Bitcoin lost 7-8% yesterday and we price touched an important area support. Several factors support the assumption of strong support around $10,000 to $9,800:
1. The 89 days EMA acted as support for several time already and so far held on all attempts in the near past.
2. It is also the lower side of an triangle, that is beginning end of June and we are currently for about 60 days and will last for maximum 90 days. More often than not a strong move based on a triangle pattern is expected around 2/3 of the duration. Whether is breaks to the top or bottom.
3. Another line of support in my opinion is the median line of the downward channel . As you can see it also acted as support and resistance several times in the past.
As 2. and 3. are drawn by me, I weigh their significance a little lower than the 89 EMA . If you look to the past you will realise that exponential moving averages based on Fibonacci numbers acted as a good dynamic and support and resistance so far. Therefore, I weigh this EMA the most.
So what does this all means:
1. Support holds and we see more bullish price action and I would expect Bitcoin's price to rise to the upper side of the triangle, around $11.000. If we reach this level, the situation is reversed and we are at a of resistance and we will try to estimate whether Bitcoin can break out of the pattern or not.
2. Support breaks to the downside, would be considered as a bearish sign by me and I could imagine an extended correction for Bitcoin . Next stop probably around 144 EMA and $9,000 - $8.700.
Based on the information I provided here, I would slightly lean to more bullish price action for the coming days, because of the strong area of support and we are still in an uptrend. I hope we can rely on the bulls to take their opportunity here, but we need to wait for confirmation by price action which scenario starts to act.
The market is in a very choppy situation is ranging up and down in an increasingly compressed manner (swings get smaller), this is a risky situation if you want to play this market. Therefore, I remain mainly on the sideline until we have clear signal again.
If we approach one of the target areas mentioned in 1. and 2. I will evaluate the situation again. Markets are a game of probabilities and therefore I try to find possible scenarios and try to weigh them based on the information I receive from the technical indicators and the chart itself. By doing this I only look for the current situation we are currently in and take the past into account. We need to find this little edge, for a scenario happening more often than not.
1. The 89 days EMA acted as support for several time already and so far held on all attempts in the near past.
2. It is also the lower side of an triangle, that is beginning end of June and we are currently for about 60 days and will last for maximum 90 days. More often than not a strong move based on a triangle pattern is expected around 2/3 of the duration. Whether is breaks to the top or bottom.
3. Another line of support in my opinion is the median line of the downward channel . As you can see it also acted as support and resistance several times in the past.
As 2. and 3. are drawn by me, I weigh their significance a little lower than the 89 EMA . If you look to the past you will realise that exponential moving averages based on Fibonacci numbers acted as a good dynamic and support and resistance so far. Therefore, I weigh this EMA the most.
So what does this all means:
1. Support holds and we see more bullish price action and I would expect Bitcoin's price to rise to the upper side of the triangle, around $11.000. If we reach this level, the situation is reversed and we are at a of resistance and we will try to estimate whether Bitcoin can break out of the pattern or not.
2. Support breaks to the downside, would be considered as a bearish sign by me and I could imagine an extended correction for Bitcoin . Next stop probably around 144 EMA and $9,000 - $8.700.
Based on the information I provided here, I would slightly lean to more bullish price action for the coming days, because of the strong area of support and we are still in an uptrend. I hope we can rely on the bulls to take their opportunity here, but we need to wait for confirmation by price action which scenario starts to act.
The market is in a very choppy situation is ranging up and down in an increasingly compressed manner (swings get smaller), this is a risky situation if you want to play this market. Therefore, I remain mainly on the sideline until we have clear signal again.
If we approach one of the target areas mentioned in 1. and 2. I will evaluate the situation again. Markets are a game of probabilities and therefore I try to find possible scenarios and try to weigh them based on the information I receive from the technical indicators and the chart itself. By doing this I only look for the current situation we are currently in and take the past into account. We need to find this little edge, for a scenario happening more often than not.
Comment:
Additionally, I want to point your attention to one more indicator, I regularly keep and eye on: Fear&Greed Index.
It is a substantial ingredient of my Bitcoin market updates, I publish on my website.
The F&G is a calculated based on various data source, e.g. volatility, sentiment, volume, trends and dominance.
Why do I mention this now, because yesterday we reached an index value of 5, which was the lowest for the period of recording. It signals extrem fear and might be an indicator that we have seen enough downward action for the moment.
Today F&G is back to 33, in a rather indecisive area from my point of view.
I just wanted to point your attention to this little indicator outside of tradingview, maybe it enriches your analysis at some point.
You can find it here: alternative.me/crypt...ear-and-greed-index/
Additionally, I want to point your attention to one more indicator, I regularly keep and eye on: Fear&Greed Index.
It is a substantial ingredient of my Bitcoin market updates, I publish on my website.
The F&G is a calculated based on various data source, e.g. volatility, sentiment, volume, trends and dominance.
Why do I mention this now, because yesterday we reached an index value of 5, which was the lowest for the period of recording. It signals extrem fear and might be an indicator that we have seen enough downward action for the moment.
Today F&G is back to 33, in a rather indecisive area from my point of view.
I just wanted to point your attention to this little indicator outside of tradingview, maybe it enriches your analysis at some point.
You can find it here: alternative.me/crypt...ear-and-greed-index/
What do you expect from BTC?