pjlbtv
Long

Longterm view on Gold

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
Pretty self explanatory, shaded areas are where I think price will turn, based on unfilled orders existing right outside those candles.

I'm particularly convinced by Jim Rickards(https://youtu.be/2xDSgOMifo8), who argues that gold             will go through a severe re-pricing whenever the relentless expansion of central bank balance sheets overwhelms the low-yield, deflation-biased economy we're currently in. QE/Stimulus does not work (currently ECB/JCB have been buying ~$200b worth of stuff EVERY MONTH) and all that misspent capital will have to be accounted for one way or another, ultimately through inflation . We're going to experience an inflationary episode much like the 70's when the dollar depegged from gold             and the world became pure fiat, except the paradigm shift this time around is for permanent money creation to become the norm, aka helicopter money, which arguably is a more sensible form of money (read here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenback_%281860s_money)). When the debts placed upon us become monetized by the very central banks they originate from, it will be known that deflation is dead, and there will be nothing stopping inflation from taking over and reclaiming all that misspent capital. Now is a risky time to go long general bonds/equities, focus on preserving wealth rather than chasing yield. %5-10 in physically owned gold             makes fine sense as insurance against severe market, rare as their occurrences may be, and the price currently seems quite fair.

Gold             made a drastic climb up from 1050 to 1250, assuming 1050 is a reliable floor the worst we'll see for gold             going forward is probably the 1090-1120 range. Although, it's totally possible the ComEx paper market gets slammed for whatever reason, if they are that bold then I don't really expect anything worse than 900. If you buy physical gold             you shouldn't have any plans to sell it for at least three years.
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