Yesterday I closed longs from my last swing trade (a little too early). We had a big 15 minute candle but no follow through. Went lower and retesting the overnight consolidation. So I'll short this area.
The basic situation is that we are in a bear market until we aren't. We had a rally then 2 weeks of chop and a rally that couldn't start a trend. We are in a cycle band for a high and hitting this horizontal resistance area. So this isn't a tough decision.
If we pick up buyers and can get past $4100 then I'll take my stop loss and wait to see if we get a liquidity hunt or if we can make $4100 support. Higher daily close today would be bullish so don't want to stay short if we break this resistance. Either we fail here or we look for short at next area of weakness. I'm expecting to short price in that blue box. Either we got it yesterday or will come sometime this week.
What Will it Take to Go Bullish?
If we can start a strong bullish trend and make it past 30 days and over $4500 then that would set up a potential bullish cycle. That would be welcome because I would rather trade bullish. Those green boxes would something to look for maybe go 35+ days then pullback and retest $4500. That would be ideal. Then if the next cycle could get over $6000, we'd have a weekly swing high and I shift to a neutral/bullish stance and start looking for bullish long term swing trades.
But at this stage in the cycle and still in a long term bearish trend, its too late for me to trade bullish. In other words, I want the market to prove its ready to turn before I hold out for higher prices.
The basic situation is that we are in a bear market until we aren't. We had a rally then 2 weeks of chop and a rally that couldn't start a trend. We are in a cycle band for a high and hitting this horizontal resistance area. So this isn't a tough decision.
If we pick up buyers and can get past $4100 then I'll take my stop loss and wait to see if we get a liquidity hunt or if we can make $4100 support. Higher daily close today would be bullish so don't want to stay short if we break this resistance. Either we fail here or we look for short at next area of weakness. I'm expecting to short price in that blue box. Either we got it yesterday or will come sometime this week.
What Will it Take to Go Bullish?
If we can start a strong bullish trend and make it past 30 days and over $4500 then that would set up a potential bullish cycle. That would be welcome because I would rather trade bullish. Those green boxes would something to look for maybe go 35+ days then pullback and retest $4500. That would be ideal. Then if the next cycle could get over $6000, we'd have a weekly swing high and I shift to a neutral/bullish stance and start looking for bullish long term swing trades.
But at this stage in the cycle and still in a long term bearish trend, its too late for me to trade bullish. In other words, I want the market to prove its ready to turn before I hold out for higher prices.
Comment:
We got the move we were looking for. I"m now moving stops to around $4000 which would be a small profit. If we recover that area or make new highs then that would be very bullish and I would not short this again. This is the move we looked for and we expect continuation of downside into the cycle low.
I think we'll go down a bit further and but those green boxes would be areas to book a little profit. I wouldn't take too much at $3500 area but you could potentially take a small profit to guarantee profit then look to reshort a bounce.
If we got a big move to lows I would very likely close 30% of this short because I think its highly unlikely that we break to new lows immediately. I think its more likely we chop around before going below $3000. And I would not be surprised to see a big chop between $3100 and $3600 that lasts the next 3-4 weeks then potentially breaking near the end of the cycle. (have no idea if that will happen but be prepared for that type of price action as it can test your patience).
We got the move we were looking for. I"m now moving stops to around $4000 which would be a small profit. If we recover that area or make new highs then that would be very bullish and I would not short this again. This is the move we looked for and we expect continuation of downside into the cycle low.
I think we'll go down a bit further and but those green boxes would be areas to book a little profit. I wouldn't take too much at $3500 area but you could potentially take a small profit to guarantee profit then look to reshort a bounce.
If we got a big move to lows I would very likely close 30% of this short because I think its highly unlikely that we break to new lows immediately. I think its more likely we chop around before going below $3000. And I would not be surprised to see a big chop between $3100 and $3600 that lasts the next 3-4 weeks then potentially breaking near the end of the cycle. (have no idea if that will happen but be prepared for that type of price action as it can test your patience).
Comment:
One more point. Just in case you aren't convinced. It is a bearish sign that we completely ignored that support zone. That should have triggered at least pause and the fact that we didn't is another sign in the charts that suggests we will go lower.
One more point. Just in case you aren't convinced. It is a bearish sign that we completely ignored that support zone. That should have triggered at least pause and the fact that we didn't is another sign in the charts that suggests we will go lower.
Comment:
We have major momentum day. I will not be taking profits. This is going to go much lower.
This chart is showing how the longs added in that box. The hope of the IHS and long consolidation was a pipe dream. THESE LONG ARE TRAPPED! They were not given a chance to get out. They are shitting themselves.
There is no way that smart money lets them out. My guess is that we either collapse further or we move to that blue line and trapped longs will start selling. I will be making a major addition to my short if we get to that blue line.
