FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
SUMMARY - It's decision time again for Wednesday FOMC (9/22). Long term regressions favor black outcome. Intermediate and short term favor red outcome. The new low that occurred Sunday night to Monday morning is bending the short curves down really hard. This is what the binary outcomes look like.

DETAILS? - Both S&P 500 and oil look really weak. This is NOT GOOD for gold . GDX also down today while gold is up, all of this spells 1600 floor before 11/22 (next FOMC). Don't have time for more.
Comment: FWIW 11:33 AM ET WED 9/22: This is what I think happens today. I think at 2pm ET comes a "compromised" tapering announcement ( i.e. tapering, but no schedule). So... first, gold drops hard to 1760-65 and then spikes hard to 1785-1790. All of this followed by a zig-zag upwards to 1835 by 10/05 before ADP. The rest of the way should follow chart #004.
Comment: 11:38 AM, that said, would I be surprised by a move straight down to 1680 by Friday 6/24? No? short term and intermediate curves have crash scenario at 44%. But bearish all added up only get to 52-53% at best. While long curves still favor black route almost 2:1.