Bitcoin Hits $10,000 With “The Halving” Around The Corner - Top?
Good morning, folks. Let’s dive right in with a heady topic, and my friends warned me to not just give this one away, but I will — Alpha Trades uses Tradinglite software for forensic analysis of volume, it’s a kind of liquidity heat map. You can check out the software for yourself (we’re not affiliates, just happy customers), but now that cat’s out of the bag. So what’s Tradinglite telling us about Bitcoin?
For starters, the sell walls that were holding Bitcoin down disappeared early this morning (CST). I identified multimillion-dollar walls around 10,200 and 10,300 around 6:30 AM (CST) which may be gone by the time you read this. Since the other day, significant walls around 10,000 have been chewed through. The question is whether that paves an easier path for Bitcoin to climb upward, and the answer is “Yes and no”.
In terms of market dynamics, retail traders only assist in helping drive the market in the direction it’s already accelerating towards. The real market drivers — like professionals, bots, and algorithms — do the heavy lifting, while everyone else follows. Coming in with that perspective, consider how the price hit a critical area, which is 10,000.
Yesterday I shared three successful trades. The first was a long at 9168 with an exit between 9300 and 9240, then I reentered long at 9340 on the breakout of the triangle and took profit at 9475 and 9600.
I then took one more long at 9550 and took profit at 9700 and 9950. Bitcoin pushed above 10,000 after that. Understanding the importance of removing bias and taking profit at key levels while shoring up stop losses, I was able to make three consecutive profitable long trades despite maintaining that price could pull back viciously.
Where many traders fail is that they enter over-leveraged trades and this leads to bias in the price going in a particular direction, and when it doesn’t, under the spell of fear, less experienced traders may double-down on a losing position, remove their stop losses, or make a panicked decision to close their position too early. As a side note, there’s been an alarming uptick of brand-new retail traders in the overall markets in the past couple of months, and I worry that many of these new traders will get burned.
Have a game plan and stick to it — systems are crucial for long-term success as a trader. Now back to Bitcoin.
The four-hour time frame is printing a clear bearish divergence with a lower high on the RSI and a higher high in price. The OBE indicator, which is “on-balance volume,” reveals inflows and outflows of an asset, has only weakly followed price action, which to me supports the bearish divergence. The run-up to around 10,080 appears to have exhausted buyers while part of that run may have been on the back of traders covering short positions or being liquidated. There was also a decent amount of spot buying volume yesterday, so the reason for this break above 10,000 is multi-faceted. What I am waiting to see is a break of the bearish divergence with OBV moving higher, and it may require Bitcoin to go to 10,500 or even 11,000 to reset the divergence.
Let’s look at the three-day time frame. Bitcoin is just poking above the multi-month descending trend line originating from June 2019 and is attempting to form a higher high compared to February 2020.
If Bitcoin closes another candle up there followed by another bullish candle, chances are the price will visit 10,500.
Our analyst Amol covers a hypothetical multi-month inverse head and shoulders pattern in today’s video, which you can find at the bottom of this article. We’ve had eight straight weeks of powerful bullish momentum in markets overall, and looking from the weekly perspective, the price is reaching a key resistance area around 10,172.
If Bitcoin breaks the current ascending trend line (as seen in the chart above), that would be a bad sign for bulls, especially if the price breaks the 9240 marker. A lot can happen before the price gets to that level, so we’ll stay focused on the present.
In summary, I’m looking for pullbacks as long opportunities, and until I see a four-hour or daily turnaround, I am not looking to enter an aggressive short position. None of this is investment advice, but if I were to open a short this close to the recent high, my stop would be above 10,080.
The media is pumping Bitcoin — Don’t fall for it!
Yesterday, Paul Tudor Jones (famous investor-philanthropist), discussed buying Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. I’m not saying it’s certain that he’s doing this, but it’s a brilliant strategy to go on major media networks and hype Bitcoin only to unload on your retail fans. Be careful when wealthy people talk up any asset, especially in manipulated market conditions such as what we’re in today, and with Bitcoin reaching a crucial resistance level. Where were these investors when Bitcoin was below 4000? I urge you to be careful of these talking heads dumping their Bitcoin bags on you.
The Bitcoin halving is right around the corner. Despite the overall condition of markets, Bitcoin and the rest have climbed above or near pre-coronavirus levels in only eight weeks without any meaningful retracement. I implore you to be careful, take profit often, and keep your stops as tight as possible.
Disclaimer
Information provided by Alpha Trades, LLC is not intended to be utilized in making any financial decisions and is not a solicitation, nor recommendation to buy, hold, and/or sell a particular product, digital asset, or ICO.
