price intends to do this, it must look like it's trying to do it or "setting up for it before this time runs out
h) I call the clock a "moving clock" because the time price has left is RELATIVE TO HOW CLOSE PRICE IS FOLLOWING THROUGH
i) meaning if price moves to test BOLD GRAY LINE (as indicated by over pattern and overall trend"
j) the window of opportunity for that move ALSO CHANGES
k) ultimately, this is the difference BETWEEN ACCURATE AND NOT ACCURATE
l) is does the forecast UPDATE TO REFLECT ANY CHANGE OVER .2% IN PRICE OR TIME
g) meaning if price intends to do this, it must look like it's trying to do it or "setting up for it before this time runs out
h) I call the clock a "moving clock" because the time price has left is RELATIVE TO HOW CLOSE PRICE IS FOLLOWING THROUGH
i) meaning if price moves to test BOLD GRAY LINE (as indicated by over pattern and overall trend"
j) the window of opportunity for that move ALSO CHANGES
k) ultimately, this is the difference BETWEEN ACCURATE AND NOT ACCURATE
l) is does the forecast UPDATE TO REFLECT ANY CHANGE OVER .2% IN PRICE OR TIME
Comment:
m) after assessing 16-hour trends from various different looks
n) all that can be said is there SHOULD BE MORE OF THIS:
n) all that can be said is there SHOULD BE MORE OF THIS:
Comment:
o) so tactically speaking, you have to be aware of the red move in its window
p) but overall trend maps expects more price action in dark blue zone
q) but no change to overall expectation of a move down late Tues early Wed
r) that's it for this AM
p) but overall trend maps expects more price action in dark blue zone
q) but no change to overall expectation of a move down late Tues early Wed
r) that's it for this AM
Comment:
s) 9:47 AM ET, after a drop under 50, the overall picture would shift down a little bit
u) like this from blue to yellow:
u) like this from blue to yellow:
Comment:
w) for chart above, this shifting of this move can continue for another 30-36 hours
x) in the mean time while odds of red move obviously much lower now
y) double reversal rules still apply in its orginnal window
z) meaning before the original window expire price can still "red move's position" and add time to the clock
1) all this happens continuously while one of two things happen
2) either the overall trend/shape become "reinforced"
3) or new overall trend/shape emerges
4) a 2344.xx as I am typing on 9:54 AM ET, no changes to overall pattern EXCEPT
5) that recent unexpected strength overnight has raised the floor for Wednesday off 2275 closer to 2285
6) this may change forward yet again depending now many sideway zig zag you get before the break toward 2300 and lower
x) in the mean time while odds of red move obviously much lower now
y) double reversal rules still apply in its orginnal window
z) meaning before the original window expire price can still "red move's position" and add time to the clock
1) all this happens continuously while one of two things happen
2) either the overall trend/shape become "reinforced"
3) or new overall trend/shape emerges
4) a 2344.xx as I am typing on 9:54 AM ET, no changes to overall pattern EXCEPT
5) that recent unexpected strength overnight has raised the floor for Wednesday off 2275 closer to 2285
6) this may change forward yet again depending now many sideway zig zag you get before the break toward 2300 and lower
Comment:
10:07 bears insisted on correcting over night move towards original light blue route:
Comment:
a) in chart above so see how price added that "extra area" above light blue path?
