Why Bitcoin fell out of the bullish trend cycle - MUST READ!!!!!
LONG NOW I YOU READ THIS NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you use, Trade, or have any interest in Crypto i highly recommend you read this post. Its a bit long, it has a rant at the end, but i think many of you will find it meaningful and hopefully helpful to you...
Note after writing: Crap i dont have enought posts to put links in here... Ill try to use the section below... IF not use google where i say!
Note I am an engineer and not a Financial Expert. I am fairly new to trading and thought I would publish my first post. As engineers we always like to think "Why" does something happen. After losing quite a few dollars to the "game of Bitcoin", i found myself digging deeper and deeper to find the root cause. Only to realize there is no real answer (yet!). Do NOT use this as financial advice, i highly suggest plotting this yourself in tradingview by going to the compare button at the top of your cart and selecting "TVC:DXY" and make sure Overlay on existing chart is checked.
DXY (Dollar Index or Dollar "Value") = Google "fxstreet dollar spot index" for defintion and Check out the 15m, 1hr, 4hr predictions and Chart.
BTC = BitCoinUSD (In this case im using XBTUSD - BitMEX for "BTC")
Why i am wrting this... To save you all a bunch of money and headaches and who knows what else!
Over the last few weeks ive been watching the minute chart tick by tick and seeing how DXY correlates (If at all!) with BTCUSD. Afterall, it is BTCUSD, right? And Just like a stock or another form of payment Bitcoin has to be referenced to something, correct?
This may seem very obvious to those not new at trading. For most in the Cryptocurrency world it is ignored, belittled, and rarely sometimes looked at this way. Thank you to @elshanti from OCT2018 for this post and this graphic which confirmed everything you see here and what ive seen in the last 2 months. ct 31, 2018
"Comment: DXY looking to break 100..lets pray! LOL
DXY" Link to Graphic:
Most everyone who is an expert at trading will refute this. I am not an expert at trading, or even a very experienced trader, but i am an engineer! :) Lets just say bringing this point up with avid traders seems to get them "Ticked" off! I even got kicked out of "TA Groups" for telling them the TA predictions dont mean much if the dollar is going to make a big swing that day, Consistently, and that annoyed many Egos, as im sure it may here if you read this.
DXY clearly has a causation with BTC. I would go as far to say they are Correlated, but i have not proven that 100%.. I notice at times when not many users are online (in any timezone) it seems to pretty much be ~90+% correlated to the DXY value (And *Usually* inversed).
My observations just like @elshanti:
If a trend is Bullish on DXY it is Bearish on BTC (Major Trends).
If the trend is not Major, but more "Sideways" (As Elshanti says) than the tick for tick seems to follow it pretty close. Obviously there is a weighting difference between DXY and BTC, and its Exponential... Especially when the candle is "RED" :)
What does this mean? Well - I am not a fiancial expert here as stated but i would guess that means that you are not getting a fair "Coin for your dollar" if you will... There is probably some technical term for doing exactly what im about to describe but ill leave that to the comments.