For starters, the sell walls that were holding Bitcoin down disappeared early this morning (CST). I identified multimillion-dollar walls around 10,200 and 10,300 around 6:30 AM (CST) which may be gone by the time you read this. Since the other day, significant walls around 10,000 have been chewed through. The question is whether that paves an easier path for Bitcoin to climb upward, and the answer is “Yes and no”.
In terms of market dynamics, retail traders only assist in helping drive the market in the direction it’s already accelerating towards. The real market drivers — like professionals, bots, and algorithms — do the heavy lifting, while everyone else follows. Coming in with that perspective, consider how the price hit a critical area, which is 10,000.
Yesterday I shared three successful trades. The first was a long at 9168 with an exit between 9300 and 9240, then I reentered long at 9340 on the breakout of the triangle and took profit at 9475 and 9600.
I then took one more long at 9550 and took profit at 9700 and 9950. Bitcoin pushed above 10,000 after that. Understanding the importance of removing bias and taking profit at key levels while shoring up stop losses, I was able to make three consecutive profitable long trades despite maintaining that price could pull back viciously.
Where many traders fail is that they enter over-leveraged trades and this leads to bias in the price going in a particular direction, and when it doesn’t, under the spell of fear, less experienced traders may double-down on a losing position, remove their stop losses, or make a panicked decision to close their position too early. As a side note, there’s been an alarming uptick of brand-new retail traders in the overall markets in the past couple of months, and I worry that many of these new traders will get burned.
Have a game plan and stick to it — systems are crucial for long-term success as a trader. Now back to Bitcoin.
The four-hour time frame is printing a clear bearish divergence with a lower high on the RSI and a higher high in price. The OBE indicator, which is “on-balance volume,” reveals inflows and outflows of an asset, has only weakly followed price action, which to me supports the bearish divergence. The run-up to around 10,080 appears to have exhausted buyers while part of that run may have been on the back of traders covering short positions or being liquidated. There was also a decent amount of spot buying volume yesterday, so the reason for this break above 10,000 is multi-faceted. What I am waiting to see is a break of the bearish divergence with OBV moving higher, and it may require Bitcoin to go to 10,500 or even 11,000 to reset the divergence.
Let’s look at the three-day time frame. Bitcoin is just poking above the multi-month descending trend line originating from June 2019 and is attempting to form a higher high compared to February 2020.
If Bitcoin closes another candle up there followed by another bullish candle, chances are the price will visit 10,500.
Our analyst Amol covers a hypothetical multi-month inverse head and shoulders pattern in today’s video, which you can find at the bottom of this article. We’ve had eight straight weeks of powerful bullish momentum in markets overall, and looking from the weekly perspective, the price is reaching a key resistance area around 10,172.
If Bitcoin breaks the current ascending trend line (as seen in the chart above), that would be a bad sign for bulls, especially if the price breaks the 9240 marker. A lot can happen before the price gets to that level, so we’ll stay focused on the present.
In summary, I’m looking for pullbacks as long opportunities, and until I see a four-hour or daily turnaround, I am not looking to enter an aggressive short position. None of this is investment advice, but if I were to open a short this close to the recent high, my stop would be above 10,080.
The media is pumping Bitcoin — Don’t fall for it!
Yesterday, Paul Tudor Jones (famous investor-philanthropist), discussed buying Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. I’m not saying it’s certain that he’s doing this, but it’s a brilliant strategy to go on major media networks and hype Bitcoin only to unload on your retail fans. Be careful when wealthy people talk up any asset, especially in manipulated market conditions such as what we’re in today, and with Bitcoin reaching a crucial resistance level. Where were these investors when Bitcoin was below 4000? I urge you to be careful of these talking heads dumping their Bitcoin bags on you.
The Bitcoin halving is right around the corner. Despite the overall condition of markets, Bitcoin and the rest have climbed above or near pre-coronavirus levels in only eight weeks without any meaningful retracement. I implore you to be careful, take profit often, and keep your stops as tight as possible.
Disclaimer
Information provided by Alpha Trades, LLC is not intended to be utilized in making any financial decisions and is not a solicitation, nor recommendation to buy, hold, and/or sell a particular product, digital asset, or ICO.
Comment:
Personal BTC target for end of 2020 is approximately $2000
Comment:
The Modified Schiff Pitchfork shows us that we hit the $10000 marker of 75% fib. We have yet to break $10.5k which is significant resistance from Oct 2019 and Feb 2020. If we get past $10.5k doors open to $12.4k. Reject at $10.5k and chances are we put in a lower low than $3.1k
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