We have major momentum day. I will not be taking profits. This is going to go much lower.
This chart is showing how the longs added in that box. The hope of the IHS and long consolidation was a pipe dream. THESE LONG ARE TRAPPED! They were not given a chance to get out. They are shitting themselves.
There is no way that smart money lets them out. My guess is that we either collapse further or we move to that blue line and trapped longs will start selling. I will be making a major addition to my short if we get to that blue line.
Comment:
I took some profit here on BTC. Price action still leads me to believe that we will have some choppy trading and since this was a quick trade from $4k, I don't mind booking a little here. Sometimes this won't pan out but I think I still think chances are good we retest $3750 area this week.
I completely closed my Ethereum short. Eth has been crushed and there is a hard fork that should happen mid week. That was a good trade so I'm extremely happy about it and don't want to see my profits get eaten if people pile into ETH before the fork, which should happen Wed morning last time I checked.
The hard fork increases the chances that you get last minute pump.
I completely closed my Ethereum short. Eth has been crushed and there is a hard fork that should happen mid week. That was a good trade so I'm extremely happy about it and don't want to see my profits get eaten if people pile into ETH before the fork, which should happen Wed morning last time I checked.
The hard fork increases the chances that you get last minute pump.
Comment:
That's why I took some profit. I'm looking to reshort but need to be patient. So far this move up is holding well, so I will wait until we form consolidation then try to buy the top of the range. Unless we get a really big volume sell candle. this could go up over $3800 here.
That's why I took some profit. I'm looking to reshort but need to be patient. So far this move up is holding well, so I will wait until we form consolidation then try to buy the top of the range. Unless we get a really big volume sell candle. this could go up over $3800 here.
Comment:
In bitcoin, closes are important. Daily, 4 hour, hourly. We get so many wicks due to low volume that you don't know exactly what is real buying and what are stop runs.That wick up earlier today had no volume and was likely just someone running stops. But its telling that buyers did not hop on and try to drive this higher.
That red line is the break of the previous range and yesterday's close. If we close below that line, that would be bearish. Close to and and its certainly not bullish. Bulls want to close near highs and start consolidating over $3700. That would open up tests of the $3800 area.
This is only a $150 move and after a huge move down, bulls need to show some strength or this was just a liquidity run and people that got trapped above $3700 are going to get nervous and start selling.
In bitcoin, closes are important. Daily, 4 hour, hourly. We get so many wicks due to low volume that you don't know exactly what is real buying and what are stop runs.That wick up earlier today had no volume and was likely just someone running stops. But its telling that buyers did not hop on and try to drive this higher.
That red line is the break of the previous range and yesterday's close. If we close below that line, that would be bearish. Close to and and its certainly not bullish. Bulls want to close near highs and start consolidating over $3700. That would open up tests of the $3800 area.
This is only a $150 move and after a huge move down, bulls need to show some strength or this was just a liquidity run and people that got trapped above $3700 are going to get nervous and start selling.
Comment:
I posted on twitter last night I thought PA suggested we would bounce back up. I covered my short and now waiting.
We are now in a range (blue lines) and trading at range highs. I'm looking for 3 things. We get weak and head down towards the $3600. If we close below $3600 I will start to rebuild the short I covered.
I believe its more likely that we either trade that top of the range at $3700 or go test the failed support on the original drop at $3750-$3850 mark.
I'll wait for consolidation to develop. Sideways move at $3700 with a lot of high volume wicks and I start shorting there. If we close an hourly about $3700 then I'll be more patient.
(I still have part of my position from the $4k area short, but looking to rebuy what I covered).
I posted on twitter last night I thought PA suggested we would bounce back up. I covered my short and now waiting.
We are now in a range (blue lines) and trading at range highs. I'm looking for 3 things. We get weak and head down towards the $3600. If we close below $3600 I will start to rebuild the short I covered.
I believe its more likely that we either trade that top of the range at $3700 or go test the failed support on the original drop at $3750-$3850 mark.
I'll wait for consolidation to develop. Sideways move at $3700 with a lot of high volume wicks and I start shorting there. If we close an hourly about $3700 then I'll be more patient.
(I still have part of my position from the $4k area short, but looking to rebuy what I covered).
Comment:
Just something I noticed.
Fractals make for an interesting observation, but they WILL break and so they are tough to trade. What is most important is to realize that we could spend a few days in the range. So if you have a short bias, you can short the top of the range with tight stops and if we close that hourly above the range get out and wait for higher prices.
Just something I noticed.
Fractals make for an interesting observation, but they WILL break and so they are tough to trade. What is most important is to realize that we could spend a few days in the range. So if you have a short bias, you can short the top of the range with tight stops and if we close that hourly above the range get out and wait for higher prices.