If the dollar increasing significantly in value, BTC should increase too, right? When "Sideways" Yes, it is usually true, however the weighting for green candles is significantly less , i would say about 1/3 to 1/2 of that of the weighting of the "Red" DXY candles. Meaning if DXY has a red candle and a green candle the same size, typically BTC will have a ~1/2 size green candle, or double Red, which ever you prefer. (I dont see it as a fixed ratio, but i have not analyzed it as a true engineeer yet)
MY THEORY*** Scam claim AND RANT alert! - Note the Rant has its purpose to those who find it meaningful to them. If you do, please respond and let me know so i can keep doing these type of posts!***
To me this means they are inflating the BTC every time it goes up... Think about it. If the relationship was "1:1" (Green:Red) we would not have these insanely volatile price swings... Why? Because when the dollar swings high enough back into margin that "BTC was not playing in" then it has to "Knock BTC Down". This is because the Green candles are SMALLER than the Red on BTC. Each time the price goes (DXY and BTC), then YOU are paying them LESS DOLLAR for MORE BITCOIN when this happens. Alternatively if the dollar decreases in value, BTC does so ~2x the ratio of Green:RED. This pushes the price of BTC even further away from the true reference point: "btcUSD". So when BTC is super high and you are FOMOing to buy in at 8k instead of 3k last year, realize you paying exponentially the ammount of BTCs true worth as we will understand by looking at the "Corrections" that occur when the dollar does trend UP or DOWN. In these cases i will only focus on the trends going down, because its very easy to think backwards from there, and the only real way i have found to show it true, each time, every time! (Again, when we have a bearish or bullish trend- Major trend*)
This allows the masters of BTC some "Headroom" to control the price in either direction without any significant impact to their financial strategy. I hope you are following me now. They use the news, their fellow pawns who love BTC (I am guilty too at times, not so much while writing this!) to basically create a digital currency that you are willing to pay exponential amounts of its worth. Granted if someone is willing to mine it, and they are using their OWN electricity, then yes i can argue that has worth because you are paying for it in energy. However most all home mining is disapearing and is left in 2019 to the BIG CORPS (Mainly in china, i thnk?) who are probably running on a nuclear power plant which one could argue pays for itself (Price should decrease towards zero with time! - HINT!) (Not going to make the argument Bitcoin is fake like 60 min here, different topic! Although that really inspired me to get this out there...
Please press the like button for me so more people find this and will understand this trend themselves for the years to come, when Bitcoin is worth 500,000,000$ in 2025! Im not looking for fame or any reward, im looking out for you because i was burned by the FOMO and still am, just at a much much smaller scale! (If you are trading coins period, you ARE part of the FOMO!) I cant tell you how many times the Margin exchanges killed me, and if I didnt use the Margin/Leverage exchanges in the distant past It felt like i was just slowly losing money and it wasnt worth my time, as without multipliers, the fees take your profit quickly! Call me a bad trader, or criticize me in any way, i do not care! It is only my ego :)
I hope you all find this helpful, and if you have it in your mind that you are "Down" bitcoin and need to buy some more to "Get back even", just stop where you are no matter how deep or how shallow the hole is. I promise you the hole WILL just get deeper. Ive tried using this as a method! Clear causation and the exchanges still have tricks to get you on that! Since figuring this out ive switched to trading stocks. Real assets! While i cannot thank the Crypto community enough for the people that taught me all the financial skills for TA, and just trading in general, I am no longer going to ever purchase any more BTC again in my life. NO it is not "the currency of the future" because everything is digital and secure. We dont even know who the founder is yet, and yet we think this IS THE solution for our payments in the future? Hello, wireless RFID chip credit cards have been around a long time now... And now they are making Debit/Credit cards in "BTC" using the EXACT same technology, only this "money" takes so many kWh to "Create", that it is actually having a negative impact on our planet by contributing to fossil fuel uses, and just in general a waste of energy! No im not a liberal, no im not a republican. I dont like labels, and i try to refrain from using them in the literal sense! I dont mean to turn this into a BTC bashing post, but how can you not after knowing this all and seeing it, experiencing it, and losing what really does have "pocket value" in the process? (Not alone man months of wasted TIME away from friends and loved ones, away from life!!!)
So go ahead and try this yourself before REACTING to this post without data to back your claim. If you have data i would love to see it, learn more, and read about it. Without it, you can go you know where! :)
FYI - in just a week of switching to Stock Trading ive turned "2" into "10"! Stop wasting your energy (physically to your body), emotionally to your brain, and stop wasting electricity that is getting more expensive by the day! You will not get rich trading BTC. Ive yet to meet someone who has. Ive met several rich people who own a lot of BTC, but that is different. Im sure an avid trader that has the secret key or at least is "Programmed to it" makes more than they lose and i respect that if you can do it! If you struggle with BTC like me, I highly recommend you trade some real stuff (Go open a brokerage account, and i dont recommend Robinhood!) and you will LOVE it compared to this silly nonsense. I understand there are reasons crypto exists, and i blame nobody but the government for that one! Make everything legal and truely free, and nobody has to dance around destroying lives. Ego is the disease of Mankind and the root of all evil. NOT MONEY. EGO*
Please ignore my rant. BTC exchanges are nothing but a casino and if you trade you know it (If you've been to one?) Thats not why i posted this. I wanted you guys to see the relationship between the dollar and the crypto and THE ONLY REASON i have added this extra point at the end on is to save you from getting burned like I did. That is all... If you are one of the few doing well with 100x leverage and you have some real buying power with that BTC, more power to you! (And i can only image what the hell you are buying?!)
