Hi guys, a month ago the downtrend line was around $8500, that was where everyone would have opened up their 25X longs on bitmex and celebrated their earnings by sharing screenshots of their realised pnl. but now a month later, everyone is waiting for the break of 7800, so they can long bitcoin and turn off their computer till Christmas and buy a lot more presents, because of the bull run. NO!, a month has passed and the downtrend line became an errant psychological barrier, now everyone is cautious and selling, I bet a lot of people opened shorts with a stop loss just above that trend line, I mean look at the bear divs on the h4 and h2 and h1 and m30 timeframes, and the daily rsi is at resistance, shorting seems like a great idea, everyone must be short and content! I am long now with a stop loss at 7500, because as long as we are above 7600 we are not going to respect that trend line at all, IMO. I marked the zone of selling, it stops at a high of 8900, if we pass that level, and hold for one week then even I will become bullish, otherwise, we could probably buy bitcoin at the next zone of accumulation, I'll highlight it in the updates. So long story short, we are going to distribution zone 2 in my opinion. Good luck!!!! in conclusion, trend lines are often an illusion created by the movement of time, and they can have a dramatic effect on market psychology, but zones of resistance stay the same, so while some things change, other things stay the same, it is our job to find the unchanging, and sort it out from the changing, and, in the same way that water can over time wear down rock to create a canyon, we can wear down the market to create a canyon of riches. ok I really couldn't work out how to finish that analogy, but you get the picture, canyons are cool, and water literally did nothing but what it naturally does, you are the water, the markets are the mountain, make a canyon. now even I'm lost. Whatever, just don't get rekt.
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so now I am long, to hopefully $8900, hopefully eos and a few alts pump pretty hard, then I expect to go to the next accumulation zone, or to go to $12000, I am currently trading expecting the purple pathway to take occur.
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hi guys, just in case I was confusing, I am long since 7620, my 7200 buys got missed while working, and 8200-8900 is the selling zone. not the buying zone.
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I said 25x longs, I meant shorts! In the main thread, I'm really tired coz it's been a risky trading area. Sorry.
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Also the most likely top is 8400, be very very cautious around 8200, they're hunting for bulls.
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That was fast, should see alt pumps now, then I will sell to fiat and see if we are going higher, but first I will hope to profit on my alt trades. Happy days, don't get too comfortable, we are still in bull trap territory. The trade is both active and closed.
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No time to make new chart, the final target is now $9400. Crazy FOMO, or bull run beginnings? Enjoy the alt pumps!
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I like all this fear, fear is my friend. Party time.
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Volumes not too good, will reactive $9400 when $8400 is crossed with volume. Until then Alts should move before dump. Trade closed, but will reactivate higher target later. But we did smash into the main sell point near $8500, so successful trade all round. Good stuff.
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Activate $8900, stoploss daily below $8100.
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That's the next trade after this one, will post a new chart for all of the scalp trades from the local bottoms.
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a message about my alt trades: REKT.
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probably want bitcoin to bounce here if we want to see more upside at all. nice little spring right now.
Trade closed: stop reached:
I expected the fractal triangle to break to the upside, but it didn't , luckiliy my xrp and ltc trades are counter trending btc at the moment, so I am no tin very much loss right now, I'll be looking to sell at 7800, we dropped well under the bullish price range, we will likely respect the downtrend line now. fractal busted, Trade closed, target 1 and 2 reached, target 3, $8900, was not given to us by the markets. FOMO capitulation complete, likely the etf is a non event now. sad, expectations for $5800/$4500 area now, have bounce dates and potential prices marked, this idea is closed. expect pumps on the alts during bear flags, also a great time to rest from the markets and wait for safer trades.
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oh except that btc is obviously a buy now, for scalp trades.
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Following a more bearish path than I expected, trade with care, also I update my trades on telegram, as I often don't get time to come here, but tv has house rules about that. Sorry.
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this belongs on my new idea, but I don't have time to work on it right now, so just a short term update.
bearflag to 7350 most likely.
bearflag to 7350 most likely.