Comment:
The last chart followed through with the fract. The fract says we could go up.
However, I look at price action and took a short based on the triangle reaction and following candles. Strong selling here. I have a stop at the high. If we break that candle then I think we go up.
I'm looking for us to just continue to sell. If this is a real rejection we should struggle to move up. If we flatten out and start slowly climbing back then I will get out of the position.
This is an example of a price action trade. I usually don't post these because its very hard to follow. I do not recommend taking this trade unless you know what you're doing. It requires you to monitor. I will get out of the trade if I don't get the price action I expect.
Price action is more important than stops or targets. But I do have a stop in place at $3650 in case it pops.
The last chart followed through with the fract. The fract says we could go up.
However, I look at price action and took a short based on the triangle reaction and following candles. Strong selling here. I have a stop at the high. If we break that candle then I think we go up.
I'm looking for us to just continue to sell. If this is a real rejection we should struggle to move up. If we flatten out and start slowly climbing back then I will get out of the position.
This is an example of a price action trade. I usually don't post these because its very hard to follow. I do not recommend taking this trade unless you know what you're doing. It requires you to monitor. I will get out of the trade if I don't get the price action I expect.
Price action is more important than stops or targets. But I do have a stop in place at $3650 in case it pops.
Comment:
Yeah. I'm not busy today so I'm day trading. Here's what I'm looking for. Keep in mind that there is no guarantee any of this happens but having expectations helps guide you into a potential low risk trades.
The red line is what happens if there are no buyers at support. We'd just chop around near $3600. Closing below it is the first bearish sign but closing below $3580 is the better confirmation. Alternatively, we could see buyers hold up price at this red line which is local support and hold above the triangle.
The green happens if buyers accumulate and eat up sell orders. Then it holds and will curl up. Certainly we could start to curl and it fails but I'll be cautious if we start seeing a slow move up as thats usually a bullish sign in these situations. Yes, getting out of a trade at break even is perfectly find if you don't get the price action you expect. Even if its a fakeout.
The entire purpose of taking trades like this is to get into a position and watch it evolve to meet your expectations. If you do then you can make nice trades with tight stops. I get stopped out all the time on these but when you get a winner, they are usually nice profit.
With bitcoin, closes are important. Chances are good we could get a wick up or wick down. DoWe could get another wick under $3580, but if its bought up then its just a deviation that doesn't matter.
Yeah. I'm not busy today so I'm day trading. Here's what I'm looking for. Keep in mind that there is no guarantee any of this happens but having expectations helps guide you into a potential low risk trades.
The red line is what happens if there are no buyers at support. We'd just chop around near $3600. Closing below it is the first bearish sign but closing below $3580 is the better confirmation. Alternatively, we could see buyers hold up price at this red line which is local support and hold above the triangle.
The green happens if buyers accumulate and eat up sell orders. Then it holds and will curl up. Certainly we could start to curl and it fails but I'll be cautious if we start seeing a slow move up as thats usually a bullish sign in these situations. Yes, getting out of a trade at break even is perfectly find if you don't get the price action you expect. Even if its a fakeout.
The entire purpose of taking trades like this is to get into a position and watch it evolve to meet your expectations. If you do then you can make nice trades with tight stops. I get stopped out all the time on these but when you get a winner, they are usually nice profit.
With bitcoin, closes are important. Chances are good we could get a wick up or wick down. DoWe could get another wick under $3580, but if its bought up then its just a deviation that doesn't matter.
Comment:
So what we have so far is leaning more towards bullish. I'm still holding but if we get a burst up, I would get stopped out with a small loss. In order for this to remain bullish it needs to continue to just work its way up. If we get a spike that gets sold off then bearish. Otherwise if we continue to trickle up like this I will get out of this short trade.
It can go retest that triangle at the top and get rejected, but if we get that price action I will close the trade and I won't be interested in a long or short. Another move to $3640 from here would open up too much risk of a burst higher and RR will no longer be on my side.
So what we have so far is leaning more towards bullish. I'm still holding but if we get a burst up, I would get stopped out with a small loss. In order for this to remain bullish it needs to continue to just work its way up. If we get a spike that gets sold off then bearish. Otherwise if we continue to trickle up like this I will get out of this short trade.
It can go retest that triangle at the top and get rejected, but if we get that price action I will close the trade and I won't be interested in a long or short. Another move to $3640 from here would open up too much risk of a burst higher and RR will no longer be on my side.
Comment:
So we this is following the green and slowly curling up.
I'm out of this trade at $3630
I'm out of this trade at $3630
Comment:
We hit that $3700-$3800 and no buyers to be found, leading to drop out of the range. My best guess here is we retest lows and bounce. If we don't bounce at lows and cut right through then we could be in for a big move down. I think its more likely we bounce and then retest $3500 and then come down and make the cycle low in February. May only be a slightly lower or low or a double bottom. Doesn't appear that we have many aggressive bears left, but lets see how the next 2 weeks play out.
