ActuaryJ

XAUUSD: 25/3 Today’s Analysis and Strategy

Short
ActuaryJ Updated   
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Gold was trading around 2166 on Monday; affected by a series of factors, gold prices experienced extremely rare fluctuations last week, with a single-week fluctuation of nearly $77. Last Friday, due to the optimistic economic outlook of the United States, DXY strengthened, and DXY refreshed its monthly high of 104.41. Precious metals faced a sharp sell-off, and the price of gold expanded its decline to around 2157.

After the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, it retained expectations of three interest rate cuts during the year, which put pressure on the U.S. dollar, but helped London gold prices rise to a record high above $2,220. Although the Fed has hinted that it may cut interest rates three times in 2024, the final decision will depend on economic data. Gold bulls may stage a comeback if upcoming U.S. data supports a rate cut, however, bears are also lurking, waiting for the next opportunity to suppress prices.

Due to the tense conflict between Russia and Ukraine, investors need to beware of further escalation of the geopolitical situation caused by terrorist attacks, which is expected to provide further upward momentum for gold prices. New home sales data will be released on Monday, durable goods, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed survey data will be released on Tuesday, and MBA mortgage applications will be released on Wednesday. However, Thursday will be the busiest day next week due to the Easter long weekend, when final fourth-quarter GDP data, jobless claims, pending home sales data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey will be released data.

Gold technical analysis
Daily resistance is 2250, support below is 2177-45
Four-hour resistance is 2186, support below is 2150

Gold operation suggestions:
Last Friday, as the market began to consider the possibility that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates later, the U.S. dollar index continued to strengthen. The technical aspect of gold was suppressed below 2186, showing a weak and volatile adjustment. The Asian market opened slightly higher throughout the day and came under pressure of 2186, and then began to fall continuously downward. Then it accelerated downward and broke through 2170 to reach around 2162 and fell into sideways shock. The US market reversed for a second time and came under pressure. 2180 fell back again and fluctuated downward to break the bottom and close. The daily K-line closed negative. The overall price continued to suppress and adjust at the short-term high of 2222, and the short-term long and short strength dividing line moved down to the 4-hour top-bottom conversion level of 2186.

Judging from the four-hour daily analysis, the current daily level is still consolidating in the range before it breaks through the 2145 position below. Today, the short-term resistance above is 2186. Before the short-term daily level does not break through and stands above 2186, high-level consolidation is cautious to pursue the bullish trend.

BUY:near 2145
SELL:near 2186

Technical analysis only provides trading direction!

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