b) to correct for that bears would need to go 2310
b) to correct for that bears would need to go 2310
Comment:
c) at 10:09 and 28.xx bears have taken both the bold gray line and the first of 2 dotted lines
d) and at 26.xx as I typpe, if sharp trend holds *use a straight line*, a move under 2310
e) would take out the second line
d) and at 26.xx as I typpe, if sharp trend holds *use a straight line*, a move under 2310
e) would take out the second line
Comment:
f) BUT IT'S NOT OBVIOUS BEARS HAVE WHAT IT TAKES TO DO IT
Comment:
g) the overall pattern demands MORE SIDEWAYS because 2 to 4 day trends are not obviously bearsish
h) and this situation is difficult to change unless more sideways happen
i) so they can catch up before the big move down
h) and this situation is difficult to change unless more sideways happen
i) so they can catch up before the big move down
Comment:
j) so let me close this morning with this:
Comment:
k) in theory, the shift would now become the orange path
l) but this is NOT TRUE until we see what happens at NY close
m) this because the this spike from 47.xx to 25.xx did not "eliminate any bull outcome"
n) that wasn't already made obvious by just holding 45 the rest of the day
o) so AT THIS SECOND, my call is a 43 close which would make yellow route more likely than orange route
l) but this is NOT TRUE until we see what happens at NY close
m) this because the this spike from 47.xx to 25.xx did not "eliminate any bull outcome"
n) that wasn't already made obvious by just holding 45 the rest of the day
o) so AT THIS SECOND, my call is a 43 close which would make yellow route more likely than orange route
Comment:
p) if true, then this move IS JUST ANOTHER VERSION OF LIGHT BLUE PATH
Comment:
10:37 AM ET, aggressive spike up now makes yellow path unchallenged favorite:
Comment:
a) the only thing to be careful here is "hard spike up"
b) to retake red spike's position in the morning
c) unlikely, but be careful
d) so while yellow route is plan A, red spike is STILL PLAN B
e) be aware
b) to retake red spike's position in the morning
c) unlikely, but be careful
d) so while yellow route is plan A, red spike is STILL PLAN B
e) be aware
Comment:
11:24 to answer the question of whether or not 2200 gets hit
a) in notes for DRAFT 7-9, I has said that I thought a 'version of 6-3 triangle' was going to develop
b) but then said later that it I realized that it's not a triangle
c) but I realized AFTER THAT, that it's not JUST NOT OBVIOUS yet
d) there's two parts to that question, basically how much and when
1) my target was 2195, but this number moves up the longer price takes to correct
2) so the upper limit of this number is 2250
3) meanwhile the there are two routes to this correction
4) the triangle which makes 2195 the target
5) and a delayed rollover that sees 2275 getting hit, then a move to 25xx
6) before coming down to 2222-2250
7) usually the daily bar for Friday, BEARISH BAR WITH $90 WICK makes the call easy
8) which means it should be a triangle
9) but $90 isn't what I used to be
10) vs top price of 2432.xx, it's bearish but truly ONLY SHORT MAYBE MEDIUM TERM bearish
11) while yellow route in previous chart above is the favorite right now
12) I can tell you right now, that it's not obvious that that the Wednesday spike down
13) is going to be as deep as 2275 or even 2285
14) bc to get there, bears have to break 2303
15) and they really only have one more chance
16) this means that after 2303 (or at worst 2285)
17) 2500 gets hit before 2250
18) and both by 6/12 FOMC
19) that's it for 60 days out
a) in notes for DRAFT 7-9, I has said that I thought a 'version of 6-3 triangle' was going to develop
b) but then said later that it I realized that it's not a triangle
c) but I realized AFTER THAT, that it's not JUST NOT OBVIOUS yet
d) there's two parts to that question, basically how much and when
1) my target was 2195, but this number moves up the longer price takes to correct
2) so the upper limit of this number is 2250
3) meanwhile the there are two routes to this correction
4) the triangle which makes 2195 the target
5) and a delayed rollover that sees 2275 getting hit, then a move to 25xx
6) before coming down to 2222-2250
7) usually the daily bar for Friday, BEARISH BAR WITH $90 WICK makes the call easy
8) which means it should be a triangle
9) but $90 isn't what I used to be
10) vs top price of 2432.xx, it's bearish but truly ONLY SHORT MAYBE MEDIUM TERM bearish
11) while yellow route in previous chart above is the favorite right now
12) I can tell you right now, that it's not obvious that that the Wednesday spike down
13) is going to be as deep as 2275 or even 2285
14) bc to get there, bears have to break 2303
15) and they really only have one more chance
16) this means that after 2303 (or at worst 2285)
17) 2500 gets hit before 2250
18) and both by 6/12 FOMC
19) that's it for 60 days out
Comment:
20) again this is why "updates matter"
21) and my view of accuracy does not move an inch...
22) accurate is updated, if not updated then you are history by definition
21) and my view of accuracy does not move an inch...