Please give it a thumbs up for the CONCEPT - not the Emotions behind it in the rant following. I really would also like to see this become a real discussion on here. IF it gets moving maybe ill setup a live stream and we can all discuss this together on Discord. Not argue, but discuss :)
Be safe, pull your head out of your @#s, and quit the FOMOing! And Hit LIke (Or watch, or dislike or whatever it is on here!!)
End Rant. Im not re-reading this so applogize for any typo's or confusion. Time to go to work to EARN money :)
So go ahead and try this yourself before REACTING to this post without data to back your claim. If you have data i would love to see it, learn more, and read about it. I'm not trying to claim "Im right" and there may be a better explanation than this!
Photos to follow with the MEGA example first! (TICK BY TICK ON THE DAILY!)
P.S. Another NOT cool trend is the bitcoin dominance chart overlays. Go see why they can control any one coin at a time... Hmmm we could squeeze them all onto one coin, and then rob them of the other! ;) Have a good day everyone!
NOTE: At the time of writing this original post we are still stuck at the "upside-down rams horn" where BTC has not been able to go up in price at all because the dollar has Bitcion stuck at a price ceiling of about 7630$ :) If that help explain this, i do not know what does! (First picture to follow, then the big one!)
If you use, Trade, or have any interest in Crypto i highly recommend you read this post. Its a bit long, it has a rant at the end, but i think many of you will find it meaningful and hopefully helpful to you...
Note after writing: Crap i dont have enought posts to put links in here... Ill try to use the section below... IF not use google where i say!
Note I am an engineer and not a Financial Expert. I am fairly new to trading and thought I would publish my first post. As engineers we always like to think "Why" does something happen. After losing quite a few dollars to the "game of Bitcoin", i found myself digging deeper and deeper to find the root cause. Only to realize there is no real answer (yet!). Do NOT use this as financial advice, i highly suggest plotting this yourself in tradingview by going to the compare button at the top of your cart and selecting "TVC:DXY" and make sure Overlay on existing chart is checked.
DXY (Dollar Index or Dollar "Value") = Google "fxstreet dollar spot index" for defintion and Check out the 15m, 1hr, 4hr predictions and Chart.
BTC = BitCoinUSD (In this case im using XBTUSD - BitMEX for "BTC")
Why i am wrting this... To save you all a bunch of money and headaches and who knows what else!
Over the last few weeks ive been watching the minute chart tick by tick and seeing how DXY correlates (If at all!) with BTCUSD. Afterall, it is BTCUSD, right? And Just like a stock or another form of payment Bitcoin has to be referenced to something, correct?
This may seem very obvious to those not new at trading. For most in the Cryptocurrency world it is ignored, belittled, and rarely sometimes looked at this way. Thank you to @elshanti from OCT2018 for this post and this graphic which confirmed everything you see here and what ive seen in the last 2 months. ct 31, 2018
"Comment: DXY looking to break 100..lets pray! LOL
DXY" Link to Graphic:
Most everyone who is an expert at trading will refute this. I am not an expert at trading, or even a very experienced trader, but i am an engineer! :) Lets just say bringing this point up with avid traders seems to get them "Ticked" off! I even got kicked out of "TA Groups" for telling them the TA predictions dont mean much if the dollar is going to make a big swing that day, Consistently, and that annoyed many Egos, as im sure it may here if you read this.
DXY clearly has a causation with BTC. I would go as far to say they are Correlated, but i have not proven that 100%.. I notice at times when not many users are online (in any timezone) it seems to pretty much be ~90+% correlated to the DXY value (And *Usually* inversed).
My observations just like @elshanti:
If a trend is Bullish on DXY it is Bearish on BTC (Major Trends).