Because this has been choppy, non-trending I will cover my short at $3200. Then if we break down I will consider reshorting.
We hit that $3700-$3800 and no buyers to be found, leading to drop out of the range. My best guess here is we retest lows and bounce. If we don't bounce at lows and cut right through then we could be in for a big move down. I think its more likely we bounce and then retest $3500 and then come down and make the cycle low in February. May only be a slightly lower or low or a double bottom. Doesn't appear that we have many aggressive bears left, but lets see how the next 2 weeks play out.
Because this has been choppy, non-trending I will cover my short at $3200. Then if we break down I will consider reshorting.
Comment:
Nothing changed. More choppy action. I am looking for bitcoin to hit that red area and bounce. Again, I will cover my short at that point.
It's day 41 so feasible any move down can make a cycle low. It would be a little early but the last cycle was long so it wouldn't be uncommon to have a short cycle. For that reason I will take 50% long at the red and look at the reaction. If its strong and we get a swing, then I'll look to add at the next cycle.
I do have a concern that all this sideways action is redistribution and could lead to a bigger move down. This would be a the red lines but could go much further down. So be careful. I've been hoping to see capitulation low form and the timing of weekly cycle would make a for an incredible long entry.
Could we find buyers at the range low and make a cycle low right now? Sure, but it would be a rare cycle formation with a day 9 top, so no statistical advantage to playing it.
Nothing changed. More choppy action. I am looking for bitcoin to hit that red area and bounce. Again, I will cover my short at that point.
It's day 41 so feasible any move down can make a cycle low. It would be a little early but the last cycle was long so it wouldn't be uncommon to have a short cycle. For that reason I will take 50% long at the red and look at the reaction. If its strong and we get a swing, then I'll look to add at the next cycle.
I do have a concern that all this sideways action is redistribution and could lead to a bigger move down. This would be a the red lines but could go much further down. So be careful. I've been hoping to see capitulation low form and the timing of weekly cycle would make a for an incredible long entry.
Could we find buyers at the range low and make a cycle low right now? Sure, but it would be a rare cycle formation with a day 9 top, so no statistical advantage to playing it.
Comment:
I said I'd look to add at next cycle. I mean to say that I'd look to add at next swing. IF we were to successfully test lows and find bullish price action, I'd look for us to clear the range and make it support and I would buy that support.
I said I'd look to add at next cycle. I mean to say that I'd look to add at next swing. IF we were to successfully test lows and find bullish price action, I'd look for us to clear the range and make it support and I would buy that support.
Comment:
Everyone's talking about this fractal but its crazy how long its held true and if it holds this time, we should see a strong move down today.
Everyone's talking about this fractal but its crazy how long its held true and if it holds this time, we should see a strong move down today.
Comment:
Closing shorts.
Taking profit on short from $4100 and my leveraged short from $3700.
May still go lower, but this choppy action brings too much uncertainty so I would rather just watch to see what happens. If we get a bounce, then I might play a small long in case this markets the cycle low.
Closing shorts.
Taking profit on short from $4100 and my leveraged short from $3700.
May still go lower, but this choppy action brings too much uncertainty so I would rather just watch to see what happens. If we get a bounce, then I might play a small long in case this markets the cycle low.
Comment:
Quick note. The reaction so far looks weak, so I wouldn't go long yet. We are on day 44 and could take a few weeks to find a low including new lows. I just wanted to realized my profits and plan a long.
I'll make some small short term trades while I'm looking for a low, but its too hard to update day trades. I'll make a new post when I see a good long (though I will very likely buy the first test of $3250 if it finds support as this type of retest often bounces.)
I'll make some small short term trades while I'm looking for a low, but its too hard to update day trades. I'll make a new post when I see a good long (though I will very likely buy the first test of $3250 if it finds support as this type of retest often bounces.)
Why am I looking to short day 20-30 days into a bearish cycle? (the blue box)
Because most cycles are 50-60 days long and thats just before the half cycle point. This is a full year showing that we topped within 30 days every time so far. So I'll short every rally until this market proves its bullish. When is that? When it can run a bullish cycle 35-45 days long. (that would be green boxes).
When will we go bullish? I have no idea. My guess is that we have one more low to make in February, but it could be that we turn around right here and have a bullish run for the next 2 weeks. When we do, I'll start changing strategy. Until then I'll short rallies.
I shorted all of these rallies here. I certainly got stopped out a few times and didn't always get the exact top. I didn't get the last big move from $6500 because I wasn't trading. I also longed all the cycle lows except I didn't long most of the move to $8500 in July as I was looking for us to break below $6k, but I didn't take any losses on that move either.