22) accurate is updated, if not updated then you are history by definition
Comment:
11:55 PM, ET, what I think is going to happen but can't prove bc I don't have time to run trend map averages to prove it
a) is the BLACK ROUTE from last night that called "BASE CASE + EVOLUTION"
b) which has a 2303 floor later in the week like this:
a) is the BLACK ROUTE from last night that called "BASE CASE + EVOLUTION"
b) which has a 2303 floor later in the week like this:
Comment:
c) in chart above, "the cleaned up version" update of that move
d) that I suspect SHOULD NOW BE BE BASE CASE if I had time to do all the math
e) but I don't so there's that
d) that I suspect SHOULD NOW BE BE BASE CASE if I had time to do all the math
e) but I don't so there's that
Comment:
12:47 PM, so short term still say this:
Comment:
a) for chart above and caution for PLAN B
b) it's 59.xx as I type which is pushing that red line
c) earlier I said the only other worry is PLAN B come back
d) which is this morning's red spike that did not follow through
e) I still feel that it won't despite being so close to breaking red line
f) but I don't have risk on and I am not watching
g) so beware if it gets above red line which is now 61-62
b) it's 59.xx as I type which is pushing that red line
c) earlier I said the only other worry is PLAN B come back
d) which is this morning's red spike that did not follow through
e) I still feel that it won't despite being so close to breaking red line
f) but I don't have risk on and I am not watching
g) so beware if it gets above red line which is now 61-62
Comment:
h) no, NOW 60 FLAT
Comment:
i) but at this second, I still expect 43 close and continuation of yellow route in chart above
j) which is a weaker version of light blue from chart at top
j) which is a weaker version of light blue from chart at top
Comment:
k) the difference is light blue was a "true sideways move", but yellow is "sideways to down"
Comment:
l) meaning if I was trading live, I would short 57 right now with 59 stop
Comment:
1:21 with this move from 54 to 58.5 now, stop shorting and wait
a) it's not obvious what happens here
b) just watch the short term trend line from 2324 low earlier
c) this needs to break,to make shorting favorable again
a) it's not obvious what happens here
b) just watch the short term trend line from 2324 low earlier
c) this needs to break,to make shorting favorable again
Comment:
Comment:
1:31 PM ET, I am not watching news right now, so I don't know if there's a driver
a) but if 73 breaks
b) the only thing holding back bulls total comeback is 2380-85 area
c) but it's not obvious to me that bulls are going to do it
d) if you want to be long the move
e) just use straight lines to trail it up
f) let me run daily vol limits for this just in case
a) but if 73 breaks
b) the only thing holding back bulls total comeback is 2380-85 area
c) but it's not obvious to me that bulls are going to do it
d) if you want to be long the move
e) just use straight lines to trail it up
f) let me run daily vol limits for this just in case
Comment:
g) so the the red spike (from this morning)'s comeback has 3 more levels to hit
h) again, this feels like news event driver, in which case levels are 73, 84, and 97
i) but bulls NEED TO MAKE IT OBVIOUS BY CLOSING NY ABOVE 2373
j) 2366-73 is a neutral close while under that means back to light blue route
h) again, this feels like news event driver, in which case levels are 73, 84, and 97
i) but bulls NEED TO MAKE IT OBVIOUS BY CLOSING NY ABOVE 2373
j) 2366-73 is a neutral close while under that means back to light blue route
Comment:
k) Im out of time, JUST WATCH RED LINE...
