XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!

This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re also approaching the end of the year so markets will likely do the unexpected.

We have targets above and below on Gold but as you can see we’re sitting at the bottom of the range low. We’re still bearish on this but we’re expecting a small seasonal bullish move commencing any day now. For that reason we will limit the lower targets and stick with our first initial target of 1735. This is where we will be looking to either get more entries to sell towards or look for support to form to potentially take some long positions. We can see the power of the DXY which is causing havoc for traders at the moment but this is very close to hitting our bull target which is just slightly above.

So we’ll look at this with 2 scenarios in mind:

Scenario 1:

We won’t be looking for short term support levels, we will be looking for this to target supply levels lower down, first being our KOG target of 1735. This is where we feel if there is support there is potential to test the long trade back up towards the first region of 1755 and above 1777-80. We have targets outstanding at the 1795-97, 1804 and 1811 price regions so these could be levels the seasonal move could target. Please note, breaking and closing below the 1735 level will result in the price targeting lower levels. We still have our long term Excalibur target sitting at 1647 so if they really want to move it they can. We don’t think they will do that yet though!

Scenario 2:

We will be looking for this to go up first, we won’t be looking at the short term resistance level of 1777-80. There is a chance if it goes up to this level it can turn but instead we will look higher around the 1795-7 price region and above the 1804-7. If we see the price face resistance at this level then we feel this could represent a good opportunity to short the market back down. Please note, breaking this level and closing above it will result in the price going higher.

Support:

1760
1755
1735

Resistance:

1777-80
1788-90
1796-7
1804-7

In our honest opinion the best way to trade this particular FOMC is to not trade it at all or trade it with small lots that allow you to move with the price without panicking if the price goes against you. We have a way to trade these events so will be sitting back on this particular one and observing until we feel the market is at the right level to get into any positions.

As always, trade safe.

KOG