If the trend is not Major, but more "Sideways" (As Elshanti says) than the tick for tick seems to follow it pretty close. Obviously there is a weighting difference between DXY and BTC, and its Exponential... Especially when the candle is "RED" :)
What does this mean? Well - I am not a fiancial expert here as stated but i would guess that means that you are not getting a fair "Coin for your dollar" if you will... There is probably some technical term for doing exactly what im about to describe but ill leave that to the comments.
If the dollar increasing significantly in value, BTC should increase too, right? When "Sideways" Yes, it is usually true, however the weighting for green candles is significantly less , i would say about 1/3 to 1/2 of that of the weighting of the "Red" DXY candles. Meaning if DXY has a red candle and a green candle the same size, typically BTC will have a ~1/2 size green candle, or double Red, which ever you prefer. (I dont see it as a fixed ratio, but i have not analyzed it as a true engineeer yet)
MY THEORY*** Scam claim AND RANT alert! - Note the Rant has its purpose to those who find it meaningful to them. If you do, please respond and let me know so i can keep doing these type of posts!***
To me this means they are inflating the BTC every time it goes up... Think about it. If the relationship was "1:1" (Green:Red) we would not have these insanely volatile price swings... Why? Because when the dollar swings high enough back into margin that "BTC was not playing in" then it has to "Knock BTC Down". This is because the Green candles are SMALLER than the Red on BTC. Each time the price goes (DXY and BTC), then YOU are paying them LESS DOLLAR for MORE BITCOIN when this happens. Alternatively if the dollar decreases in value, BTC does so ~2x the ratio of Green:RED. This pushes the price of BTC even further away from the true reference point: "btcUSD". So when BTC is super high and you are FOMOing to buy in at 8k instead of 3k last year, realize you paying exponentially the ammount of BTCs true worth as we will understand by looking at the "Corrections" that occur when the dollar does trend UP or DOWN. In these cases i will only focus on the trends going down, because its very easy to think backwards from there, and the only real way i have found to show it true, each time, every time! (Again, when we have a bearish or bullish trend- Major trend*)
This allows the masters of BTC some "Headroom" to control the price in either direction without any significant impact to their financial strategy. I hope you are following me now. They use the news, their fellow pawns who love BTC (I am guilty too at times, not so much while writing this!) to basically create a digital currency that you are willing to pay exponential amounts of its worth. Granted if someone is willing to mine it, and they are using their OWN electricity, then yes i can argue that has worth because you are paying for it in energy. However most all home mining is disapearing and is left in 2019 to the BIG CORPS (Mainly in china, i thnk?) who are probably running on a nuclear power plant which one could argue pays for itself (Price should decrease towards zero with time! - HINT!) (Not going to make the argument Bitcoin is fake like 60 min here, different topic! Although that really inspired me to get this out there...
Please press the like button for me so more people find this and will understand this trend themselves for the years to come, when Bitcoin is worth 500,000,000$ in 2025! Im not looking for fame or any reward, im looking out for you because i was burned by the FOMO and still am, just at a much much smaller scale! (If you are trading coins period, you ARE part of the FOMO!) I cant tell you how many times the Margin exchanges killed me, and if I didnt use the Margin/Leverage exchanges in the distant past It felt like i was just slowly losing money and it wasnt worth my time, as without multipliers, the fees take your profit quickly! Call me a bad trader, or criticize me in any way, i do not care! It is only my ego :)
I hope you all find this helpful, and if you have it in your mind that you are "Down" bitcoin and need to buy some more to "Get back even", just stop where you are no matter how deep or how shallow the hole is. I promise you the hole WILL just get deeper. Ive tried using this as a method! Clear causation and the exchanges still have tricks to get you on that! Since figuring this out ive switched to trading stocks. Real assets! While i cannot thank the Crypto community enough for the people that taught me all the financial skills for TA, and just trading in general, I am no longer going to ever purchase any more BTC again in my life. NO it is not "the currency of the future" because everything is digital and secure. We dont even know who the founder is yet, and yet we think this IS THE solution for our payments in the future? Hello, wireless RFID chip credit cards have been around a long time now... And now they are making Debit/Credit cards in "BTC" using the EXACT same technology, only this "money" takes so many kWh to "Create", that it is actually having a negative impact on our planet by contributing to fossil fuel uses, and just in general a waste of energy! No im not a liberal, no im not a republican. I dont like labels, and i try to refrain from using them in the literal sense! I dont mean to turn this into a BTC bashing post, but how can you not after knowing this all and seeing it, experiencing it, and losing what really does have "pocket value" in the process? (Not alone man months of wasted TIME away from friends and loved ones, away from life!!!)
