After falling 260 pips with ADP news, gold reversed on NFP. The NFP showed that fewer jobs were created, which is a surprise compared to the ADP (it made a 12M high).
There is still a lot of sell-side liquidity, but with the recent price action, it seems that gold is going up. The main direction remains bearish as gold is trading in a bearish channel.
For next week, I think the price will first close the liquidity void created by the NFP and then move up to the 1950 area, which is obviously a strong psychological area. I am not sure how fast the price will move but if it reaches this area I will be looking to sell.
Macroeconomics
The data is mixed, but the market sentiment seems more bullish for now.
The CPI is forecast to fall to 3.1%, which is very close to the FED's target of 2%. The market will most likely price this narrative in and will go higher. If inflation is lower gold will continue the current rally.
The NFP was deflationary, showing that the economy is contracting.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, which is inflationary.
ADP showed that a lot of new jobs were created.
The readings are mixed, but the labour market is not getting weaker.
Inflation may coming down, but the labour market is incredibly strong, which is the main problem for the FED right now. The latest information from the FED is that they will raise rates this month and then pause.
The NFP was deflationary, the CPI is likely to be deflationary and the future pause in interest rates makes market sentiment bullish for next week.
Top-Down Analysis
The main direction remains bearish - longer term. Two weekly dojis are enough to push the price higher, but gold has not formed a reversal pattern.
On the daily chart I see that the price has made a new LL and is now retracing, preparing for the next bearish swing. Last two weeks some strong bullish manipulations failed and most likely price will use them as a reaction area to continue down.
You should know how the bearish swings are formed - taking liquidity from the buy side (intern) and then targeting the sell side (extern). This is what I see on this chart.
Benchmark
The benchmark shows that gold is going up for now, but it looks to me like a retracement.
COT Reports
There are some bullish changes in the gold reports, but the overall picture seems to be consolidation.
US Yields
As yields rise, I do not see gold reversing its current bearish trend.
XAUUSD vs GDX
As the DGX remains within its bearish channel, I am bearish on gold.
Gold vs Silver
This chart is unchanged from last week - temporary bullish move before the bearish move.
There is still a lot of sell-side liquidity, but with the recent price action, it seems that gold is going up. The main direction remains bearish as gold is trading in a bearish channel.
For next week, I think the price will first close the liquidity void created by the NFP and then move up to the 1950 area, which is obviously a strong psychological area. I am not sure how fast the price will move but if it reaches this area I will be looking to sell.
Macroeconomics
The data is mixed, but the market sentiment seems more bullish for now.
The CPI is forecast to fall to 3.1%, which is very close to the FED's target of 2%. The market will most likely price this narrative in and will go higher. If inflation is lower gold will continue the current rally.
The NFP was deflationary, showing that the economy is contracting.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, which is inflationary.
ADP showed that a lot of new jobs were created.
The readings are mixed, but the labour market is not getting weaker.
Inflation may coming down, but the labour market is incredibly strong, which is the main problem for the FED right now. The latest information from the FED is that they will raise rates this month and then pause.
The NFP was deflationary, the CPI is likely to be deflationary and the future pause in interest rates makes market sentiment bullish for next week.
Top-Down Analysis
Benchmark
COT Reports
There are some bullish changes in the gold reports, but the overall picture seems to be consolidation.
US Yields
As yields rise, I do not see gold reversing its current bearish trend.
XAUUSD vs GDX
As the DGX remains within its bearish channel, I am bearish on gold.
Gold vs Silver
This chart is unchanged from last week - temporary bullish move before the bearish move.
Strategy:
-Macroeconomics
-Market manipulation
-Liquidity calculation
-Economic and price action indicators
-MTF Pivot points
*Fundamental analysis
*Technical analys
*Quantitative analysis
Free group:
t.me/serpentforexclub
-Macroeconomics
-Market manipulation
-Liquidity calculation
-Economic and price action indicators
-MTF Pivot points
*Fundamental analysis
*Technical analys
*Quantitative analysis
Free group:
t.me/serpentforexclub