SHORT POSITION REMAINS OPEN. 2 SCENARIOS PLANNED OUT AND WAITING
First TP hit and 20% of position closed with profit at $8800. Now it is wait and see time. This is the time frame people lose a lot of money trying to guess which way BTC will go next. DO NOT DO THIS. Learn to sit on your hands and watch. Develop a strategy and plan; so if BTC does this I'll do that... As of now looking for 2 possible outcomes.
1) BEARISH SCENARIO: The ORANGE LINE shows BTC continuing up to $9100 before continuing down.
---Should this happen and BTC breaks downs through the MAJOR DAILY TREND LINE I'll be looking for a stong close below $8600-8700
---At this point. I'll be convinced of an overall market reversal and will be looking for my next TP around $8300-8500 (the PINK LINES are the 0.5 and 0.618 FIBs drawn on the daily from the 2019 low of $6410 to the most recent high of $10550).
---With a bounce at these levels and confirmation/re-test of the same trend line around $8900-9000, Ill be looking to add again to my short position, before falling back down to hit my next 2 TP points at $8000 (0.618 FIB) and then at $7600.
2) BULLISH SCENARIO: The BLUE LINE shows BTC continuing up for confirmation/re-test of the MAJOR TREND LINE supporting the neckline for the H&S at $9400-9600.
---Should this happen, I'll be watching closely. Moved my SL to $9700 which is perfect because should it get hit I'll be convinced of a continuation of the overall pattern and will open a long.
---With a drop down from this level, I'll be looking for a what I call a nice "F$%^ Y#$" wick which is a stop-hunt and should allow me to get a TP hit around $8800-9000.
---Should this happen, I'll be looking to close my short and open a long position as this will be a double bottom; however, I'll be watching this area closely because a strong close of any candle body on the 4HR will cancel out this bullish scenario and I predict price will then follow the ORANGE LINE (BEARISH SCENARIO).
---Should we get a bounce from this level, I'll be looking for a break of the MAJOR TREND LINE and I'll be convinced of continuation of the uptrend and will remain bullish on the macro level.
---My first TP will be set around $9800-10000 before dropping down for a confirmation/re-test of the same MAJOR TREND LINE around $9300-9600 where I'll be looking to add to my long position.
---Should this happen, I'll remain conservative and be looking for a double top scenario with a TP around $10300-10500.
---At this point I have no clue what to expect but I'll be again looking at 2 scenarios. My bias would remain BULLISH with pullback around $9800-10000 before HEADING TO THE MOON. My concern would be that a double top scenario at the yearly top on the daily would lead to a market reversal.
I know this is a long explanation of what ifs and most of you won't read this but for those that do remember failure to plan is planning to fail. Be patient have a strategy that has been proven through backtesting that works for you and rules for entering and exiting the market. But most important, have a plan for the future of the market and apply your strategy to that plan so you know exactly what to do when that moment comes. Many people have strategies they go by but fail to implement them when it's crunch time and typically that is because they failed to plan. If you plan it out it is much easier to implement your strategy because the price action was expected instead of being reactionary and very uncertain.
1) BEARISH SCENARIO: The ORANGE LINE shows BTC continuing up to $9100 before continuing down.
---Should this happen and BTC breaks downs through the MAJOR DAILY TREND LINE I'll be looking for a stong close below $8600-8700
---At this point. I'll be convinced of an overall market reversal and will be looking for my next TP around $8300-8500 (the PINK LINES are the 0.5 and 0.618 FIBs drawn on the daily from the 2019 low of $6410 to the most recent high of $10550).
---With a bounce at these levels and confirmation/re-test of the same trend line around $8900-9000, Ill be looking to add again to my short position, before falling back down to hit my next 2 TP points at $8000 (0.618 FIB) and then at $7600.
2) BULLISH SCENARIO: The BLUE LINE shows BTC continuing up for confirmation/re-test of the MAJOR TREND LINE supporting the neckline for the H&S at $9400-9600.
---Should this happen, I'll be watching closely. Moved my SL to $9700 which is perfect because should it get hit I'll be convinced of a continuation of the overall pattern and will open a long.
---With a drop down from this level, I'll be looking for a what I call a nice "F$%^ Y#$" wick which is a stop-hunt and should allow me to get a TP hit around $8800-9000.
---Should this happen, I'll be looking to close my short and open a long position as this will be a double bottom; however, I'll be watching this area closely because a strong close of any candle body on the 4HR will cancel out this bullish scenario and I predict price will then follow the ORANGE LINE (BEARISH SCENARIO).
---Should we get a bounce from this level, I'll be looking for a break of the MAJOR TREND LINE and I'll be convinced of continuation of the uptrend and will remain bullish on the macro level.
---My first TP will be set around $9800-10000 before dropping down for a confirmation/re-test of the same MAJOR TREND LINE around $9300-9600 where I'll be looking to add to my long position.
---Should this happen, I'll remain conservative and be looking for a double top scenario with a TP around $10300-10500.
---At this point I have no clue what to expect but I'll be again looking at 2 scenarios. My bias would remain BULLISH with pullback around $9800-10000 before HEADING TO THE MOON. My concern would be that a double top scenario at the yearly top on the daily would lead to a market reversal.
I know this is a long explanation of what ifs and most of you won't read this but for those that do remember failure to plan is planning to fail. Be patient have a strategy that has been proven through backtesting that works for you and rules for entering and exiting the market. But most important, have a plan for the future of the market and apply your strategy to that plan so you know exactly what to do when that moment comes. Many people have strategies they go by but fail to implement them when it's crunch time and typically that is because they failed to plan. If you plan it out it is much easier to implement your strategy because the price action was expected instead of being reactionary and very uncertain.
Trade active:
With price action over the weekend allowing BTC to drop below and remain below this major trend line, I'm convinced of and overall market reversal and will remain in my short. Looking to add around $9000. Keeping in mind that price could reach $9400 before dropping back down, I will be conservative with any short entries I add to my overall short.
Trade closed manually:
I anticipated with price falling below the MAJOR TREND LINE that we'd see a retest/confirmation and continue down. However, after the bounce off 0.5FIB and multiple candle closes back above that same MAJOR TREND LINE, I am not as certain of overall market reversal. I closed my short and open a long at $8877 and took initial profit of 25% my position at TP1. Moved my SL to break even and if we close below $8800-8900 I will re-open a short position.
If price continues heading up and breaks the next MAJOR TREND LINE, looking for my next TP between $9300-9600. Should this happen, I'll be convinced that this was just a bounce/dip and will be looking for a small drop back to current levels $8900-9100 allowing for me to add to my long position before price continues up.
If price breaks down from this level, I'll let me SL hit at break even around $8900 and look to re-open my short position anticipating continuation downward and an overall market reversal.
If price continues heading up and breaks the next MAJOR TREND LINE, looking for my next TP between $9300-9600. Should this happen, I'll be convinced that this was just a bounce/dip and will be looking for a small drop back to current levels $8900-9100 allowing for me to add to my long position before price continues up.
If price breaks down from this level, I'll let me SL hit at break even around $8900 and look to re-open my short position anticipating continuation downward and an overall market reversal.