BTC will show you: SIR, WHEN MOON?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar

I think, everybody need to spending more time to analyse the current market structures before starting to trade.

I personally can not trade without these steps, YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND which circumstances are there on market, before you want to ride some wave.

"Why 9.5? Why 12k?"
So today I will show you: why BITCOIN moves these levels.

If you don't have time, at the bottom are the CONCLUSION

I will use only ONE indicator to do that. This is the fibonacci retrace levels.
Some people not using well this indicator, because they didn't learn how to use this.

I will use only weekly chart today to show that, after this lession you will understanding the current movement zones of the BTC . (no, I'm not an illuminati....this is only the order of nature!)

(1) Define the major highs and lows

I'm now not interested for any trendlines!
First to do, only catch the top/low of the cart.
This is easy, TOP: 20k LOW: 3.2K

(2) Draw the downward fib levels

First, only use these levels: 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, .0786
Switch off everything else on fib indicator settings.

After that you can define the downward channel fib:

Must be "luck".... 0.618 is the strongest retrace level (13-14k).
On this chart after a big bear correction : the highest point where it can go with one bull wave: almost always the 0.618.

So this will be our lew local TOP, because the price cannot break above this level since almost 2 months!

(3) Draw the upward fib levels

Link to this local top the absolute bottom. This will be the second fib level.

This is kind of messy at this point, but here is the thing : now we can detect some interesting thing!

(4) Define the major price zones & engravings

You must clearly see now: there are a few levels wich are almost equal price levels!

down 0.61 = up 0 : 13.1k-13.9k
down 0.5 = up 0.23 : 11.5k
down 0.38 = up 0.38 : 9.5k-9.7k
down 0.23 = up 0.61 : 7k-7.2k

Do you see some engraving at 8.5k? Or 8k? .... okay, because I can not see either!
Only at upward fib have 0.5 retace at 8.5k, but we are looking for larger engravings, right?! So the 8.5k definetly not of them....

(5) Clear the chat out

Remove every fib level because we dont need them anymore.

Now you can see the clear picture now:


Q: Is the 8-8.5k zone a strong support?
A: Hell, no. Maybe stopping the price there, but I will not calling the 8k for the final correction bottom if bulls cannot hold 11.5k!

Q: So what is the lowest possible price for BTC from now?
A: 7K . If we will go below this, you better to sell them all, and run away while you crying like a little girl....

Q: Then where will we go now?
A: Nobody knows. Never knows. We are not wizzards. Bitcoin will go there he wants to go. We are just defining the profitable and interesting momentums and price levels and watch.

Q: When to moon?
A: After we will crossing and close weekly above 14k . AFTER that you can wait for 20k, 50k,100k,300k....etc BEFORE that.... I'm not permabull.

Q: We are on bearmarket?
A: Definitly not. But the current rally's correction didn't ended yet unde 14k .

Q: What kind of positions to open if fail to hold 11.5k?
A: I'm looking for shorts under 11.5k ( T1: 10k, T2: 7.5k)

Q: What kind of positions to open if HOLD the 11.5k?
A: I'm looking for longs above 11.5k ( T1: 13.8k, T2: MOON )

My yesterday position's description here.

If you like my point of view: follow me on Twitter and subscribe to my newsletter.

Comment: Of corse, if you are expanding the chart to the prev. bull brun: you can see more equalities.

But the strongest zones are still ~9.5k & 7k.
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