BTC is at top & Overbought territory

The last fakeout yesterday (2019-08-06) XBT pointed: this rally need more correction time before the next big run

(1) The market structure

There is a clear red trendline on 4H chart.
If you catch this and clone it several times : you can fit to the other lows/highs in the past one month.
This gives a clear market structure to us.


(2) Many doji candlestick pattern

On 12H, 6H timeframes you can see a many doji patterns -> meaning trend reversals!

(3) SHORT Momentum is very obviously here

Lets see... only bear signals, here is the list:

• daily MFI very overbought
  
• daily TD sequential needs only one green day to complete the 9th bear sequential under correction
  
• we are sitting right on the VPVR resistance
  
• every big trader taking holiday (ok, this was just a joke, but really guys....it's the mid of the summer..)
  
• second time micro-triple-divergences on the 4HR
  
• daily didn't finish the fib correction not even to 0.5!
  

CONCLUSION

I hate intradtay trading, so I'll setup a very conservative short with ~x2.5 margin in the next 24 hours. (NOT NOW, because I'm waiting some form in the next ~12hrs)

ENTRY: ~12K
STOP: 12.2K (+ after I was right, then some trailing stop)
TARGET#1: 9.3K
TARGET#2: 8.5K

My bearish view is invalidated if we can break strong up to 13k, and we can hold it! In that case I'll looking for some retrace before jumping into long.

Trade active:

This is what I'm waiting for overnight:
Mutch more dojis, lower highs, no breakout after dayclose, ADX momentum...
so I've opened a 10.990$ entry short.
Very tight stop at ~12.1k, with margin x4.

A bit down and I will open a long position with
my hedging account to make this short safer!

Trade active:

This is the killing kombo.
After I've opened a SHORT at the top,
I'm opening a LONG at the bottom now with my hedging account.
SHORT position's STOP lifted to 12.15K.
This LONG's STOP is 11.45k.
Eighter way goes it.... I will absolute win.

Comment:

UPDATE:
STOP of my SHORT is too tight!
I've changed it from 12.15 to 12.3k.
Reason of the risk I'm taking now:
yellow triangle spikes and because
I've insurenced by heding account's LONG.

Comment:

If we can't close above 12k today, a hanging man candlestick will forming.
In that case + because its friday (cme close) I don't expent more bullish moves.... But this is bitcoin so who knows guys.
This is why I'm hedging against myself almost always when I can /like today/

Comment:

Second test to breakdown.
Yesterday candle closed a hanging man...not a very bullish candle pattern....

I think : only we can breaking up with a very strong price manipulation.

However both position (NORMAL:SHORT, HEDGING: LONG) are still open.

Comment:

I'm updating my already opened position's STOP levels.
On the chart you can see either way loss percents.
I've opened with 4x margin both since days.

Short opened : 11.990$
Now the stop is : ~12.1k

Long opened : 11.739$
Now the stop is: 11.489$

Trade closed: stop reached:

MAIN ACCOUNT's SHORT position in ~20% profit now :D
I'm modify the short positon's STOP to 11.870K

HEDGING LONG position stopped automatically.

Comment:

Yesterday 100M of LONG liquidated.
My Current SHORT in 20% profit with margin, still open.
Doesn't seems like we will reverse the bear breakdown, but safety first:
I'm adjusting my current SHORT to the 0.7 FIB.
new STOP: $11.8k

Comment:

New stop above 11.700$
FIB updated (but still at 0.786)
This means worst case (if the stop hits) the profit is 10% (with my current 4x margin)
If we can break above 12k, then I will looking for longs.

Comment:

On bigger view literally happened nothing.
Potencial targets marked.

Comment:

Updated trailing stop line.
Worst case : 20% profit now.

Trade closed manually:

I've closed this MAIN ACCOUNT'S short manually at 10.050$. MORE THAN 60% profit reached ;)