l) without holding red line, it's not obvious anything will happen
l) without holding red line, it's not obvious anything will happen
Comment:
m) this move has a clock too that runs out at 9 PM ET tonight or 8 hours out
n) and as long price is under 2366, bears are favored, for bulls it's over 2373
o) in between is neutral outcome with that leans bearish the more time passes without another leg up
n) and as long price is under 2366, bears are favored, for bulls it's over 2373
o) in between is neutral outcome with that leans bearish the more time passes without another leg up
Comment:
2:02, MY CALL IS THE SAME
a) if you play chart at top, it' still within the realm of light blue's move
b) but there's one difference, the move from 24-70 just now
c) has pulled the sharp move down in by 16 hours or more (this is counter intuitive, I know)
d) meaning that instead of 2275 by Tuesday night
e) AGAIN THE EXCEPTION IS BULLS HOLDING RED LINE LINE
f) and my view on that is same as yesterday's talk of 2430 and 2400... prove it
h) hold red line for 10 hours then we i'll take bulls seriously
i) AND PLEASE REMEMBER the longer it goes by and I don't update, the value of my forecast diminishes
j) so if I do not post, scrap the forecast and go with what you see
k) so be aware
a) if you play chart at top, it' still within the realm of light blue's move
b) but there's one difference, the move from 24-70 just now
c) has pulled the sharp move down in by 16 hours or more (this is counter intuitive, I know)
d) meaning that instead of 2275 by Tuesday night
e) AGAIN THE EXCEPTION IS BULLS HOLDING RED LINE LINE
f) and my view on that is same as yesterday's talk of 2430 and 2400... prove it
h) hold red line for 10 hours then we i'll take bulls seriously
i) AND PLEASE REMEMBER the longer it goes by and I don't update, the value of my forecast diminishes
j) so if I do not post, scrap the forecast and go with what you see
k) so be aware
Comment:
Comment:
l) notes type, above "instead, it's 2275 Tuesday night"
Comment:
m) the opposite scenario is mirror image outcome:
Comment:
with a close above 73
Comment:
3:03, 2377.XX, above 73 and we need a new draft
a) 4 hours ago at 2344 still, I said that this move was PLAN B
b) and then some fool shows up running his mouth as if we started talking about it
a) 4 hours ago at 2344 still, I said that this move was PLAN B
b) and then some fool shows up running his mouth as if we started talking about it
Comment:
c) and I wrote:
>> a) the only thing to be careful here is "hard spike up"
>> b) to retake red spike's position in the morning
>> c) unlikely, but be careful
>> d) so while yellow route is plan A, red spike is STILL PLAN B
>> e) be aware
d) further more before it hit 60 again I started discussing what it needed to hit
e) or HOLD
>> a) the only thing to be careful here is "hard spike up"
>> b) to retake red spike's position in the morning
>> c) unlikely, but be careful
>> d) so while yellow route is plan A, red spike is STILL PLAN B
>> e) be aware
d) further more before it hit 60 again I started discussing what it needed to hit
e) or HOLD
Comment:
f) once past 73, we have to look up
g) and I already said the the two levels after that was 84 and 97
h) so until I have time to give you DRAFT 8-2, those are your 2 targets
g) and I already said the the two levels after that was 84 and 97
h) so until I have time to give you DRAFT 8-2, those are your 2 targets
Comment:
3:19 PM ET, even wrote this about red line scenario 15 hours ago:
>> x) but can be easily understood as BREAKING BLUE RESISTANCE AND THEN
>> y) HOLDING RED SUPPORT
>> z) it should be OBVIOUS that in that scenario, you exit under 2400
... that's why I placed last target at 2397
>> x) but can be easily understood as BREAKING BLUE RESISTANCE AND THEN
>> y) HOLDING RED SUPPORT
>> z) it should be OBVIOUS that in that scenario, you exit under 2400
... that's why I placed last target at 2397
Comment:
POST WRAP UP
1) not obvious at all what should happen next
2) we need see how long the sideways move after 2397 is
3) we need a longg sideways period to prevent a swing to 2303
4) this means that 2382.xx at 3:38 PM ET, the most likely move after 2397 is 2303
5) but this is a very "weak minor favorite" bc its about 25% or 1 in four
6) while there's no other particular scenario over 25%
7) once again, the only way to keep up with price is to
8) update all the time
9) and the only way to be "ready for next move" is to have top 2 or top 3 outcomes ready
10) how else are you supposed to know what the next move is when "the statistical favorite does not happen?
11) you go to PLAN B and PLAN C if you have to, with the requirement that you know in detail what that moves should be
12) that's a wrap
1) not obvious at all what should happen next
2) we need see how long the sideways move after 2397 is
3) we need a longg sideways period to prevent a swing to 2303
4) this means that 2382.xx at 3:38 PM ET, the most likely move after 2397 is 2303
5) but this is a very "weak minor favorite" bc its about 25% or 1 in four
6) while there's no other particular scenario over 25%
7) once again, the only way to keep up with price is to
8) update all the time
9) and the only way to be "ready for next move" is to have top 2 or top 3 outcomes ready
10) how else are you supposed to know what the next move is when "the statistical favorite does not happen?
11) you go to PLAN B and PLAN C if you have to, with the requirement that you know in detail what that moves should be
12) that's a wrap
Comment:
AND HERE'S 8-2:
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