So go ahead and try this yourself before REACTING to this post without data to back your claim. If you have data i would love to see it, learn more, and read about it. Without it, you can go you know where! :)
FYI - in just a week of switching to Stock Trading ive turned "2" into "10"! Stop wasting your energy (physically to your body), emotionally to your brain, and stop wasting electricity that is getting more expensive by the day! You will not get rich trading BTC. Ive yet to meet someone who has. Ive met several rich people who own a lot of BTC, but that is different. Im sure an avid trader that has the secret key or at least is "Programmed to it" makes more than they lose and i respect that if you can do it! If you struggle with BTC like me, I highly recommend you trade some real stuff (Go open a brokerage account, and i dont recommend Robinhood!) and you will LOVE it compared to this silly nonsense. I understand there are reasons crypto exists, and i blame nobody but the government for that one! Make everything legal and truely free, and nobody has to dance around destroying lives. Ego is the disease of Mankind and the root of all evil. NOT MONEY. EGO*
Please ignore my rant. BTC exchanges are nothing but a casino and if you trade you know it (If you've been to one?) Thats not why i posted this. I wanted you guys to see the relationship between the dollar and the crypto and THE ONLY REASON i have added this extra point at the end on is to save you from getting burned like I did. That is all... If you are one of the few doing well with 100x leverage and you have some real buying power with that BTC, more power to you! (And i can only image what the hell you are buying?!)
Please give it a thumbs up for the CONCEPT - not the Emotions behind it in the rant following. I really would also like to see this become a real discussion on here. IF it gets moving maybe ill setup a live stream and we can all discuss this together on Discord. Not argue, but discuss :)
Be safe, pull your head out of your @#s, and quit the FOMOing! And Hit LIke (Or watch, or dislike or whatever it is on here!!)
End Rant. Im not re-reading this so applogize for any typo's or confusion. Time to go to work to EARN money :)
So go ahead and try this yourself before REACTING to this post without data to back your claim. If you have data i would love to see it, learn more, and read about it. I'm not trying to claim "Im right" and there may be a better explanation than this!
Photos to follow with the MEGA example first! (TICK BY TICK ON THE DAILY!)
P.S. Another NOT cool trend is the bitcoin dominance chart overlays. Go see why they can control any one coin at a time... Hmmm we could squeeze them all onto one coin, and then rob them of the other! ;) Have a good day everyone!
NOTE: At the time of writing this original post we are still stuck at the "upside-down rams horn" where BTC has not been able to go up in price at all because the dollar has Bitcion stuck at a price ceiling of about 7630$ :) If that help explain this, i do not know what does! (First picture to follow, then the big one!)
Trade closed manually:
Everyone! Thanks for the likes and follows.
PLEASE ALWAYS CHECK THE TRENDS YOURSELF! In the last few days ive noticed a COMPLETE SWAP of the correlation!!!
This could mean many things.
Personally I believe we may have hit the top. I know everything says big giant bull flag on BTC! With the Trend reversed it makes sense if they would want to move the other direction and "scalp the dollar" going down... PLEASE Add DXY to your charts and monitor daily!!!
Thanks & I hoped this helped/helps. I will not be writing too many updates as i expect you guys to look for this yourselves now. I just will look for trends/indicators and post them if i feel they have merit.
PLEASE ALWAYS CHECK THE TRENDS YOURSELF! In the last few days ive noticed a COMPLETE SWAP of the correlation!!!
This could mean many things.
Personally I believe we may have hit the top. I know everything says big giant bull flag on BTC! With the Trend reversed it makes sense if they would want to move the other direction and "scalp the dollar" going down... PLEASE Add DXY to your charts and monitor daily!!!
Thanks & I hoped this helped/helps. I will not be writing too many updates as i expect you guys to look for this yourselves now. I just will look for trends/indicators and post them if i feel they have merit.
