Hi guys.how do you guys cope in this market now? so hard right? but i am here. winning percentage over 70%! anyway,right now trading btc is very delicate. but from that pump to 6700ish(bitfinex 7800), maybe short term we have more upside coming.
as you see in the chart, btc always did something that we all know. it creates a high, but it keeps on creating high, until 4hr, daily rsi shows bear divergence. right now, there are many bears that think we go to 5k now. but, i do not think right now maybe. maybe btc try 6700~6800, even 7000 before big drop.
in terms of rsi and price, i think we have completed the drop from 6800 to 6000(bitmex), and finished off the bear divergence problem in short term. it hit 6700ish, but maybe that can be just the start of a new run, even though it can be short lived.
you see in the chart, btc will not drop 800 dollars or 1000 dollars without showing the climax of the peak. we bottomed short term at 6000, touched oversold zone,4hr. and we had the crazy move up. now you guys know i am fully bearish, but i do picked some good long picks that worked so many times.
now usually this needs retracement down, but since it is hovering high at 60~70 rsi zone 4hr, and bitfinex is keeping its price above 6680~6700, can mean something. so i am currently bullish, even in short term. some reasons.
1. consolidation in a bull flag->people should not short, even though it comes down.
2. bitfinex maintaining 6680~6700 price.
3. buyers at 6400/6480, keeps bouncing up.
4.if start of a short run, after bottoming at 6000 with 4hr divergence, in theory we should see 67 again, and maybe 6800/7000.
this bull flag started from 6200 zone peaked at 6700. usually if bull flag work, it would go up to the size of the flag. therefore,
if we go from 6400 zone now, it may mean 7000 is incoming.
of course, in terms of weekly, monthly chart, it is still bearish. and, it can always risk a big drop.
this is the bitfinex chart. if we have dropped, we have dropped already. it escaped the triangle, under resistance of 1hr red cloud.
if price maintains its current position, it can consolidate until the end of the red cloud and climb up. in 4hr, bitmex and bitfinex chart can be seen as
a bull flag.
if we go up, price could move like this. if we go up to 65 or 66~67, that means btc whales want to clear the downtrend line zone, go above first, then give some retracement to the downtrend line. notice that thin resistance lies at 25~26th. also do mind that ETH announcement incoming at 28th. we could go up very fast, or go down very fast.
if we drop from here, above chart is the expected scenario.
so short term, we have choices like the below chart. price can successfully defend 6400 zone, and go up after 10~18hours from now. or, it can drop from 6430/6440 to 6300/6200 zone again.
i am already in longs at 6417. it can risk of dropping hard any moment too. therefore, buy from 6000~6400. stoploss is 5800.
as you see in the chart, btc always did something that we all know. it creates a high, but it keeps on creating high, until 4hr, daily rsi shows bear divergence. right now, there are many bears that think we go to 5k now. but, i do not think right now maybe. maybe btc try 6700~6800, even 7000 before big drop.
in terms of rsi and price, i think we have completed the drop from 6800 to 6000(bitmex), and finished off the bear divergence problem in short term. it hit 6700ish, but maybe that can be just the start of a new run, even though it can be short lived.
you see in the chart, btc will not drop 800 dollars or 1000 dollars without showing the climax of the peak. we bottomed short term at 6000, touched oversold zone,4hr. and we had the crazy move up. now you guys know i am fully bearish, but i do picked some good long picks that worked so many times.
now usually this needs retracement down, but since it is hovering high at 60~70 rsi zone 4hr, and bitfinex is keeping its price above 6680~6700, can mean something. so i am currently bullish, even in short term. some reasons.
1. consolidation in a bull flag->people should not short, even though it comes down.
2. bitfinex maintaining 6680~6700 price.
3. buyers at 6400/6480, keeps bouncing up.
4.if start of a short run, after bottoming at 6000 with 4hr divergence, in theory we should see 67 again, and maybe 6800/7000.
this bull flag started from 6200 zone peaked at 6700. usually if bull flag work, it would go up to the size of the flag. therefore,
if we go from 6400 zone now, it may mean 7000 is incoming.
of course, in terms of weekly, monthly chart, it is still bearish. and, it can always risk a big drop.
this is the bitfinex chart. if we have dropped, we have dropped already. it escaped the triangle, under resistance of 1hr red cloud.
if price maintains its current position, it can consolidate until the end of the red cloud and climb up. in 4hr, bitmex and bitfinex chart can be seen as
a bull flag.
if we go up, price could move like this. if we go up to 65 or 66~67, that means btc whales want to clear the downtrend line zone, go above first, then give some retracement to the downtrend line. notice that thin resistance lies at 25~26th. also do mind that ETH announcement incoming at 28th. we could go up very fast, or go down very fast.
if we drop from here, above chart is the expected scenario.
so short term, we have choices like the below chart. price can successfully defend 6400 zone, and go up after 10~18hours from now. or, it can drop from 6430/6440 to 6300/6200 zone again.
i am already in longs at 6417. it can risk of dropping hard any moment too. therefore, buy from 6000~6400. stoploss is 5800.
Comment:
so guys, you see we have to understand whales right? you see in 4hr chart, we have red ichimoku cloud below. if they dropped it already dropped below. however, maybe whales want to pump a little bit first, to 65 or 66 zone, and give a retracement to the 4hr green cloud, 64 zone. if i was a bearish whale, i would want to short at more upper levels. if i was a bullish whale, i would try the daily ichimoku thin green cloud at 25~27th. so bulls and bears, they can get what they both want if this scenario works! for bears, even price go to 5k, they know 5.5k is where bounce can come. so shorting from 64 zone would not even give them 1000 dollar profit. so, most likely price has some chance to go up first. even though, it can drop down, we never know. but, always trying to understand what bulls and bears think is important.
Comment:
buy btc long from 6350 to around 6250. i am usually bearish, but i cannot but be bullish after what btc is doing now. i am longing btc, consistently buying. i am seeing inverse h&s daily, plus a bull flag. buy 3 times 6350~60/6310~20/6250. stoploss can be 6170. or, you can add 5800~6000 when it breaks everything. it will still bounce to 63 zone. target is over 6600dollars up to 6800. have good weekend!
Comment:
bitfinex making a beautiful falling wedge. buy zone for bitfinex can be from 6380~6500. bitmrx and bitfinex price is narrowing down each other.
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/x/HoSjtBO4/guys remember last july? yes, we had a falling wedge then too. 6080 long position worked, it went all the way to 8.5k. not that it will this time, but, this is a bullish formation. there are many bullish formations, but falling wedges in crypto market is such a good pattern we can risk going long. we are having this formation now in 3 months, i was surprised! so go long guys. buy zone. from 6250 to current price.stoploss is 6170, or 6200 to be tight.
Comment:
Comment:
we have broke the upwards channel of the falling wedge. in this case, you can go long at the retest of the falling wedge top line resistance. so there ca be these three cases, blue, red, and yellow line. red and blue are what i expect, but be careful of the yellow line which, invalidates the bullish setup. so open long 6407/6382/6357, stoploss is 6350. you can open short too at 6437~6460, targeting long position entries.
Comment:
1st and 2nd long entries, 6407, and 6388 filled in. sowe can bounce from here, or it can come to 3rd entry which is 6350/6360 area. just buy and hold until 24~25th. if we do not get a bounce up to 67/68 level until 26~27th, then we can sell.
Comment:
our weekly candle closed outside the descending triangle. we can go bottom sometime at november, but it will bounce back. now is time to accumulate alts.